"Why A Second US Civil War Would Be Far Worse Than The First" Topic

Doc how much was North and South, as opposed to New England and the slaveholding Eastern Southern States? That division existed from before the Revolution. Never heeled and just got worse and worse. I sometimes think it went back as far as the English Civil War. We know which group represented which. The other areas were were drug into it. Some willingly, others not. Just like the Revolution, 1/3 supported one side, 1/3 the other and 1/3 just wished the other 2 would leave them alone.

The one thing we "had" that they did not, "was" the ability to explain and defend our views and beliefs and debate them. But with all the banning, that is quickly disappearing. People need to put pressure on Facebook, Twitter and others to reopen those avenues. Look what is currently happening with Spotify and a bunch of washed up old hippies trying to get a podcast banned because they disagree with what he says.

This has to stop! Communication and discussions must be reopened.

Tort I don't use them either. But I would if they were fair on allowing all views to be expressed. I can ignore hate groups. I feel that may be the only outlet to allow steam to vent. You never open a pressure cooker without venting.

35th, yes, good point: Virginia and Massachusetts were rival models from the start. But Tom Jefferson and John Adams could be -- then not be -- then be again very good friends.

I think, though -- and I wonder what Tort's thoughts are on this? -- that the two sides today are NOT mirror images of each other == no more than were the Puritans and the Cavaliers. One side seems to want to control everything, while the other side seems mainly to want to be left alone. When, as now, the things on which the sides want control, or to be left alone, are such as how children should be educated or whether one can protect one's family with firearms, etc. then the cultural and hence the political confrontations are explosive.

I will say 3 things have given me hope lately. 1) the parents uprisings against the agendas of the schools. 2) students walking out of classes due to continued mask mandates, or not wearing them and putting up with be separated. 3) the truckers March in Canada. Never thought I would look to Canada for leadership. 🙂. Go Canadians!

When NPR beings to weigh in, it is safe to say that talk of a second American Civil War has officially gone mainstream.

Since when has NPR ever been mainstream. It is pretty fringe radio from my experience. Even more so today than a decade ago.

Mirror images. Where I live we want to be left out of all this and think you all want to take over! And there is the rub. There are almost no open minds left in America. We hold our positions and will not believe anything that suggests otherwise.. More mirror images. The historical legacies of VA and MA have disappeared, mostly. They have changed and have much in common. They are more diverse than ever. Change is hard, but relentless.

We hear or see something in the media, take it for gospel, get angry, keep watching, hear what we want, repeat. What fools these mortals be!

The future is coming for our grandkids.I do not want them running around the countryside with guns. We have all been so lucky to live here and it is still the best. Our issues are stoked, even created by greedy media providers. We need to regain our common sense. I hope we remember how in time.

Tort short answer, because my time is limited this morning. Those on the "right" want to be left alone and think the other side is trying to take over.

One side believes Trump, Cruz, DeSantis…. are pure evil and the spawn of Satan.
The other side believes Obama, Biden, Pelosi, AOC…. Are pure evil and the spawn of Satan.

The media perpetuates these views by how they are portrayed daily.

Lotsa talk among frustrated lefties and righties about how this United States thingie just doesn't work anymore, time to Split! Red States are divided from Blue States and all that. That's the wrong move, and all the talk is just that -- frustrated talk. The real divide is the Urban vs Suburban/Rural split.

If you look at political Party membership and voting records, and election results, you will see that some 90 percent of US counties are "Red" vs 10% more populous "Blue" counties. The Democrats/Left are an Archipelago Party that dominates major metro areas, but do not reflect the country as a whole.

For example, ALL of California's crazy policy directions are steered by two dominant cities -- Los Angeles Metro and San Francisco (Metro Bay Area) that comprise almost half the State's population. These metro areas are hard locked by the Democrats. In those areas you will likely never see an opposition party candidate make the general election ballot.

Much of the rest of the State is more moderate to conservative and are not having their needs met by the current structure, nor do they like the direction of the State under the One Party system they are forced to live under.

The answer is Devolution, not a national Split. The big population counties need to be split off into their own States, even if they are City States. They can get their seats in the Congress and their two Senators and plunge merrily off the cliff while the other newly created States can choose their own course.

And then we can see who does a better job of governing -- and move or vote accordingly.

I have some sympathy with this view but it swings both ways.

California or anywhere else with a big population has to put up with Rural States like Montana, Wyoming, North and South Dakota each having the same number of Senators as they do to represent them, when LA on its own, has a bigger population than all of them put together.

Devolution is a nice idea but how would it work in a Federal system where the existing number of States can't agree on the color of grass, let alone a much larger collection of constituent parts?

