"Ukraine War" Topic

It appears the war has started. I will be watching this one closely to see what strategy, tactics and new technology comes into play. I wonder if anything will be rendered obsolete.

Some long-term consequences I see as a possibility…

1. Putin will become a pariah on the world stage.

2. Russia will become more isolated and shunned by the rest of the world.

3. European countries that depend on Russian oil might seek alternatives to Russian oil / gas.

4. Expansion of NATO.

5. Russia has two assets oil/ gas and its military. If Europe stops purchasing oil and gas that leaves Russia with one strong asset…

6. NATO countries could stop living in denial and actually modernize their militaries.

7. No one will trust the USA to keep its promises ever again.

On point 5. Russia and China just signed a pact. China needs a lot of oil and gas.

I find it interesting how similar Putin seems to me to resemble Hitler!

(1) He lies and radicalises his people.
(2) He tries to make it appear HE is the one being attacked (as in Poland 1939)
(3) He moves unopposed into the Crimea (Hitler did Austria)
(4) He occupies a part of another country with a friendly population in Donetzk/Luhansk (Hitler in the Sudetenland)

So, using this model, what next?

Hitler advanced into and conquered the rest of Czechoslovakia.
Putin could extend into and occupy Ukraine

Then there is Poland….!

I hope I am wrong!!!

I heard Chuck Norris is on the way over. Everything will be sorted by friday morning ;)

On a more serious note. I thing there will either be at least one nuclear explosion within six months or Putin will die, most likely in a coup.

Putin has already threatened with nukes if anyone tries to intervene and Russians do not make idle threats. Modern war eats men and materiel at an astonishing rate so it will most likely be a short but very brutal war. If Russian do not "win" fast that is when, I think, Putin will be deposited by some other up and coming guy.

What if some extremist group goes unconventional? Dirty bomb? (Ukraine certainly has radioactive material!) Are there any Cold War stockpiles of nerve gas or bio agents left in Ukraine? This could get out of control fast.

If Russia gets bogged down, could China decide to 'liberate' some northern territories? Poland, Romania, even Japan have territorial claims against Russia.

Restive Muslims might also rise up.

Former UK general on the radio mentioned that war tends to develop a life of its own – probably true. Putin will not be able to control what happens next 100%.

I can hear distant jets this morning not unusual but given the timing.

If the Russian military is checked in Ukraine I winder whether the rumours of unhappiness in his own security structures will boil over?

Expanding NATO would be a mistake. Alliances give you no options. Those added would add nothing to NATOs power in comparison to what an attack on them would cost NATO.

Yes, we are now with Putin where the west was with Herr Hitler in 1935 or so, trying to appease him.

He is far from our most dangerous enemy, but the others see our weakness and will act.

Will Poland sit idle in this? Will a no fly zone be declared?

A strong leader should work to have the UN expelled from the UN until it removes its troops from all of Ukraine (including Crimea- hey Russia, you rose the stakes, take the fall). If China doesn't go along, tell them they're next. Reports I am seeing, though, has China declaring official surprise at Russian actions, so maybe that can be used as a wedge.

Then a UN no fly zone should be declared and tell Russia we won't interfere on the ground, but good luck in the invasion with no helicopters or aircraft. The one thing Europe does have is strong air forces, especially combined. There are decades of precedent for this type of action.

Do we have strong leaders, though? I guess we will find out.

Maybe now, our leaders will stop throwing money away on worthless new vote buying social programs, and vote buying green programs and do what they should do, put that money into new development, maintenance and expansion of our military. Get rid of PC officers and get real military people back in. Put our manufacturing back in our country, where it can be protected and not nationalized by foreign countries. Maybe pigs will fly. 😡

Putin has done everything he has said he would do so far, Georgia, Crimea, now Ukraine. Maybe we should take his words seriously. He has also has talked about Poland and Lithuania and their ties to the Ukraine. Is that his next move?

Having Poland and Lithuania in NATO gives us no options. I hate that. One should never box yourself in, with no real options. Does NATO start moving real divisions into both, not just token forces. Are we ready for WW3? With them in NATO, have we not emulated the same situations that started the previous world wars?

