"Why A Second US Civil War Would Be Far Worse Than The First" Topic

"Why a US Civil War could be even more disastrous than the first: When NPR beings to weigh in, it is safe to say that talk of a second American Civil War has officially gone mainstream. Shockingly, however, given the gravity of the topic, much of the current, rancorous debate appears to underestimate the long-term damage that would ensue following a second Civil War. It is therefore crucial that we clarify the reasons why a new Civil War could lead to a far more enduring disaster, for America and the world, than the War Between the States.

The problem with the recent discussion is that, while most analysts correctly point out that a new war would look very different from the last, they draw the wrong lessons from this observation. As the political scientist Barbra F. Walter has recently noted, in a 21st-century war there would no longer be two large armies, wearing uniforms, facing off on the battlefield. Instead, as we have seen in countless civil conflicts around the world since WWII, the environment would be dominated by fluid complexity. Much of the violence would come from ununiformed fighters, motivated by divergent ideologies but fighting for overlapping goals, committing sporadic acts of terror. "Think about Northern Ireland," Walter said recently on CNN, drawing comparisons to a conflict responsible for approximately 1,900 deaths over the course of several decades…"
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Armand

Good one Armand. We need a stark appraisal. The next civil war is our last.

It will be a quick one … one side dressed in vagina hats and wielding rubber dildos and the other side consisting of people who have probably trained all their lives for this sort of thing

Agree with Tortorella and backstab. When I was studying White Nationalist fiction for my PhD in American literature, I noticed a lot of novels and forum posts revolving around how to train and what the next major civil war or rebellion would look like. One author insisted that the best way would be to attack the leaders of the other side "Mafia-style" (as he put it) with 3-man teams. Admittedly, the fictional insurgents were fighting a guerrilla independence war, akin to the wars of independence in Africa and Asia to breakaway part of the United States and form an all-white country in the Pac Northwest.

backstab – you don't realize how cognizant your comments are. The Left relies on memes, twitter and social media to cudgel other Lefties into kowtowing to agreeing with the 'social issue du jour'. Most of the people on the right (I use that term very loosely), know guns, have been around guns their entire lives and are more familiar with guns than the average Leftist, whose only experience with guns are FPS games. Finally, I would argue that over 90% of all the former military in the United States are conservative/right, I don't see it being much of a contest if it was just between groups of 'armed' citizens.

The problem is if the secret police (FBI, DHS, pick any of the alphabet soup organizations), police (state troopers, city police and/or county sheriff) get involved or, God forbid, the active military was ordered to help one side or the other. That would not only tear the nation apart but destroy the military beyond repair. However, I wouldn't put it past any president to order the military to shoot U.S. civilians if he/she thought they could retain power.

Well they just ran this:

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I realize this may be stunning to some people, but there are plenty of people on the left with ARs and the like. Plenty of them are disgruntled veterans too.

Optional, you are correct. They are BLM and Antifa. We saw them in Portland, Milwaukee and elsewhere summer after summer. Also don't forget those in the cities like Chicago, New York, LA, etc. who use them every day and more on weekends.
Hymie you too are correct, they will bring in Chinese "freedom volunteers" without a second thought.
There are more armed "militia" on the left then there are "white supremists". We just don't call those on the left "militias", it's just not right. The "white supremist" is just a buzz word for those who don't agree with the policies on the left.

My point. In the last Civi war, the Confederates were more than willing to have the English or French come in with armies on their side. The Union if that happened would have probably looked to Russia or elsewhere. My contention is, if the left/liberals believe they were losing, they would do the same in a heartbeat. More palatable now.

Optional field is correct and 35thOVI is wrong. I am not Antifa or BLM, I am a veteran and learned to shoot at 10 years old. I also know plenty of people that can shoot and it is easy to teach people how.

Dogtail I will also add the Whites in the Russian "civil war". How many countries came to fight for them. If you have an issue with "Chinese Volunteers", what were the Chinese called who came to the aid of the North Koreans, during the Korean War? The were not called the Chinese Army. What was it the Chinese said? "Volunteers".

Machinehead, I never said there were not those on the left that know how to shoot and own guns. I just pointed out organized groups of leftist who do.

Why would I want a Civil War? Why would you assume I would? There are no winners in Civil Wars. They are bloody and awful. They divide families. I did not bring up this subject, nor would I. I would probably die in it, as would you. As would many on here. It could not end well. "Our" country weakened and ripe for takeover. But I will also not sit by and allow only one side to be blamed for even a possibility of one. There is way to much demonizing of the Right as "racists", "white supremists", "deplorables", "redneck hillbillies", "gun nuts and Bible tokens".

