"China is preparing to INVADE Taiwan in Fall" Topic

Interesting, gregmita. The political training is about what I expected, but I did not know about the corruption. But not surprised.

I think Chinese quality control is in the back of many minds as we look at their naval expansion. Who knows?

A couple of American politicians are directly invested on a large scale in Chinese shipping. I am wondering if they connect to Chinese naval development in any way. No names, no DH, but it makes me uncomfortable to think about these kind of ties. Or is their venture a separate one?

Actually I just looked it up and while their ships are built by the Chinese state owned builder, they don't seem to have anything to do with the navy. It'd a family thing, don't even know who is connected. My bad. They have had some controversies, apparently, but not over this.

I had no idea any military would spend that much time on indoctrination, etc. as the PRC/CCP does.

"The Party must control the Gun, the Gun must never control the Party."
One important thing to remember is that the PLA is a Party military, not a national military. It's the equivalent of the SS, not the Wehrmacht. Political reliability is more important than combat effectiveness, if there is a conflict between the two.

A couple of interesting pieces of anecdote:

- A few years ago, I read the posts of a PLA veteran on an online forum about his experience. He (a former PLAGF enlisted) said that during his time, he was always given two notebooks. In one of them, he had to write down quotations that he found inspiring or informative, from Marx, Lenin, Chairman Mao, Chairman Xi, etc. In the other one, he had to write down all of his ideological failings, i.e. whenever he had thoughts of laziness or indifference to ideology, whenever he doubted the wisdom of his leaders, etc. The two notebooks were expected to be filled and replaced with new ones in a regular basis.

- I watched the company that made my 3D printer grow from a few geeks and enthusiasts to a decent sized enterprise in the last 10 years or so. Recently, I saw a company video where their top leadership had to sit around and discuss political ideology, and the role that their company plays in Chairman Xi's plans.
Needless to say, my next 3D printer will be a Prusa.

A couple of American politicians are directly invested on a large scale in Chinese shipping.

A lot more than a couple of American politicians are involved in business with the PRC, including in vital industries and infrastructure. Although, of the people who have done business in China, I can see different groups. There are those who were continuously burned by the way business is done in China, see the rigged game, and decided to advocate against it. There are also those who have been paid well to advocate for it.
A lot of lists are publicly available if you search for them, about political, business, and media groups and individuals who are affiliated with organizations like CUSEF (China-United States Exchange Foundation).

Morale: A Tale Of Two Militaries

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Armand

How The U.S. Can Lose A War With China Over Taiwan In One Week

AMERICA faces defeat by China in a war over Taiwan in just a week and needs to "urgently" up its preparations, a leading expert has said.

The chilling warning from Oriana Skylar Mastro, an authority on China's military and US Air Force strategist, comes after years of simulations showing crushing defeats for America…"

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Armand

"The Party must control the Gun, the Gun must never control the Party."

The PRC/CCP cares little about their losses as do the Russians.

The tabloid domesday language doesn't help this portrayal, but mostly there is no mention of how difficult a huge amphibious invasion would be.

And the idea that direct missile strikes on American forces in Okinawa would not result in rapid response from the US while the Chinese invade is not very likely, IMO. It's a Pearl Harbor style act of war. I suspect there are contingency plans in place. China is not likely to be able to mount this whole operation, huge as it would be, without intel uncovering at least some of it in advance.

This is from the Murdochs Sun, the agenda is not journalism, IMO

And the idea that direct missile strikes on American forces in Okinawa would not result in rapid response from the US while the Chinese invade is not very likely, IMO.

This is exactly my thought on scenarios about Chinese missile strikes. If American (and Japanese!) air bases are in play, what about Chinese naval facilities in Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, and Sanya? Back in 2010, the USN gathered 3 of the 4 Ohio class SSGNs in the Pacific. This is easily doable even today. So assuming nothing is left of American surface forces in the region after these magically unforseen Chinese missile attacks, China will no longer have naval facilities after the up to 154 Tomahawk missiles in *each* of those subs are launched. And that's just 3 submarines, assuming no other strike assets are available. And this is also assuming all those Taiwanese missiles, some of which have as long a range as Tomahawks and some of which are supersonic, also are all destroyed.

This is from the Murdochs Sun, the agenda is not journalism, IMO

I've actually seen this type of analysis from a lot of very different sources, not just tabloids. There are recent books published by American admirals that talk about how China will magically win in the near future.