Where is James Bond when you need him and a quick end to a mad man? 😢

If the Poles and Baltic countries see this as a precursor to a continued threat from Russia one option would be for Poland and Lithuania to invade Belarus, take ground and threaten to envelop the Russian forces from the north. Make it clear they have no territorial ambitions and they will withdraw when the Russians withdraw from Ukraine.

This would be a bold move but unfortunately their NATO treaty commitments and lack of support from Germany and the other western counties that have paid lip service to NATO for years probably render this option unavailable. Raises serious questions about how Article 5 would be enacted.

At this point while those countries may be on alert they haven't called up enough troops to do anything soon and the Russians invasion may be over in a several days. Too bad the Poles don't have the 250 Abram tanks they just bought.

Any expansion of this, will send the dominoes falling. I want to be wrong, but don't feel I am. Yes I think Putin will stop, for now, WHEN he changes the current government in the Ukraine. But it will be just for now. One has to question the mental health of the man. Unfortunately, that will not happen in Russia.

The Ukraine conflict has barely begun. The Russians may be able to negate the Ukrainian Army in hours and install a puppet government, but they will play hell trying to exert any real control beyond the localized control that comes from the muzzle of a Russian rifle.

There will be an insurgency. As with their attempt to subjugate Afghanistan, the Russian endpoint will be determined when Putin's support suffocates under a mountain of body bags.

During WWII, there was an insurgency in Ukraine, aimed primarily at Soviet Partisans, ethnic Poles and, to a lesser extent, Germans. It continued after the Soviets drove out the Axis, continuing well into the late 1940s. It didn't end completely into the early 1950s.

Don't be super surprised if Moldova grants Transnistria independence, then preemptively destroys its' own bridges across the Dniester River.

This seems a strange move for Putin. It's as if he's running a Hail Mary to try to cope with some other crisis, like Argentina vs. The Falklands.

If history is a guide, Putin will expand again just after the next Winter olympics. ;P

To be clear, I believe pushing Nato so close to Russia was a dumb move and pushed Putin to react. The fact that when we opened negotiations we didn't offer to commit that Ukraine would not join Nato was a further mistake. If we weren't going to fight for it, why refuse to take that off the table? I think our leaders thought that by not taking that off the table, it would give Putin pause. Instead it had the opposite reaction, he took it as a sign of further Nato expansion.

However justified Putin feels he is, though, he crossed the line. You can argue who caused what until you are blue in the face, but once the line is crossed we have to respond. Putin gave us chances to pull back and we didn't take them. Now he's invaded. The only thing that will give him pause now is a sharp punch to the face.

And believe me, I know that Russia is a heavily armed nuclear power and we have to tread carefully. That's why, in this case, we really do need an international coalition. It's one thing for Putin to defy the US for local consumption, it's another to be opposed by the entire rest of the world.

I just pray that the rest of the world will remain united against Putin and his dreams of empire.

Remember this past posting: Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro has come out with his strategic guidance to the Navy.

Apparently there are 4 key challenges facing the US Navy:
1. China
2. Culture
3. Climate Change
4. COVID

Has I pointed out in the comments there was no Russia, NK or Iran. Once again the US military was wrongly focused. The SecNav needs to be fired immediately.
There is no doubt in my mind why Russia is attacking Ukraine.

Oscs74. I think the numbers are backward and somewhat off. In their minds it is:

1. culture/those who oppose them internally.
2. Political Correctness in the Military
3. climate
4. COVID (as pertains to mandatory vaccinations and masks)

China is a distant 5th and may be even tied to Russia.

And it is not just the Navy.

In other words. What our military should be concerned with, they are not concerned with. 😡

There's a lot that doesn't stack up right about this and it worries me –

Why now? He could have performed annual "exercises" on the border with Ukraine for another 2-3 years, causing the same headaches and wear them down politically and economically, let Nordstream 2 become an essential part of Europe's energy supplies.. what's the rush? He doesn't have to think about elections, he could play a much longer game.

What's he going to do with it when he's got it? Occupy it? Regime change? That worked out just great for Iraq… Either he's as dumb as our leaders and just thinks Ukraine will be reabsorbed into the Holy Russian Empire happily or he's got some godawful big stick planned to cow them with. Like a nuke.