Are "disorders" really a civil war? We've always been a violent society. I do not believe that -- and pray we never see -- it would be a war UNLESS one or more state governments defy national authority on some fundamental constitutional issue such as private ownership of guns.

And the solution to many of our cultural differences is federalism; leave things to the states and let people vote with their feet.

Thailand offered to help Old honest Abe in the last late unpleasantness. I would like to see some union elephants on the table. Remember, men with pot bellies dont make revolutions. So, we will need inflation and starvation to continue to worsen before any of this is moot.

Again, please explain. What about what I said is not factual, or conjecture based on previous Civil Wars? Am I incorrect about the "words" used about the right/conservatives by the other side? Was Antifa and or BLM not armed? I saw them with weapons, even some bragging about it.

Actually I pretty much said what the article did. I knew I had read it before.

The next civil war is our last.

So much drama. Might simply end with two sides going their own ways.

I am a moderate who can shoot. I shoot paper targets with a handgun. I have a rifle. There are a lot of us. We don't act like militia. Its a sport.

If you think it is so bad here now, we have survived other leadership droughts and bumbling policies. I just came from a fully stocked grocery store. Inflation was worse under Nixon, who had to freeze prices. I can still buy gas for less than it was before the Great Recession a few years ago. I lived through protests in the 60s. There are radicals on both sides, also liars and cheats, and corrupt news sources. We have seen all of this before.

So I'm not gonna let some immoral rich politician tell me I am a victim, and then run around with a gun, looking to do what? Who would I fight? I will never take up arms against the United States.

Not trying to be dramatic Bill. It just sounds so extreme.

Maybe you are right Bill. Maybe some people want to secede and maybe some people don't mind if they do.

Remember, men with pot bellies dont make revolutions.

I believe some of the Southern secessionists looked pretty well fed back in 1861.

Civil War 2.0 is happening now … But it is virtual, using high tech internet, media, and even within our gov't.

Highly doubt any factions on either side will start shooting. But the high loose of LEOs in the past couple of years is as close as we may get to shooting. The LEOs are being killed by criminals with long records/rap sheets.

You want a bloody civil war … there it is IMO …
Groups like BLM do not represent the African Americans I knew in the Army, etc. It is very concerning to me. How the average African American is reflected by BLM, etc.

Like many radicals and their movement's, they are a very vocal minority. Causing damage way larger than their actual numbers. There is fighting in the streets … just like in a civil war.

Legion, the main reason for the sharp increase in line of duty deaths is Covid, maybe 2/3 are Covid. The worst recent year for line of duty gunfire deaths was 2016, but last year came close. This year is off to a bad start.

I have not heard that COVID was a large reason for LEO deaths. BLM, etc. have vilified the Police for the actions of a few. Tying the hands of many LEOs, can't do their intended jobs. Or arresting the criminals. To keep the average American safe.

All this anti-LEO movement, have caused many LEOs to retire, etc. If their hands are tied and can't do their jobs. And are considered criminals and the criminals victims. That is not right …

I am of the same opinion's as Tortella.

Russ Dunaway

I agree with Legion

"It will be a quick one … one side dressed in vagina hats and wielding rubber dildos and the other side consisting of people who have probably trained all their lives for this sort of thing"

No backstab, it would NOT be a quick one. You would be surprised as to how fast people can react and learn to survive and fight for their lives when they absolutely have to.
Yes some of the "sillies" on both (or more) sides would go very quickly, but then it would boil down to those determined to go through with what they see as "right"….

This is something we really REALLY don't want to have happen here. It would be a disaster of epic historic proportions that I think we as a nation would never recover from.

This is all absolute nonsense.
There is a tiny group of people concerned or paranoid about a civil war.
The vast, vast majority of people are going about their lives. I look at all my neighbors, of various political persuasions, perhaps grumbling about this or that, but not a thought of armed insurrection or rebellion in their heads. They believe in this country and the democratic process. Things get bad for a bit; then things get better again. That's how it goes. Just because things don't go a certain way is no reason to whine like a baby and hoard the weaponry – and most people don't.
How many other people in certain other countries would give all for our privileges and system? There are good times and bad times, but this country is great all of the time.

I have not heard that COVID was a large reason for LEO deaths.

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If we are going there.
One reason it would be difficult is the side more well armed is not the side controlling media and with it social media. So organization Nation wide is difficult. 2nd the Federal government it seems loves to infiltrate groups if not actually promote and recruit people which then turns them in.
Not to say one side won't push the other side into do or die just it will be difficult.

