"China is preparing to INVADE Taiwan in Fall" Topic

Satellite imagery, OSINT suggests that China has a new attack sub

link

Armand

EU Says It Wants To Become A 'Bigger Actor' In Asia

link

Armand

Preparing Taiwan for a War With China

link

Satellite imagery, OSINT suggests that China has a new attack sub

link

Armand

What Is China Learning From Russia's War in Ukraine?

link

Armand

China's Top Diplomat Delivers A Warnings To The U.S. That A 'Dangerous Situation' Is Forming Over Taiwan

link

Armand

Chinese Invasion Plan For Taiwan Leaked

link

Armand

"Clean up on aisle 5 … again !"

3rd time for this one, I think. But I am actually not upset with this. I don't think China has any imminent plans, but now they have this to think about.

Russia And China Nuclear Capable Bombers Run A Joint Military Operation Near Japan With President Biden In Tokyo

link

Armand

And the NYT reports that the US has been arming Taiwan with defense weapons, bristling like a porcupine, in their words.

China Pressuring 10 Pacific Nations To Endorse A Sweeping Security Agreement

link

New Satellite Images Hint At China's Taiwan Invasion Plans

link

Armand

Samoa Signs China Bilateral Agreement

YouTube link

YouTube link

link

Armand

China Fails To Reach A Security Agreement With The Pacific Islands

YouTube link

link

Armand

Western Officials Are Saying That China Is Secretly Building A PLA Naval Facility In Cambodia

link

Armand

Analysis: Overview of the Surface Chinese Force in 2025

link

Armand

Still not enough carriers…

Very good intel … 👍👍

Yeah… I don't think 004 and the 076s are going to be operational by 2025. In fact, they'll be lucky if 003 is fully operational by then.

To make this a bit more than a pithy comment, please take a look at the real world timeline for the Shandong: in the water in 2017, commissioned in late 2019, then achieved "initial operational capability" in late 2020. This was a smaller and much simpler carrier than 003. The 003 is still not in the water as of 2022. So to expect it to be a part of the active fleet by 2025 is rather optimistic…
The 004 and 076s are still vapourware.

These guys are a long ways from challenging US carrier dominance, as far as I can tell. It could take a couple of decades for them to learn the ropes. Nobody has done this longer or better than the US, Ships, aircraft, pilots, tech, operations, doctrine. Experience and expertise.

And a lot more big ships.

Yes, but they are working at it. While the USN downsizes …

We are ditching the 9 LCSs, which were a disaster, and some other auxiliaries soon, but the Fords and the new Columbias are on track as we phase out the upgraded Nimitz carriers and the Ohio BM subs. . Nothing China or Russia does is likely to match these.
The qualitative advances seem like a net gain. We are not cutting funding. The battle groups must be kept, I think by law, but the navy is talking about unmanned ships lately. Let's hope they don't jump the gun on this, like EVs in the army.

Well I hope they don't cut the USN too thin … But takes a lot of $ to Go Green and support all those illegal aliens, I guess. China & Russia aren't going Green are they ?

China-Solomon Islands Pact: Reading Between the Lines

link

Armand

China & Russia aren't going Green are they

Both have horrific levels of corruption, so they are "going green" in that sense. The PLAN has the dubious distinction of killing more Chinese law enforcement than foreign soldiers and sailors, in support of smuggling operations. Back in the '90s, they were openly escorting smugglers and drug runners. Although, under the glorious leader Xi, his wisdom and power have smashed corruption and improved readiness… Where have we heard that before?
But seriously though, it's good to never underestimate your enemies, and to always be aware of your own shortcomings, but it's not a good idea to overdo it to the point of ignoring data. Overestimating your enemies can be very counter-productive, if you allow perceived non-existent strength of the enemy to restrict your own actions.

Agree, I never take either of them for granted.

Yes, my comment for them Going Green was pure hyperbole, of course. The USA's leadership is Going Green like their lives depended upon it. 'nuff said …

China ‘will fight to the very end' over Taiwan: Chinese defense minister

link

Armand

The PRC/CCP recently basically warned the US not to get involved with Taiwan. If the reports are correct.

They watched our debacle of the A'stan retreat. Plus the US's slow response to Putin's War in the Ukraine. As the US leadership was afraid of Putin's reaction to US weapons, etc. support to the Ukraine.