This could get terrifying, very quickly, and I hope I really am being unduly alarmist.

Smarter people than I, come tell me why I'm wrong.

Putin's GEN's took a page from von Clausewitz, i.e. doing the unexpected, and/or Sun Tzu, "war is a matter of deception" (paraphrasing from both). Instead of the standard Russian tactic of massive prep of the battlefield with airstrikes, missiles and FA.

Putin's/Russia's attack was much more surgical. Targeting mostly ADA, then C3, troop locations, etc., in and near many cities/towns. ADA is always taken out first to allow air assets to go anywhere they want. The US ARMY calls in SEADS – Suppression of Enemy Air Defense Systems. As the US did in Desert Storm, etc. It appears with the world's media is watching so he wants to limit CD as much as possible.

Plus, I think he plans on "annexing" Ukraine, as he did with Moldova, Georgia, and the Crimea previously. Seems his "dream" of recreating the former USSR is in effect. Or more like the old Russian Empire.

Reports are the Russian's successfully executed an air assault operation on an airfield near Kyiv. With Ukraine saying they shot down 3-4 helicopters(?).

The Russian attack is on 4 fronts. Which is a logistical challenge. But it appears at this time that is not a problem yet. Probably won't be unless the attack goes on for much longer time than just a day or so. The saying is still applicable – "Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics" …

There may be a guerilla/partisan aspect of war going on as civilians are being issued weapons. Especially in a MOUT situation as we say in e.g., Hungary in '56, etc. These civilians may also be used as militia. Working with/supporting the regular Military.

Putin said the day before if anyone outside of the Ukraine tries to interfere. They will be attacked as no one has seen before. Is he talking more than cyber, but Nukes ? He is called crazy by some. "Crazy like a fox" as the saying goes, IMO. But I'm still betting on No Nukes/WMDs … Of course, as noted already that could be just saber rattling for local consumption.

I also saw a report 4000 UK, Canadian & Germany troops are being sent to the Baltic states. Putin does not like being surrounded by former WP allies now in NATO. Looks like that has happened, save for Ukraine, with Putin does not want them to join NATO and at this point nor does NATO.

Based on Putin seeing US leadership being seen as weak, naive, woke, wanting to Go Green from Day 1 as a big priority, the A'stan debacle, having to buy oil from Russia too, etc., after shutting down the Canadian Pipeline, etc., making the US no longer energy independent, etc., etc. Putin sees this as his time to move. From a number of standpoints, he is correct.

As already pointed out here. The US when it comes to military priorities are very much misplaced by the new leadership at the very top. Even cutting back on the defense budget. Woke, inclusion, diversity, CRT, etc., are not warfighter skills required to be an effective combat force. Many at the top missed this as they did by putting Global Warming as top military priority. Too many of our elected & appointed governmental officials have no place in their current positions of power.

Stern/strict/crippling sanctions from NATO and many of the rest of the world will do some damage to Putin, Russia, etc. Regardless he will have "annexed" the Ukraine. Blood is being spilled, as it appears Ukraine will fight. With a possible guerilla war coming about. With more body bags being sent back home to Russia.

At this time the world markets are very much in the Red. Either way Putin wins …

There is some push back from some Russia media and population. They think this attack is unnecessary, wrong, etc. But as we know protesting in Putin's Russia won't get you very far. Other than prison …

Subject: BREAKING: Xi Is On the Move -- Taiwan Defense Ministry Says 9 Chinese Aircraft Have Entered its Air Defense Zone on Thursday Morning


link

We were isolationists in 1935, Hitler did not have such major military power and status, no mutually assured destruction capability.

Xi is watching Putin's War with much interest. Again, he sees the many failures of the US leadership. As did Putin. So does Iran, AQ, ISIS, etc., also. One can see why many feel the USA as a declining power. Hard not to … sadly …

I should change my name here to Lonely Voice. I don't really agree that POTUS is the reason Putin went ahead, except that the boost Nato has gotten since Biden's election has definitely rocked the boat.

