"Ukraine War" Topic

Wow, 11,200 A/T missiles on the way to Ukraine, from numerous countries, including the USA, Sweden, Finland, Norway, etc..

That is a lot of anti-armor gear.

Hope they receive it all and put it to good use.

IMO unlikely … it would certainly add another negative aspect to the war. Making a bigger war when right now everybody is looking for just the opposite. IIRC, some nations will not let Russian ships dock in their ports and not let Russian aircraft land either. That may not bring in others outside of Ukraine into this conflict.

I saw a photo of a disabled tank in a ditch, abandoned, not much obvious damage. I wondered what kind of anti tank weapons work on todays armor?

Javelin is a top attack missile that will destroy most tanks so the damage could be on the top. It is also plausible it got mired in the ditch trying to negotiate around mines or other obstacles. The Russians are pretty thin when it comes to recovery vehicles so that could be the issue as well.

Or maybe a Ukrainian grandmother scolded the Russian soldiers and they slunk off in shame…

But feasible?

Did the Russians up the anti?

Subject: Ukraine envoy to U.S. says Russia used a vacuum bomb in its invasion | Reuters


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Vacuum bomb = TOS-1 = thermobaric rockets

The timbre of the expert discussion on the radio today has been has been grimly assessing that the Russian military is basically reverting to its usual tactic of committing war crimes till the civilian population can take no more…

Would it be possible for Ukrainians or their supporters outside of the Ukraine to sabotage vessels in ports delivering Russian crude, or blow pipelines carrying Russian crude or gas? Wondering if that is something we might be seeing soon. Thoughts?

Such vessels or pipes are not valid military targets, and attacking them should be considered as clearly criminal activity. Furthermore, it would not have any direct effect on the invasion conducted in Ukraine, but could cause significant damage to local environment and/or civilian population.

As for economic effects, there are already heavy economic sanctions in place and starting to gradually take their toll. And there may be willingness to up them even more in near future. So far there have been few sanctions aimed at the energy sector, but if things don't improve that may start getting gradually affected – apparently Canada is already going to ban the import of Russian crude oil if I understood correctly.

Wow, 11,200 A/T missiles on the way to Ukraine, from numerous countries, including the USA, Sweden, Finland, Norway, etc..

Finland has not donated any AT missiles, but is about to send 1500 anti-tank rocket launchers (disposable). If I am not mistaken, the Swedish anti-tank weapons are also either recoilless rifles or rocket launchers (unguided).

That said, seeing Germany, Sweden and Finland sending weapons to Ukraine is a very drastic change in the historical policies of these countries, which since WWII have avoided sending weapons to countries involved in an active war.

Thinking of Ukrainians trying to hit back at Russian soft targets. Ways they just might do that. Infiltrating Russia and hitting water, power, assassinations? Small amount of well trained saboteurs, maximum damage. Basically the same thing Russia is currently trying to do with their infiltrators.

Ukrainians playing dirty and attacking civilian targets in Russia would be unlikely to hinder the Russian military invasion in any noticeable way. It would however unnecessarily affect civilian populations. It would also negatively affect the international goodwill that Ukraine has recently received.

More worthwhile and relatively soft targets would be the Russian army supply trucks that are bringing ammo and fuel towards the front line. Blowing up enough of these along the roads in Ukraine would seriously affect the offensive capability of mechanised units – big guns and heavy vehicles need a lot of ammo and fuel to be effective.

More worthwhile and relatively soft targets would be the Russian army supply trucks that are bringing ammo and fuel towards the front line.

Let the convoy move forward, then cut the road behind them.

But aren't the Russians affecting civilian populations? Actually I think hitting the Russian oil/gas processes would be the most effective.

But aren't the Russians affecting civilian populations?

Yes, and it is not doing them any good at the moment. Instead it results in:

1.) Said civilian population more strongly resenting their "liberators"
2.) Military getting more resolved to protect the civilians
3.) International community reacting strongly
4.) Russian civilians becoming less likely to support the war

Actually I think hitting the Russian oil/gas processes would be the most effective.

It would not have any short term effect. Meanwhile, I recall that a couple of days ago Russian military itself stuck at an oil terminal and gas pipe in Ukraine.

The way out of the conflict for the Ukrainians involves getting the Russian leadership into a situation where they are willing to negotiate with reasonable terms. The longer the Ukrainians can stand out, the more invading forces they can tie up and attrite, and the more aware the Russian population becomes, the more likely the Russian leadership is to give in their demands for peace.

It is currently the 6th day of the invasion, and the invading forces seem to be making relatively slow progress at the moment. According to intelligence estimate, 75 % of the forces available theatre have entered Ukraine, still leaving some reserves.

In the meanwhile, Ukrainians are preparing new defences and enlisting en masse in local defence units. Military aid has started to flow in from abroad, while international financial sanctions are starting to be felt in the Russian economy.