As well as they know the US economy is in trouble, very much trouble. I don't think some of the US leadership really gets that ? With the war of fossil fuel the past 2 years, pushing for a expensive GO Green agenda. An agenda the US is not ready to support as for one thing the Tech is not there.

What does this have to do with the PRC/CCP ? Or Russian … or Iran ?

What one pundit said a decade or so back – "It's the economy stupid !" …

If you don't have an economy that actually "works" … you have 0 And again Xi and even Putin know this.

A sadly, no very sadly … the US is suffering from self-inflicted wounds. Our leadership has done more damage the US than Xi or Putin could do, short of using nukes …

Yes, self-inflicted. IMO, based on what I remember, the previous administration took actions that made this a strategic nightmare and led to massive price hikes and profits. They took millions of barrels of oil a day out of the supply by collapsing the Iran deal, and they forced price increases to help the Saudis, Russian, US oil producers after the bottom fell out of oil prices a couple of years ago. Partly this was due to Saudi/Russian competition for the China market, but also the pandemic. Remember oil futures at 0$ a barrel?
Trump then told the Saudis to cut production, to push up prices, or he would begin withdrawing military support. There was even a bill in the Senate. The Saudis caved and cut way back on production.
The Saudi crown Prince wants help in Yemen and immunity from Kashogi lawsuits, hates his image problem ( seen the new golf league?) Biden won't play ball. Putin needs his oil money for the war. So production stays low, prices stay high, Biden gets trashed 24/7 and Putin and the Saudis hope they get a new US Congress and president to work with. That what I think they are thinking.

This is how I remember things, but I know there is a different narrative. And Biden should not get a pass on inflation nor should the price gouging oil companies. Their record profits speak for themselves. But in my opinion, this is how the whole dirty business got rolling.

Is Taiwan Ready For War Against China?

link

Armand

I quite disagree with the notion that Taiwan will quickly crumple in the case of an invasion. An amphibious operation is a very difficult task at the best of times, and Taiwan has been stockpiling, and continues to stockpile, an arsenal of missiles to make any such operation very messy. China may be able to bombard Taiwan with ballistic missiles, but that will bring a lot of international pressure, especially considering the modern levels of communications equipment in Taiwan. Any such anti-civilian atrocities will be quickly broadcast all over the world, with similar response as against Russian actions in Ukraine. Even that bombardment will not go unanswered. Taiwan has long range cruise missiles similar in accuracy to Tomahawks now, and military facilities on the Mainland can be attacked while avoiding civilian casualties. This will be in sharp contrast with indiscriminate ballistic missile bombardment from China.

As I have said before, the Chinese have no track record militarily. An invasion would be incredibly complex compared to Ukraine. The US has ramped up sending weapons to the island.

And Biden has let the Chinese know that the possibility of US military intervention is on the table in public statements. Despite the walkbacks, the Chinese got the word and may not be sure.

And….it would be bad for global business to invade.

Will A Taiwan Invasion Be Too Costly For China To Undertake?

link

China Launches Its First Domestically Designed And Built Aircraft Carrier

YouTube link

link

Armand

It seems like the answer is yes. They will figure out some other way.

But in my opinion,

Everyone is entitled to their opinion … no harm … no foul …

I quite disagree with the notion that Taiwan will quickly crumple in the case of an invasion. An amphibious operation is a very difficult task at the best of times, and Taiwan has been stockpiling, and continues to stockpile, an arsenal of missiles to make any such operation very messy.

Yes the PRC has never done an amphib op AFAIK. IIRC beaches capable for making an amphib invasion are not that many on Taiwan. Those two factors there should make the PRC/CCP circumspect … Of course I didn't think Putin would invade the Ukraine either… so …

Agree Legion, we are all making our best assumptions based on head and heart. No harm meant.

Taiwan could make a mess of a Chinese invasion from the start and during the crossing, causing casualties and disrupting operations and logistics. And then there is the terrain after they land on the few small beaches available.
I find it hard to believe anybody would even try a D Day type operation today. But Putin has made many of us gunshy.

It is going to be a long time before Fujian approaches the operational capabilities of the US, I would think a decade or more, not to mention our numerical superiority and production capacity. And then there are the aircraft and pilots.

But Putin has made many of us gunshy.