Some of those big western states would have much larger populations were their resources not locked up as Federal lands with control (and often limited use) in DC.

Smartest thing Texas ever did was to retain its public lands when it became a state. Sell them, use them, grow.

SB and Traj, do you realize that you are both espousing basically the same views and thoughts , that both the Northern and Southern States espoused prior to the Civil War? The only difference being their arguments were slave state, non slave state and equal representation.

Traj did you really mean: "has to put up with"? You may not have meant it that way, but that is the view that "fly over country" finds offensive. The attitude that the only people who count are those in New England and the West Coast. "Disregard those horrible redneck, gun toting, Bible reading, deplorable hillbillies in between.". As I said, you may not have meant that, but is what we hear a lot via CNN, MSNBC, Late Night Shows, The View, Sitcoms, etc..

Our forefathers developed a system to try and stave off the more populous areas from dominating the less populous. They did not want a democracy, they wanted representative Republic, with equal representation for each State. That is why there are so many safeguards built in.

The devolution idea is interesting. I like the idea of not dissolving the United States. But it does seem like low population areas would be over-represented in Congress, more so than now under what you describe, SB. Not sure what happens if that becomes even more prevalent. Maybe it would be fine.
I don't believe entirely in the urban/rural split. I live in the rural western hills, lots of transplants from NYC but still mainly moderate. You judge us too harshly. ME is conservative independent, same as NH and parts of MA. New England gets a lot of media telling us who we are, also. Always keep ‘em angry!
I don't want the western states to not get their say, which I think they do now. I don't want them to lose their character, their land is more than just a place to put strip malls and housing developments, it's our heritage. And I don't think cities are throwing themselves off cliffs. They are not for me, but if we don't respect them as well as the rural states, nothing we propose will ever fly.

We need not dissolve the US. We want a strong united country to protect us in a hostile world. But a federalism that allows most issues to be resolved locally and at the state level, and therefore DIFFERENTLY, is the solution to our present bitter division.

each having the same number of Senators as they do to represent them

That's probably one thing holding a split back. The inability of one city or group of cities to dominate the country would be a greater rub that most other issues.

I'm curious if anyone can name a federal official advocating for toning down rhetoric? Referring to their ideological opponents as fellow humans with differing points of view? Sure people sing the "we're all together" but when people are constantly referred to as "the other" it starts the drumbeat. Who remembers "fly over country"? While not a slur it surely denotes the attitude of those saying it. By allowing corps to do as they please "because they are not political" (excuse me while I cough) and play innocent it just adds to anger. It's one thing for a Senator to say something, it's viewed differently when a talking head (which is most media) says it. Then if an uproar starts they cry "oh I didn't mean THAT, I really said THIS" as if most people can't read or hear exactly what they said. Now we live in a world of "fact checkers" who nobody knows who/what they are so a counter source is created and they pull the same thing, maybe less Orwellian, but it becomes an echo chamber. Most people in most countries that have civil wars don't want them, that doesn't mean it's not coming to them.

Well, there really are two competing visions of what America is and should be. We are not quarreling about trivialities, but about fundamentally different principles. That fact does not preclude extremism and paranoia on either or both sides, but the points at issue are not really compromisable.

We've been here before, twice. The second time was resolved by one side's triumph (1865). The first (Jeffersonioan vs Hamiltonian principles) twice threatened civil war but ended with both parties' demise (1816 and 1824) and a country that had large portions of both (e.g. a Hamiltonian Supreme Court under John Marshall vs Jacksonian democracy).

We shall see which model applies best to what is to come.

People are moved by theatrics, we have some great actors on the political stage and in the media. We are quarreling about whatever they tell us,. And what they tell us is designed to make us angry.

There is no academic argument that translates to everyday life in America for most people.

This division is a political battle about power and wealth. Fear of change has been weaponized. Mistrust is the result.

I do not think America is actually in any worse shape than it often has been in the past. The 60s had more riots and protest. The difference this time is that some politicians have figured out how to turn us against each other and sustain the animosity to fulfill their own personal agendas.

In my experience working with young people these last few years, there are a lot of them who don't buy it. They want the adventure of challenges, ideas, change, and making this an even greater country. Their time is coming.

But it does seem like low population areas would be over-represented in Congress, more so than now under what you describe, SB. Not sure what happens if that becomes even more prevalent. Maybe it would be fine.