This guy from Texas is going to have some questions to answer at the border when he tries to get back to the US (if he can find a flight).
youtu.be/PejddkCDqjM

Wasn't that guy on the streets of Portland a year or so ago? 🤣
Sounds like a candidate for a good old fashioned neck tie party, or a human mine sweeper.

Let the convoy move forward, then cut the road behind them.

They halted now not sure why. Maint., resupply, etc. halt ? A 40 mile convoy is pretty long.

Can the Ukrainians get there with enough force in time ?

Do they have the forces ?

That guy's a twonk

Not verified, but the implication is they are Russian. To my uneducated eye they look a bit casual. Especially since there appears be an ongoing battle there. link
I grew up watching news footage of Northern Ireland in the 80's and even there British troops may have been in berets, but they tended to look a bit more alert.
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I asked this before. To my knowledge there are pipelines running from Russia through Ukraine. Also one on the boarder of Belarus and Ukraine. Why don't the Ukrainians hit those. Cut Russian exports. The Belarus one would be a target since they have taken part in the war. Seems like miles of these pipes would be easy targets. Might even force the Russians to draw off troops to guard miles of pipelines. What about sabotage of ships in harbors of Crimea? Something to cause issues in the Russian back areas.

I do not believe so … the maps I saw showed the pipeline going thru the sea to Western Europe.

Actually the one I looked at showed multiple pipelines and proposed pipelines going in multiple directions. Gas, oil. Maybe they were wrong. Maybe one called something like the "friendship" line. It was a Google search, so not sure how much to trust Google.

Here Legion is one. Natural Gas

Subject: Natural gas transmission system of Ukraine – Wikipedia


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I read somewhere that the Russian pipelines that flow through Ukraine have to pay a fee per unit of gas. This income is probably a very good revenue source for Ukraine in normal times. Maybe this is one reason not to destroy the pipeline?

Interesting interview with Oleksandra Ustinova, a member of the Ukrainian Parliament, on President Biden's State of the Union address. In a word, disappointed. IN more words, she points out the sanctions are not serious -- only 7 of 350 Russian banks are affected and the US is still buying Russian oil.

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When the US was a net energy exporter as recently as 2020, we had Putin over a figurative "barrel" because Russia's breakeven price for oil production is $69 USD/bbl (2021 figure). Below that, Putin struggles. However, because of actions taken by the current US president to decrease US energy production, the US is once again a net energy importer and the price of oil now approaching $100 USD/bbl. That means Russia is flush enough to invade Ukraine. All because of Biden—the same Biden who approached OPEC last November and requested they pump more oil to help us out…to fix a problem he had caused. Just insane.

Subject: Russia-Ukraine War Latest News Live Updates: Putin Warns West Against Interference; Russian Military Presses On Odesa, Mariupol; Brent Surges


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I apologize for that link, as it changes constantly. It was originally about Russian leadership threatening execution of groups of civilians if opposed.

martyn k wrote
This income is probably a very good revenue source for Ukraine in normal times. the problem it is about to become a russian pipeline

Subject: Europe's largest nuclear power plant on fire after shelling – The Boston Globe


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Thanks 35thOVI Did not know about all those pipelines. Just the Russians are shelling the nuke power plant. That can't be good !!!

Reports say it is on fire.

Couple things from scanning the UK press this morning Guardian published information from a UK intelligence briefing saying that Russian morale is low, I assume gleaning from signals intercepts, that they've taken at least 10K causalities and lost as many as 80 aircraft of various types. Apparently bailed out pilots are actively providing the Ukrainian's with information on war crimes. The Russian army is also resorting to disguising fuel bowsers as normal truck because of losses.

The other is slightly more out there, according the to UKs Sun newspaper (a tabloid), Putin has cancer! And this whole thing is his 'legacy'. Apparently this information came from US and UK intelligence sources.

I have to think the Ukrainians are limited in their ability to counterattack. The Russians have established corridors out of Kherson and towards Kyiv that look, at least on a map, ripe to harass or cut off.

Which way do the prevailing winds in that part of the world blow?
Obviously, a disaster at a nuclear power facility would be very bad for the Ukraine, but which way is the radiation likely to drift?

Grelber

Which way do the prevailing winds in that part of the world blow?

With a bit of digging, I found this website providing data about weather in Kiev. Scroll down long enough and you will find a chart showing the wind direction distribution.

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Seems like in March no particular direction is dominant, so it would be difficult to predict where the fall-out would end.

Southern or western winds would end up carrying the fall-out from northern Ukraine to Byelorussia or Russia. And south-western winds might take it straight towards Moscow…

No matter what … there will be fallout …

In a word, disappointed. IN more words, she points out the sanctions are not serious -- only 7 of 350 Russian banks are affected and the US is still buying Russian oil.

You political bias prevent you from seeing that the sanction are working in absolute term to limit the capacity of Russia to sustain the war (it's unlikely that Putin will be affected though). The call for help to China is the last proof that Russia is facing more and more problem with their expected easy war.