Nor do I believe the US gutted its military in 18 months over political ideology. We are not happy with this training nonsense, with good reason. But is the reality that we are suddenly no longer the number one military power? We have held a vast nuclear weapons umbrella over the world for decades and our conventional military is still second to none. As bad as Afghanistan was, I do not see the same pattern of US bungling here. Europe is much more in Biden's zone of understanding.

In a MAD world, the great powers have never engaged each other in conventional war on a large scale. With human existence at stake, Putin has decided to gamble he can pull this off. Once it gets going, no one controls it, so lookout world.

Heard it suggested that Putin may be replaying the Georgia conflict – just on a larger scale. Basically a punishment expedition – trash its infrastructure and military. Maxing out the borders of the artificial republics and securing a land bridge for Crimea sound reasonable objectives – whether Putin follows through on threats to get Ukraine's leadership for show trials (and no doubt executions), regime change in all but name, remains to be seen.

As for Ukraine it's a recognised sovereign nation whether Putin, or anyone else, likes it or not and is free to apply for membership of any international body it chooses.

Spheres of influence were not and are not a good idea.

The potential for overspill is dangerous.

That's why, in this case, we really do need an international coalition.

Not sure how that's going to happen.

UN – China will most likely veto any security council resolution (at best they abstain but that angers Russia and doesn't help the PRC claims of "internal issue" actions in the future)

NATO – this just plays into Putin's hands and probably any other non-NATO nation that NATO is just European/American imperialism wearing a mask.

"Coalition of the anti-Putins" – That would take some wrangling by secretary of states and it doesn't seem like they play much of a role anymore in negotiations, just statements.

I heard that keeping Nord Stream 2 offline is going to double energy prices in Europe; is that a thing or is this hyping the fear (don't live there so no idea what is happening)?

link

If anything went wrong this could be very bad, a global-level impact – would have thought that the Russian military planners would have avoided this particular facility like the plague!

Tortorella – I don't agree with much of what you said in your last post. However, it is good to see another POV …

And again … I will freely admit I am a bit biased …

NATO – this just plays into Putin's hands and probably any other non-NATO nation that NATO is just European/American imperialism wearing a mask.

Only Putin and his supporters/ilk would believe that spin/propaganda. At this point Russia will probably "annex" the Ukraine. At a high cost in troops, MBTs, etc. As will the Ukraine …

Russian military planners would have avoided this particular facility like the plague!

Much of that area is not as "toxic" as it was. However, they would probably avoid it anyway … But they are trained and know how to operate in that type of environment.

Maybe someone could help me. I have been watch much of the coverage of the war. They talk a great deal about the Russian military but virtually nothing on the Ukraine army not even what they are doing at this time. I see Russian forces listed at 150,000 and Ukraine's at 205,000 yet many reporters called the Ukrainians as being terribly out numbered. Is this based more on weapons and materials? Does Ukraine have tanks and jet fighters? Missiles (not nukes) ect?

The Ukrainians are basically a Soviet era military, I.e. their equipment is basically Soviet era. Outdated. Their best weapons are supplied by NATO. Basically I think of them as another Iraq. Lots of ground stuff, but no match for the more modern Russians. Navy almost non existent. Air Force weak. They don't have the terrain the Afghans had to work with. This was covered in another Ukraine thread.

The Russia Military greatly out numbers the Ukraine. The Ukrainian forces use a lot of Russia equipment, as well. They have MBTs, IFVs, APCs, SPFA, AT guns, aircraft, etc., mostly Russian design.

link

The Russian Military is this offensive is closer to 190,000. Where that large number of Ukraine military, includes reserves, etc.

link

Right now there are pitched battles going on in many locations in Ukraine. The Russians are winning a number of engagements. But the Ukrainians were slowing up the Russian advances. However, the Russians are still driving hard. There may end up being guerilla tactics used when the Russians enter cities & towns.

"Expansion of NATO"

Where exactly?

"No one will trust the USA to keep its promises ever again"

What promise did we break to Ukraine?