Well, I'm more interested in State politics than US national politics. California, though some 40% voted for Trump in 2016 and about 30% in 2020, is a One Party State dominated by two metro areas -- LA and San Francisco. This allowed the Ruling Party to gerrymander and vote-fix to create a permanent majority. On many parts of the State you will *never* see an opposition party candidate of any kind. Since politics is not competitive, it is also not accountable or responsive, and things have become highly corrupt and wasteful. Huge swathes of the State are not represented in Sacramento.

Thought this was apropos to this thread. I have heard counties in Virginia propose joining West Virginia and some areas of California talk about a new State.

"New York rural towns weigh seceding from mostly urban and suburban county over COVID mandates"


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Tort you asked for this a while back. Had a hell of a time finding it. Number has climbed in February.

30 Police Officers Shot in January, Up 67 Percent From Last Year | Newsmax.com


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So now it is relevant, because "accepted" media says it is? This was my point earlier about the mainstream media. It was relevant long before this… Like in 2020?

Sorry, link is here

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Tort, I think we are quarreling about more than what they tell us. One side seems to hold to an internationalist viewpoint, and is dismissive of national sovereignty. The other, emphatically not. One thinks a powerful active government is a good thing, the other fears it. One thinks markets are overrated, the other thinks them the engine of prosperity. One believes in equity, the other in equal opportunity and equality under the law, but accepts the resulting unequal outcomes. And so forth. These things MATTER.

Tort, what is the change these youth are advocating for specifically? Curious. Thanks

Traj did you really mean: "has to put up with"?

Yeah I think I did. But I empathise its a two way thing. Fly Over States have that view on how they are seen but they have their own view of the Liberal Elite in the Costal and Metro areas.

It goes back and forth. "We are the real America" Yeah but "We are the ones who create all the wealth" etc etc.

They did not want a democracy, they wanted representative Republic, with equal representation for each State. That is why there are so many safeguards built in.

Which is pretty ironic given the way people on both sides of the political divide bang on about the value of democracy as they see it. Not to mention "safe guards" are turning into stalemates.

a federalism that allows most issues to be resolved locally and at the state level, and therefore DIFFERENTLY, is the solution to our present bitter division.

There are those who would argue that this already exists and is the very cause of that division.

The ability to have 50 different versions of pretty much everything and a Federal system that can't impose itself on its constituent States in any real manner is causing the worst of both worlds.

A nation that wants homogeny and total self determination at the same time!

Re HB, I am only commenting on irony as I also see family members of the top leaders on the right financially invested in China on a large scale.

35th, I do not doubt this shooting data is true as I was using line of duty fatalities data. But getting shot and surviving should be part of the data for this discussion.

Doc, I feel like it is wrong for one side to make such broad definitive statements about what the other side believes. These may or may not represent some people's views, but they are also politicized media talking points. Division is good for ratings and ratings mean profits. Profits mean power.

Do you really believe the US is collapsing and it's one guy's fault? One political party's fault? I do not. The media can make a good jobs report look like a disaster. This does not mean there are not problems, big ones. Sometimes I think we are now too angry to get anything done about them.

I believe there is a vast bunch in the middle who look for balance on these things, not endless fights. You are not going to get enough people to buy into reshaping the US. We are doing way better than the rest of the world when you look at everyday life for most of us, and we get through the tough patches like inflation, unemployment, GDP time and time again. Not perfect, but who wants to take a chance on losing everything in a civil war? Not most Americans, I think.

My college level young friends have shown far more focus on real world issues than political theatrics. Medicine and health, ecology and environment, bio engineering, agriculture is especially of interest, as is energy, and issues of diversity.

They are carving out careers with commitment. Our political adventures are not a priority. They see through BS and make rational choices about where they want their future to be headed.

They never watch tv, by the way. Everything is shared via social media. I am hard pressed to say they are wrong, they know how to sift through it. They are better at prioritizing and balancing the serious issues than I am. If they could just learn how to be on time….

Traj, stalemate in this case may be a good thing. Most people who talk democracy do not understand their own government. Athens was a democracy. It was a disaster. A Democratic Republic is better, but it has its own issues, especially when politicians realize they can buy votes via bread and circuses.

The division seems more along the lines of major cities and College towns and those outside those cities. Not as much East/west/north/south. Exceptions exist, but they are more exceptions then rule. The election maps blue/red show that. Some would also throw in age.

It is interesting. I was recently In Nashville. Relatives and people I talked to who lived there all their lives were not happy. They have many moving their from NYC and other major cities in the East, escaping the high taxes and crime (their own words, not mine). But they were still bringing their politics with them. I was shopping in Franklin and shop owners were selling tee shirts with slogans like: if you move here, leave your politics behind.

35th, I meant to tell you that my county has talked of seceding from Massachusetts for years. Feeling ignored by state government out here in the hills.