We the US Military is a bit casualty-adverse. Which much better than we see what is happening with the Russians in the Ukraine. But we have been engaged in Iraq, Syria and A'stan for too many years. Too much blood & treasure expended …

It is going to be a long time before Fujian approaches the operational capabilities of the US,

The PRC/CCP has to remember … the USA really is the biggest best sea power in the world. We have 10-11 Carriers …

The US has almost 100 Years of accumulated experience in carrier operations. I will take the chinese quite some time to match that.

Carriers are not going to add much to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, since the area is already easily within range of far more numerous and capable land-based aircraft. The new Chinese carriers are probably for show-the-flag missions elsewhere, in the South China Sea or even up to Africa.

But Putin has made many of us gunshy.

Exactly. If a dictator believes his own propaganda, it's going to be attractive to launch a "short victorious war", even if objectively he is undertaking a suicide mission.

Errata : My comment was incorrect according to the Pentagon Report I just heard. The PRC has the biggest navy in the world. But they only have 3 Carriers vs the USN's 10. Regardless, the USN is the most experienced, probably most high tech overall force on the seas.

Taiwan: Has the risk of war increased following new China warnings?

link

Armand

This Is The Warship The US Navy Should Be Worry About

link

Armand

They are too busy training sailors with using proper woke, etc., pronouns to be worried about an enemies' Navy capabilities …
link

They have their priorities, with the Climate being #1. I heard the CinC say it in a speech. But to do it effectively you have to know the correct pronouns. I guess ?

Noooooo!!! Not the dreaded Pronoun Training! Imagine using this whatever it is while commanding a CVBG. I predict nobody will use it and it will fade away.

The Chinese destroyers are really cruiser size. They look good on paper, but we do not have the whole picture. How good are the leaders, crews? Not much naval tradition. I am sure crews spend many hours on political training to be good communists. Is there a Chinese naval academy?

They had…

link

link

Armand

I predict nobody will use it and it will fade away.

It will fade out in 2024. This type of training comes from the very top.

I am sure crews spend many hours on political training to be good communists.

They spend very little time on that, compared to the US woke, CRT/1619, genderism, climate, etc. training. John Paul Jones, Nimitz, Halsey, etc. are rolling over in their graves.

The Chinese destroyers are really cruiser size. They look good on paper, but we do not have the whole picture.

The 055s are more or less modern versions of Ticonderogas. They still don't have quad-packed AA missiles in their VLS, but other than that, seem to have the full range of munitions. Hardware-wise, the question, as always, is how good Chinese radars and electronics really are.

This is an interesting tool tracking Chinese military education:

unitracker.aspi.org.au

Click on the PLAN node to see the linked institutions. There are 9 institutions according to this. Interesting, the last time I checked Chinese MOD official sources said there were 8.

A persistent issue with the PLAN (and the PLA in general) is corruption. Back in the '90s, the PLAN was infamous for running escorts for smugglers and often opening fire on Chinese law enforcement. Various anti-corruption measures have been tried multiple times, and recently multiple heads of the CSSC* were arrested for corruption. It remains to be seen if these are as "effective" as Putin's anti-corruption efforts.

* This is the huge Chinese ship-building company that, among other things, owns the shipyard that just completed the Fujian. It came to some infamy back when President Trump banned American companies from investing in it, among a list of others.

They spend very little time on that, compared to the US woke, CRT/1619, genderism, climate, etc. training

A serious question – do you know how much time is actually spent on the above? PLAN officers are estimated to spend some 30 to 40% of their time on political training, discussions with their men about Marxist-Leninist doctrine, etc.

I did not know they spent that much time on basically "indoctrination", propaganda, etc. Based on my training & experience as both a Rifle/81mm Plt then Mech Co. Cdr. That 30%-40% seems like a lot of time they could use for really training for combat. Their troops/sailors are very much indoctrinated, but can they fight ?

I would not underestimate them regardless. If for no other reason they have numbers.

Of course, I don't know how much time the US Military spends on woke, CRT/1619, genderism, climate, etc. training. But again, I'm basically using my past experience in the US Army Infantry. I had no idea any military would spend that much time on indoctrination, etc. as the PRC/CCP does. Again of course the PRC/CCP is a different culture than the US or even the West.

So again, they can spend a lot of training on soft topics. I hope the US Military will train to fight wars …