"If the Poles and Baltic countries see this as a precursor to a continued threat from Russia one option would be for Poland and Lithuania to invade Belarus, take ground and threaten to envelop the Russian forces from the north. Make it clear they have no territorial ambitions and they will withdraw when the Russians withdraw from Ukraine"

Oh Lord…..seriously?

Good questions Uesugi. And I would also like to hear specifics on how the US military has been downgraded within the last year.

Much of that area is not as "toxic" as it was. However, they would probably avoid it anyway … But they are trained and know how to operate in that type of environment.

Agreed the area per say isn't that dangerous, and soldiers are trained, but the sarcophagus that covers the remains of the reactor isn't in great shape and the new containment isn't bomb proof. A few stray munitions could create a horrible mess. Estimates suggest that as much 95% of the reactors inventory is still inside the structure. So just consider how much of a mess the 5% caused!

The Russian Military is this offensive is closer to 190,000. Where that large number of Ukraine military, includes reserves, etc.

Basically the Ukrainian government seemed to offering everyone who had previously served a gun if they wanted it.

Agreed the area per say isn't that dangerous, and soldiers are trained,

No doubt it is not where I would want to run ops. However, at this point the area is in Russian hands. They can have it !

Basically the Ukrainian government seemed to offering everyone who had previously served a gun if they wanted it.

Yes, they plan on doing MOUT Partisan ops in the cities, as the Russians enter. As was seen in Hungary in '56, etc.

"Expansion of NATO"

Where exactly?

Many former WP have joined NATO. Including many nations that border Russian. E.g. Poland, the Baltic states, etc.

"No one will trust the USA to keep its promises ever again"

The USA has left a number of "allies" hanging. E.g. Montagnards, etc., in Vietnam, the Kurds in Iraq/Syria, the ANA/ANP in A'stan. Off the top of my head.

What promise did we break to Ukraine?

IIRC during the Clinton Admin, they were told to give up their nukes. They would be "protected" somehow, IIRC ? They didn't then or now belong to NATO. And probably won't anytime soon. As it will belong to Putin.

Another option would be for the Poles to occupy the western 1/3 of Ukraine to protect refugees and ethnicity Polish citizens (didn't Putin use the same excuse in Eastern Ukraine)…most of that area was historically under Polish control prior to 20th century…Lviv (Lvov) was ethnicity Polish. Of course the existing Ukrainian regime would have to agree.

"Expansion of NATO"
Where exactly?

Many former WP have joined NATO. Including many nations that border Russian. E.g. Poland, the Baltic states, etc."

That's not what he was talking about Legion. He's suggesting we further expand the current Nato members. I'm asking him where.

And if you have to go back to Vietnam for who we broke promises to then you're no longer speaking about modern politics.

Can we drop the hyperbole in the discussion and stick to the facts? The US military, despite some really major hits over the last year, is still very powerful. However, I sincerely doubt we will be using our military directly in this conflict.

I do believe Poland is a wild card in this. I don't call for them to do anything, but they might do something other than stand idly by. The Baltic States also must be nervous. They are true Nato partners, though, and an invasion of them would be different than Ukraine.

The promise that both Russia and the US (and the other signatories) broke was the 1994 agreement guaranteeing the protection of Ukraine. (All of the signatories broke it in 2014 as well, so that agreement is basically null and void and was never legally binding in the first place.).

Due to Russia's actions, more nations are already looking to join Nato. Finland and Sweden to name but two. link

This isn't an easy situation to fix. It was built up over time. Military response isn't wise, but sanctions really aren't having an impact.

The only question reporters can really ask our leaders right now is 'Exactly how stern will the letters be that you write to Russia condemning this?' and will be about that effective on slowing things down.

We can't just let Russia keep invading other countries, but they are a major nuclear power, and Putin has all but come out and said directly, 'If you try anything, we will nuke you.' I wouldn't be surprised if he states that clearly soon. He's certainly hinted at it a lot.

I also said we clearly need an international response. I didn't say I expected us to get one. As I said, it's one thing for Russia to simply oppose the US and what it perceives it's puppets, but it's quite another to stand against the whole world.

I don't expect that to happen, but China has so far expressed more surprise than support and has stated that Ukraine is not like Taiwan (which they considered always part of China- not just recently). That seems to present an opportunity to get them on board with international actions.