We have had a flood of city people, many from NY area move here. They were not worried about anything there but the pandemic. They are more of a cultural change for us. They call us "woodchucks". They have money, like to build big houses. They do not care about secession or civil war at all, dismiss the whole thing. Almost all are business people.

Have they changed the voting demographics of your area? More blue than before? Curious. Check the voting percentages. In other words, did they change how they thought, or stayed the same. Not sure how they escaped the pandemic. It is and was everywhere. Only the restrictions may have been different.

I suspected this when it took a few days to be made known, as opposed to let us say Kyle Rittenhouse.

I know this may not be an acceptable source to some. There were others out there, but google search engines can be, let us say "fickle".

Man Who Rammed Car into Winnipeg Freedom Convoy Protesters is Antifa Activist David Zegarac


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We will know in a week or month if the ANTIFA connection is true. All else is verified on Canadian sources.

Let us see how the mainstream media handles the reporting of this.

The Antifa connection may well be true. Anti-fascists here generally do not kill people, and they are not really an organization, more of a loose movement set on disrupting things. But Zegarac is reputedly a classic case, a former punk rock performer and an anarchist with a huge chip on his shoulder.

Yes, our NYC transplants did come in many cases to escape the pandemic, which originally landed via the NYC airports and was pretty bad for a while. The majority are conservatives, but they are fish out of water in small town politics. We are mostly moderate Dems and a LOT of independents. Right now we have a split left/right wing town government. We followed a lot of Covid restrictions early on and have a low population density. Not as many cases as a city.

Anti-fascists here generally do not kill people, and they are not really an organization, more of a loose movement set on disrupting things.

I'd bet a bunch that this will turn out not to be true. The Sons of Liberty, for example, LOOKED like a loose movement, but were in fact created by and used to great effect by a small (about a dozen) group of radicals led by Sam Adams, built around the two pre-existing mobs (gangs) in North End and South End Boston. A large movement requires organization to be effective, though it may well conceal that organization for reasons of security and propaganda.

The Caucus Club (Sam Adams and his friends) controlled the Boston Town Meeting which in turn controlled a number of sinecures and low-level public jobs (pig warden, night watchmen, etc.) The radicals used this patronage to reward supporters and it gave them control of the streets, especially after the Massacre. The Committee of Correspondence (same dozen guys) then extended radical influence out beyond Boston. They had their own newspaper (Boston Gazette, whose editor was one of the twelve) and other front groups such as the Masonic lodge and particular taverns.

All things are a compromise, and it seems somewhere along the way we forgot how to compromise.

Basic civics class taught me the wisdom of the Senate having 2 Senators only per state. It is a check and balance- and a compromise. Right from the get go the founding fathers understood that you need rich, populous states and poorer, less populous states to work together without one running roughshod over the other. You have two bodies in congress, the House of Representatives and the Senate. The former is based on population. I never hear smaller states complaining that California gets 53 representatives (congresspersons) while Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota Vermont and Wyoming only have 1 each.

Yet I hear bigger states complain all the time about having to have the same number of senators. The reason for this is so that all states get a say in government- otherwise what is the incentive for smaller states to even stay in the Union (or join it, which was the original reason the compromise was agreed upon)? Make the Senate into just another House of Representatives, or worse, strip states of Senators, and see how much worse the division gets, as smaller states realize they get no further say in anything and the tyranny of the majority reduces them to silent and forgotten partners.

The current system is intentional and meant to balance each body and serve as a check against one state forcing others to go along with what they want to happen. It's not a bug, it's a feature.

We used to start with 'where do we agree, and can we build on that to make something happen?' Now we start with 'You are evil and if I agree to anything you say you will use it as a cudgel against me in the next election, so I simply won't ever agree to anything with you.'

When I was growing up, politicians called each other names, made up ridiculous hyperbole and at the end of the day they went to have drinks together and went into back rooms to work out a deal. They may have stated that the other party wanted your grandma to die, but they didn't really believe it. We've since had a whole generation of people who truly believe the other party wants your grandma to die and that they really are all the things that were once simply rhetoric to whip up their bases. They are true believers in the fallibility of the people on the opposite side of the aisle.

Yoda had it right. Fear leads to anger. Anger Leads to Hate. Hate leads to suffering.

But this horrible path we are on won't change if we all live in our social media bubbles. This is worsened by a mass media that wants nothing more than to make money off all the whipped up rhetoric and narratives that they construct rather than report facts and let us decide how we want to react.

