"Wargaming and the Ukraine war" Topic

Actually he wrote "Appear weak where you are strong, and strong where you are weak." A subtle but important difference.

If you care to explain how Putin is following this dictate, as you seem to think, please do so. Right now I see an army that is formidable in the imagination, but proving to be weak in the application. Which is hardly surprising, considered how riddled with corruption Russia itself is.
Are you suggesting that the Russian leadership ordered that tank column into an obvious ambush situation so as to "appear weak" for some other purpose? Must be some awesome purpose to sacrifice millions of dollars worth of equipment and the lives of hundreds of trained Russian soldiers in order to make it happen—

"All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near."
― Sun tzu, The Art of War

Absolutely.

In any case, what is your point? Are you suggesting the Russians are intentionally demonstrating gross incompetence because they actually are stronger than they appear? If so, to what end?

Not buying it.

Besides, this war isn't about corruption or "neo-Nazis." If these were actually problems, Putin could have engaged with Western leaders to use political and economic pressures on the government of Ukraine to reform— and the West would likely have agreed. And even if not, one can deal with corrupt politicians quite effectively— offer them a bribe and a free jet to a life of luxury in Cuba.

No, this is nothing short of an old-fashioned land grab and an attempt to be the "Big Bad Man of Russia." One can see it in the tactics. If Ukraine had a thoroughly corrupt government and no effective democracy, then Russia could indeed have rolled across the border without firing any shots at all, and the opposition would have collapsed. Corrupt leaders and soldiers don't stand and fight— they loot the government accounts and run. And you don't have to blow up apartments or hospitals if you are truly liberating a place. The populace will welcome you in and celebrate your victories. That's exactly what happened in Paris in WWII when the Allies drove out the Germans. But that's not what's happening here.
Instead the Russian forces are deliberately targeting civilian centers and sites necessary for ordinary people to survive, in ways that even threaten their lives— like the nuclear power plant, which endangers not only Ukraine but potentially much of Russia and Europe, too. And the people of Ukraine hate them for it.
These tactics are not only horrific actions, they're lousy strategy, if your goal is to "liberate" people. Terrorizing people into submission or simply "erasing" them are the only possible strategic purpose of tactics like these. So therefore, liberation is NOT the goal nor the guiding strategy in this war.

Furthermore, Putin has shut down the media in his own country from reporting on the war. This is not the behavior of a free state, nor a leader of a free people concerned about "democracy" in a neighboring regime. It is the act of a tyrant.

It is quite clear then, that this is not a war of liberation, or a "protective preemptive strike" intended to shield Russia from some nefarious threat from Ukraine (or anywhere else). It has nothing to do with preserving democracy in Ukraine. It is simply a cold-blooded, criminal and evil war of conquest by a sadistic tyrant who thinks that "being remembered by history" has any meaning for the future.
We remember a lot of people in history. But here's the thing— they're all dead. And being remembered by history does not benefit their corpses one bit, nor does it excuse their souls from whatever comes next. And that is absolutely true no matter what one's beliefs are.

SUN TZU ===== Wisdom from the East…

"Engage people with what they expect; it is what they are able to discern and confirms their projections. It settles them into predictable patterns of response, occupying their minds while you wait for the extraordinary moment — that which they cannot anticipate."
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Again, you've established that you can cut and paste from Sun Tzu. Well done.
Now, give us your analysis of the current strategic and tactical situation based on what you've quoted.

And I also say, feel free to argue against anything Sun Tzu stated in his work. It ain't Holy Writ.

So far the only thing Putin has displayed is to follow Napoleon's alleged recitation of the French proverb that "God favors the side with the biggest battalions." (To which Voltaire had replied in his own day, "God favors the side which can shoot the best.")
(Not precise wording perhaps, but then, I don't speak French, either.)

When wargaming this conflict, the rules would need to require the Russian forces to be stupid:
[…]
I don't think I'd want to play that game.

Russians are usually rated as stupid in any era of wargaming. This war apparently won't be a new exception.

I suspect rules like Force On Force and Fistful of TOWS will probably work just fine out of the box, but adapting a strategic boardgame is a bit more of a challenge. There are already a few boardgames that cover the theater, but none that are balanced for the specific traits of the current war.

- Ix

However well intentioned I do think the contributions above are, this thread has gone off topic, like right off topic.

My aim in writing was to encourage hobbyists to show their support for a humanitarian crisis.

So, if everyone has put their theories forward, can we as wargamers – and wargames event organisers – do SOMETHING to help the victims of this war?

Barry

My suggestion on that point would be to find a viable charity who is actively working to aid war victims. I would suggest Samaritan's Purse. samaritanspurse.org
This is not an organization built to get rich off your donations, nor a quickie, short term charity with no track record or logistical capability.
And yes, even if you are neither Christian nor religious, I would still recommend this charity as being one of the most effective and efficient paths for your dollar, pound, franc, etc.. Unlike many others, they actually will directly help people with your dollar, not put it into executive salaries or virtue-signaling ad campaigns. And they're already in the region as I type, helping refugees and other victims of this war. They also don't play favorites and don't bribe corrupt officials, if you're worried about either.

Charity doesn't need a wargaming imprimatur. It just needs generosity.

Excellent post by Parzival -

@all
My sincere thanks to Parzival and John Simmons for a welcome flash of sanity on this matter.

Many years ago I was a journalist working for a North East London local newspaper. In my downtime I would make up whole page features of interest to me on general subjects. If a whole page advertisement suddenly cancelled (it happened) one of these stored features could quickly replace it without causing a panic in the newsroom.

The current Imperial War Museum in Lambeth, London, is housed in a former psychiatric hospital, the original 'Bedlam'. I pointed out the irony of that in the feature text.

My headline was 'War, the ultimate madness'.

Barry

For giving aid, I suggest Mennonite Central Committee [MCC] a trustworthy organization that has been working in Ukraine for over 100 years and continues to do so. The home page at mcc.org shows "Ukraine Emergency Response" and a "Give Today" link to click on. They do relief, development and peacebuilding.

Though their motto concludes with the words "in the name of Christ" they do no proselytizing, nor do they have religious requirements for those they assist. In keeping with the injunction to "love your enemies", they do not discriminate based on the nationality or ethnicity of those who are suffering.

MCC already has local partner agencies on the ground in Ukraine with whom they have cooperated for decades. In fact, MCC originated in 1920 in response to the suffering imposed by the Bolsheviks on the people of Ukraine.

In order to maximize the effectiveness of their assistance, various Mennonite and Anabaptist groups in Canada and the USA formed the coordinating "Central Committee" in 1920. Because of the name, some people thought it was a Communist organization.

If you want to avoid religiously-affiliated organizations, Medicins Sans Frontieres, UNICEF, and the Red Cross are all accepting donations for their efforts in Ukraine as well.

My $.02 USD cents,

I think that there are many here that are missing the point on what the original posting was saying. That is AT THE NEXT WARGAME CONVENTION, show support of the Ukraine by voluntarily donating (putting money in a box). Hopefully yours and my donations will make it to some official charity donation center that will make a difference to the suffering civilian and miliary casualties that the Ukraine is suffering.
Donations are not mandatory. But if you want to donate money, it is an easy way to do so!
Tom Semian
Irvine, PA. 16329