The subs keep getting left out of this. I am not sure China could get any of our carriers anyway. Why would we assume that we can read about this in a tabloid, but the Navy has no clue and does not know what to do?

Anyways, the Chinese are no match for the Virginias. I would expect them to be able to be in position pretty quickly with a little bit of warning, and they are very hard to detect. As you say, it's not like we don't know anything about Chinese targets.

Beijing Rejects NASA's Claim That China Wants To Take Over The Moon

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Armand

Bezos will be there before any of them. And Starbucks.

Bezos & Musk may just have to buy China … And the moon … 🌕 Didn't Heinlein write a short story about that ?

Yes, robber barons! That's an old one.

Forgot about that one !

Ha!…

Armand

China's influence hard to ignore in Solomon Islands' capital Honiara, as Australia warned it could be 'left behind'

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With Chinese invasion looming, Taiwan's troops seek tech support from American vets

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Armand

China Acquiring New Weapons Five Times Faster Than U.S. Warns Top Official

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Armand

IMO:
Our procurement system has been slow and wasteful for decades. It's not just contractors getting rich, it's the military driving contractors crazy with changing specs, lack of focus, tactical and strategic.

We are beating ourselves. The Chinese could surpass us in weapons theoretically, but they have their own internal problems.. Their economy may not sustain military growth in such strength. The economic issues affecting the US are happening across the globe. War and pandemic related. We are far better off than many, if not most, other countries.

There is no reason not to fix procurement. But change will have to come from within the military itself. We still make the best stuff, but we do not get our money's worth.

The PRC/CCP continues to warn the USA not to get involved with defending, etc. Taiwan. The USA, needs to spend $ on building up our military. As the world is still a very bad place.

However, we have a recruiting problem. IMO the economy was bad as it is, we would expect enlistments to go up. It's not happening. There is more to work here than $. USD As I talked about on another thread. You can make all the weapons systems you want. But you still need soldiers, sailors, etc. to man those weapons.

Seems the PRC does not have that problem …

We will not get recruits in this economy with wages rising, another good jobs report, almost no unemployment. Unless the military learns how to market itself and invest some of that wasted money in people we are gonna have trouble.

We can't keep talking about how terrible things are just to score political points to win the next election. Inflation is bad, but the economy is hot and the Fed might yet find the balance we need. This recovery has been tough because of Covid, but even with the next wave on the way, we are better prepared.

Right wing media is very intense in its campaigning right now, not showing much hard news, really skewing the economic picture. It's outrage time again, almost time to vote. I was in the UK not too long ago and gas was the equivalent of around 11 bucks a gallon. Not as bad here, people have hit the road again.

But not a lot of young people watch tv news. You get to them on social media. TicTok could recruit thousands right now.

To get good recruits you need a marketing strategy and better pay and support. It's a job for the Pentagon and PR professionals. You have to sell it. Dis associate it from politicians, they turn off the target audience. Make it cool, make it sound like a career move. I have never seen so little Army tv advertising, but they must know they cannot compete with so many jobs available in the private sector. When you need a new gizmo, you hire a contractor, when you need more people, you hire recruiters, not wait for the next recession.

We will not get recruits in this economy with wages rising, another good jobs report, almost no unemployment.

Disagree … 2/3 of Americans can't pay their bills. The inflation rate is higher than pay increases. 88% think the USA is going the wrong direction … and it is not a good one. There still are many unemployed. When I see help wanted signs everywhere.

Right wing media is very intense in its campaigning right now, not showing much hard news, really skewing the economic picture.

Again disagree … The poor economy is a fact no matter what those in power say. You can see it in prices of all things. My and everybody I know savings, stocks, etc. have lost thousands.

To get good recruits you need a marketing strategy and better pay and support.

Did you see the US Army recruiting cartoon a few months back ? It was embarrassing. Might be why they have not done another recently ?

As long as the belief that the economy is good and that is why the military can't get people to enlist. We will see this poor overall situation in the USA.

This Generation is not like any in the past. To get quality recruits, those that don't have records, can pass all the tests to get in the military. And even may be a little Patriotic, you are going to deflect all the woke, CRT/1619, transgenderism, etc., etc. That is found everywhere in society and the media. If they keep hearing the US is racist, xenophobic, homophobic, islamophobic, etc., etc. Why would anybody even join the military ? And risk their life and limbs for the USA.

We will have to somewhat disagree, Legion.