Look around your neighborhood. You likely have people living there of all political stripes. Do you really hate those people? Are they fighting one another in the streets? Other than the few kooks on both sides (who have far more voice in our modern times than they ever did previously), are you really more likely to find people who want to go along to get along, or people who want to get in your face forcing their beliefs on you? If you live where the latter is more likely, I am sorry for you. That stinks.

There are people in my neighborhood who I feel are politically misguided and plain wrong. I don't hate them, I don't want them silenced or crushed. Maybe they really do want that done to me? I don't know. I hope not.

In the old world, I'd likely invite them to a bbq and offer a beer and talk it out (if we all weren't in our covid bubbles). Outside of the technical constructs we've created for ourselves, I believe most people are that way, but due to our modern conveniences, hate is easier to foster and ignite despite these realities on the ground.

Tgerr. True my town is mostly one way, but I have neighbors who voted differently then me. In all cases they are teachers and or work for the government. I know, not all teachers believe the same way. My niece is one and believes the same as me. Just found it interesting when I thought about who in my neighborhood voted differently. Even my own daughters let me down and voted incorrectly. 🙂 Like you, I believe they were misguided. 😉 Also there sources of news are very limited as they do not have cable, by choice. Maybe in the long run, it is better for their mental and physical health not to.

YES!!! Thank you TGerittsen you have hit the nail on the head. Common sense, reality.

The US is shifting, changing. People often fear change. But we get through it. Media outrage may relieve some fear, but the resulting anger only increases their profits, does not get us anywhere.

You could be right doc, I know you do not trust FBI assessments. But I don't see these guys holding any rallies or getting into politics, and they are far less articulate and organized than Adams was. I am not dismissing them, they just are decentralized, not strong as a group, and have no clear manifesto they all follow. Its the nature of anarchy.

To me, this is a perfect example of the extreme language from the media that have led to our issues. Now "insurrection" has moved to Canada. 🤣 US citizens are up there helping. One was carrying eggs and even threw them! The humanity! (That was from a CNN transcript, but you can find it on the web). Didn't Canada have some real violence in the not recent past? Something about some statues of Queen Victoria and Elizabeth being defaced and or torn down. Civil war is spreading, lookout England, France and Germany. 😉

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Consider this scene from the film "Duck You Sucker."

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Serio Leone said it better than I ever could have.

Do you hear the People honking?

Yes Doc. Have not slept in days. 😂

The divisive rhetoric may look scary, but I wouldn't rate it as the beginning of a Civil War. We had similar perturbations in the sixties and after a bit it died back down. I expect this will too.

Obviously my point is how easily the word "insurrection" is thrown around and with so little justification. Just like "racists", "white supremists", etc., when someone else's views, don't adhere to your sides. Just let like "communists" in the 50's and 60's. If you can't win that way, then ban alternative viewpoints, books and shows you don't agree with. ( I believe all sides should be heard. No more banning. Open your mind to alternative views.).

Nobody in his right mind should want any kind of civil war – especailly in the country where you have more guns than people.
If any real shooting starts it will escalates very quickly and with very bad consequences. We had our civil war after 1917 revolution, and were close in 1991 and in 1998.
In some other FSU republics they actually had civil wars, lasting for years, and I'm not even talking about Yugoslavia.
Your neighbour will be your enemy bcs he has different religion, skin colour, has more money than you or has different views on your country's future.
Remember all these zombie/vampire films? Yes, he looks like the same person, but he is no longer your friend.

In Russia, in critical situtaions army was generally ignoring civilian infignting – unless there was a real threat, like in Transnistria or Asian republics, where they were forced to intervene to save lifes. In 1998 Yeltsin had trouble to find those, willing to shell the parliament. Not sure, what can happen in USA.
Bad peace is still better than good war. You have too much to lose, so I hope you'll find a way to solve the problems.

As do most of us. Revolutions are bad. Civil Wars worse.

Totalmente de acuerdo!….

Armand

Yes Tango, Hopefully so will everyone else.

The new yellow journalist really love to stir thing up, it still sells newspapers (or gets clicks if you will).

No civil war is coming. The pendulum will swing and the folks that CNN called "mostly peaceful" with buildings in the background burning will be back in the street being cosplay revolutionaries.

As the old saying goes; "The worse thing about civil wars is you don't get to kill foreigners"!

So true !

Tort. Heard 13 police officers shot in the line of duty Friday night. Wow, in one night. 😢

Yes, I saw those figures too. There is a war on LEOs. They don't get support from the top down. As LEOs have been vilified. The narrative is they only go after minorities, even hunting them down, etc. Still some activists, even some on Congress, etc., keep pushing a defund the Police agenda.

Crime is up and it has little to nothing do with Covid …