As I said, this is NOT a simple fix. It will require the West to very deftly walk the fine line between provoking an even more unstable situation and simply shrugging until the next crisis arises.

I won't hold my breath, though. The new Iron Curtain just came down, whether we wanted it, or caused it, or not. Only time will tell if this one will take decades to break like the last one.

"What promise did we break to Ukraine?"

We guaranteed Ukraine protection if they gave up their nukes during the collapse of the USSR.

"No one will trust the USA to keep its promises ever again"

As Legion stated all the allies we have abandoned over the years. It shows a pattern of behavior and undermines our credibility over a period of time. Yes, you can go back as far as Vietnam… Now we can add to the list failing to protect Ukraine after they gave up their nukes.

"Where exactly?"

Any nation that shares a western border with Russia and is not part of NATO, Sweden and Finland come to mind. If Putin is into empire building, he might conquer any country not part of NATO. Putin seems hell bent on reconstituting the Russian empire.

We guaranteed Ukraine protection if they gave up their nukes during the collapse of the USSR.

The relevant assurances:

"Memorandum on Security Assurances in Connection with Ukraine's
Accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear
Weapons

Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and
Northern Ireland and the United States of America,

Welcoming the accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation
of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear-weapon State,

Taking into account the commitment of Ukraine to eliminate all nuclear
weapons from its territory within a specified period of time,

Noting the changes in the world-wide security situation, including the end
of the cold war, which have brought about conditions for deep reductions in
nuclear forces,

Confirm the following:

1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and
Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to
Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on
Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty
and the existing borders of Ukraine;

2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and
Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to
refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or
political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be
used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the
Charter of the United Nations; . . . "

PDF link

I know info is as precious as military equipment in times of war, and that for now is also scarce, but I do have the impression that modern wars fight like this (schematic): one army invades, the other ceases territory with little or no fighting – Ukraine to Russia, also the case of 'stan. Then guerrilla fighting starts and after some years of, let us call it, nonsense, the initial attacker returns home. All this time the civilians are taking all the huge costs. And now in a globalized world, we all share some of the costs, not only the belligerents.
I know it is hard to mobilize troops, but Ukraine knew what could have happened, and all its troops were already placed in high alert. Where are they? On paper only the tanks they have are more than all the East NATO members have. I don't understand this type of "war". Or is it like WW2 vs WW1, preparing for a "static" war and in fact it was blitzkrieg?

The Russians took control of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. Somehow I can't imagine that be sound thinking.

The Russians probably wanted to assure the Ukrainians didn't try to threaten to blow it open unless the Russians pulled out.

Does anyone make Russians of Ukrainians in 20mm or 28mm?

The Russians probably wanted to assure the Ukrainians didn't try to threaten to blow it open unless the Russians pulled out.

I don't think the area has any strategic significance. Fairly certain the Ukrainians have more important things to defend. I don't even think the other reactors on the site are working. I'd be more worried about the Russians blowing it up and blaming the Ukrainians…. (also bear in mind the work at Chernobyl is heavily funded from abroad ie our taxes).

Going back to the idea that China may provide a market for Russian oil and gas; yes, they probably can. But if I were Xi I'd be offering $10 USD a barrel – if you're the only customer, it's a buyer's market.

Endgame, I hope: Russia will need to reorganise and rearm following a successful invasion, that will take time. Time will allow sanctions to really bite – if I were a Russian oligarch or senior military man who's spent the last 30 years storing all my wealth offshore I'd be pretty damn pissed that one man has just lost me my retirement fund.

My hope is a coup in Russia within 12 months. We liberate Ukraine peacefully after that.

Fingers crossed,

Nick

Don't worry. He will make then pay for their aggression. Even now he is looking for an aspirin factory to blowup in russia.

Silurian: I have asked here a number of times how the US military went from being "totally rebuilt" by 8/20 to being weak 18 months later. The answers usually reference woke training, or something similar, along with veiled references to POTUS, not an objective data-driven answer.

Nick – I agree on the oil. China is nobody's friend. They are busy trying to control world finance. If that's the only regime that will help you, you may not have the future you think.