It's not that inflation isn't hurting all of us, and many have lost the money they made last year in the record high stock market. Like me, also, I am back down to 2019 levels. Not good at all and recession is possible, interest rates rising. No way rising wages will keep pace with inflation, nor do we want it too.

But unemployment is at 3.6 again this month, the GDP is 3.5 or so, the pandemic unemployed actually are returning to work, now nearly back to prepandemic levels. Manufacturing jobs increased last month, exports climbing.

I don't care what those in power say either after decades of BS. I bought my first house at 10.25% interest in 1988.

More than half of Americans could not pay their bills in 2019. Credit card debt is always trouble, but the pandemic left no choice and now the bills are due. Add in inflation and it hurts these people the most.

But this is about the Army getting good recruits during an ongoing stretch of low unemployment. They can't escape that 3.6 per cent figure. They need professional help to compete, IMO. Just the way every corporation and business in America is doing right now in the tight labor market.

The Army needs to get its act together on this, I believe, and find out WHY, people aren't interested. I don't care what is causing it. Time to fix it. If you can't compete here, forget about competing in a war if this continues,IMO.

Short answer we will have to again agree to disagree … But we can agree the economy affects military enlistments one way or another.

'nuff said …

Our procurement system has been slow and wasteful for decades.

This sort of commentary has been around since I was a child, first getting interested in weapon systems, i.e. during the Cold War. American systems were always criticized as too complex, too expensive, taking too long to develop, etc., especially compared to supposedly rugged, reliable, and more
numerous Soviet/Russian systems. Except when the tire hit the road, American equipment kicked their ass every time.

A lot of this was from the so-called reformers (i.e. the light fighter mafia), some were from Soviet disinformation, sometimes in combination with each other. More recently, they openly joined together – e.g. Pierre Sprey speaking on Russia Today against the F-35. We seem to have a similar situation with China now.

The LazerPig Loop is a good thing to remember:

I am not against procurement and I am not talking about the ultimate quality of our weapons, which are generally the best in the world. There are former defense contractor people here who can speak to the inefficiency of the military in purchasing, spec issues etc. We can do better, and should,is all I'm saying.

I do like your loop!

I don't know squat about Cold War Russian weapons procurement, how good there stuff was/is. Here is an uplifting article about the end of some $10,000 USD toilet seats for the Air Force.

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Heh, I'm certainly not saying military procurement is perfect, just that problems shouldn't be used to unwittingly provide a skewed picture of overall effectiveness. That can be dangerous if too many people believe in that skewed picture.
The toilet seat thing sounds like a lot of surprisingly common sourcing issues in civilian industry too. I'm guessing the military has a very different set of standards and allows much less competition in providing the new part?

The LazerPig Loop is from the incomparable LazerPig. He has a lot of excellent videos on equipment issues:

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It's Not Just About Taiwan

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Armand

A Run On Chinese Banks Is Growing

This story is being unreported in the West….

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Armand

China taking advantage of Philippines' neutrality, says expert

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Armand

China deploys tanks to secure banks after personal savings accounts declared "investment products" of the state

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‘Chinese media does not even mention' its talks with India over border dispute

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Armand

Yes, like the USSR in Hungary and Czechoslovakia in the past. The PRC/CCP loves to use AFVs to try to get things under control locally.

As I keep saying, China has a whole array of serious internal issues that it is barely keeping the lid on. And it's 105 degrees there. I think the fall invasion is off.

Top U.S. General Says China Is Becoming More Aggressive And Dangerous

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Armand

Torterella, yes, they do have a lot of problems internally, etc. So that always has to be a consideration when it comes to going to war, either way.

FWIW – Saw on the news, a very high-ranking member of Congress is going to Taiwan for … ? Against the Pentagon's wishes. But why should a gov't official listen to experts. E.g. A'stan

The PRC/CCPis a bit upset about this "brazen" move. So they are making threats and saber rattling, etc., etc. Not unexpected … They are so sensitive !

Yes Legion, I saw this also. I say let her go.. stay as long as she wants. if this is all it takes to rattle the Chinese, we can send all the rest of them. Who knew we had such a powerful weapon?

No idea why this trip is happening, but please fill the plane with micro chips before returning.

Yes, the problem with many of our elected & appointed leaders is they go on trips all over the world … but then they come back … 🌍

Kremlin Strongly Supports China On Taiwan. Warns US Against 'Provocative' Moves Toward China

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Chinese Army Tells Citizens To ‘Prepare For War'

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What to Expect From a Bolder Xi Jinping

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Armand

China Deploys Military Forces To Surround Taiwan

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Armand

Our Most Detailed Look Yet At China's Type 055 Super Destroyer

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Armand

The Chinese housing market just crashed, sucking about $1 USD Trillion out of the Chinese economy. I wonder what that ripple effect will look like, and how much will Xi pump up the foreign "threat" to distract from his domestic failures??

Would not be the first time a dictator, etc., used their failing economy and covered it up by starting a war … Again, the PRC/CCP has the numbers. But can they successfully invade Taiwan with little combat experience and the challenge of a complex amph invasion ? Something they never has done. Of course, like Russia/Putin, Xi/CCP cares little about loses of men & material …

As has been predicted. They have other problems as well. Its busy days ahead for Xi, and nothing as fun as a war. He is getting hit from several directions.

He's coming up for "reelection" … so he has to look good. Failing an invasion of Taiwan won't do that …

Could the US Navy Save Taiwan?

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The Coming War Over Taiwan

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Armand

Great point, Legion. I hope that China Week has ended on Fox, maybe they can stop showing Chinese military propaganda videos. The invasion is too risky at best and Xi must focus on consolidating his power. If he rolls the dice now, with his economic troubles, and the op does not go smoothly, he looks very weak. He wants to wait.

So he does a lot of shouting about Taiwan to look good, flies his planes around in circles. Meanwhile the real estate collapse has cost his economy trillions. It's 2008 for him right now. He has to get through the fake election, then shore up the economy.

I liked seeing all the footage and experts, etc., talk about the PRC/CCP on FOX. "Know your enemy …" and all.

Xi is playing to his public … just our politicos. Xi, Putin, Iran, etc. know they are dealing with weak, feckless, confused, etc. top leadership. And both parties are fighting among themselves as well as each other. If Xi is going to saber rattle, play live fire wargames, etc. This is the time. E.g. the US was going to have missile tests, but stood down first with Putin and now with Xi. Because those at the very top in the USA thought it would upset Putin and now Xi.

They respect only power and strength. Like being afraid to send lethal aid in large numbers to Ukraine while Putin took months to mass on the borders. Of course, the A'stan debacle only demonstrated the poor, weak, etc., leadership running the USA. And they both took or are taking advantage of it. That was the final signal to them that they are playing against the US Soft Ball team, and the 2d & 3d strings. They are not ready for hardball …

But Putin & Xi are …

Legion, you are right as always to take our enemies seriously and I do not underestimate the trouble they can make. Forget POTUS and politics for a minute.

Here is my opinion:

If this is the Putin A team, he is in more trouble than we are. His weak judgement and decision making got him 800 new miles of border to defend and NATO reunited and two new members. I would call this a bush league war plan with a third rate army full of conscripts and war criminals. He has nukes, we have nukes. But in everything else he is weak and ignorant. Tactics, logistics, leadership, training, on and on. This is real weakness in a dicatotorship where the blame goes straight to the top.

Xi has set himself back with his goofy economic policies this year. I am not giving him a pass on the economy there. It's also not easy getting oil delivered from Russia to China and his tankers coming across the Indian Ocean from the Middle East are vulnerable to even a small force. Good luck in a war.

We have no real clue about the Chinese military except the propaganda videos. They have zero experience in large scale amphibious operations, which are risky and dangerous. In fact, nearly the whole force has no real combat experience at all, I believe. Maybe they are great, maybe not. There is a large drop off in the number of military age people in China. Dumb planning yet again. Xi is said to be worried about army loyalty. He has been promoting his political buddies to army commands by the hundreds regardless of merit. These guys will run the Taiwan operation? . Xi is a career party politician with zero military background.

Yea he's dangerous, so is Putin. Are they smarter and tougher than our leaders? So far,I don't think so. We have leadership issues, but it's not like it's all hunky dory in Russia in China thanks to these guys.

The only combat experienced Chine units right now are those that have been engaging the Indians in border skirmishes with mixed results. China has been grabbing small amounts of Indian territory for a while
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Very interesting William, had only a vague awareness. Small scale operations, but tough conditions and some combat. Thanks. I would not want to serve there, as remote as it gets. No wondering the Chinese are slicing off bits here and there and getting away with it. I noted also the Indians buying Russian jets and equipment to beef up their military.

How Fast Could China Take Over Taiwan? If Occupied by China, Could Taiwan Be Liberated?

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Armand