14bore, yes, which is why I think disorders do not amount to civil war unless some state governments defy the US government. There are several issues that are fundamental enough that such is imaginable.

So Doc, are you advocating for or against the 10th Amendment? Your wording is confusing.

When you say defy, do you mean for instance the federal government taking over elections and taking them away from the States? That power resides with the States.
What about revoking of the 2nd Amendment, or limitations on it? That is a constitutional right and cannot be infringed on. Although we know there have been attempts to curtail it.
On the other side, let us say the States would try and set up a Federal Bank. That power belongs to the Federal Government, not the State.

‘The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited to it by the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the People.'

I hope I am close to the wording. Just looking for specifics of what you mean. Thanks

I hope Shelby Foote's assessment of the previous one is heeded and Americans' true genius is rediscovered..
youtu.be/He4eTjVPuvE

That you Steve, for the data back-up. I have said this here before. As you can see, Covid fatalities outnumber all other causes combined.

It was not a good year for line of duty gun fatalities last year, but worse in 2016.

The pandemic has skewed a lot of the crime demographics, I believe. A lot of cops out sick with Covid, longer hours, lower morale related to negative media. Criminals emboldened. The judicial system undermined. We need more cops, good cops, trained and fully supported.

Right on the money, clibinarium.

As an outside observer (but from Canada – and someone who both trained the US and has most of my family there) I think the nay-sayers on the future of the US have grossly underestimated the ability of the American people to adapt, evolve and overcome – and I agree with Shelby Foote!

The next fight will not be a civil war… it will be a true Marxist revolution as the culmination of a class struggle.

A class struggle that Marx failed to see.

It is what we are seeing now. Things do not look good now for the American Bourgeois.

Joe Collins

I think the 10th Amendment is great and is too much ignored.

I think the more is left to the states to do as 50 'laboratories of democracy" the better. We will have red and blue states, and people can choose.

When you say defy, do you mean for instance the federal government taking over elections and taking them away from the States? That power resides with the States.
What about revoking of the 2nd Amendment, or limitations on it? That is a constitutional right and cannot be infringed on. Although we know there have been attempts to curtail it.
On the other side, let us say the States would try and set up a Federal Bank. That power belongs to the Federal Government, not the State.

Revoking the 2nd Amendment would be grounds for revolution. Ditto a federal takeover of elections. And I think in those cases and some others there would be states interposing themselves between their citizens and tyranny.

As to class struggle, yes, but it is a Marxist elite against the populist working class and what remains of the middle class.

Thanks Doc. Sounds good.

I don't know Doc. They seem to be pretty close that the federal will take over elections and I don't see outrage. Highly doubt there would be a revolution over it.

Joe and Legion are correct, and it IS happening now.

It kicked off

It continued/escalated 1 – 2 years ago when so many cities and towns came under attack – 574 separate ones, apparently, and when our law enforcement personnel started being attacked and assassinated, not to mention ALL the arson, attacks on courthouses (including the US Supreme Court), police precincts, attacks on other innocent citizens, looting of businesses and destruction of those, etc., etc. The financial impact from these attacks is measured in BILLIONS of dollars.

Thus far this year, one police officer has been killed almost every day by assassins, usually due to unexpected ambush attacks.

As long as law & order is maintained at the local level (town, county, etc.), there will be no widespread 'civil war'. Most people just want to be left alone, and won't get involved (unless backed into a corner and forced to. But, there is pushback starting against some of the insanity…)
So, Please support your local police…

Facts. Gun fatalities in the line of duty did not start a couple of years ago. It has been with us a long time. In this century the highest number was in 2016. Multiple sources, data from police departments around the country.

I believe 2016 gun fatalities were caused by criminals, not people planning to take over, but people trying to get away with various crimes. They don't care about politics. You cannot report a new crime crisis using cop Covid fatality numbers unless you are media with an agenda. The pandemic hurt us in many ways. Criminals saw their chance.

The NYC ambush looks like a war on cops. Like Chicago. Criminals organize sometimes. The events of 2020 were political, but there were a lot of criminal opportunists who jumped on that bandwagon also.

2020 is over. It ended. It made its point, whatever that was, to each of us. Like Newark in the 60s, where I saw tanks roll up my street and heard the gunfire in the distance. You live through that and you see how the United States survives. Changes and adapts through every kind of messy challenge people throw at it.

Grattan ….Who wants one party to assume control of access to voting, or have the power to disallow votes in order to alter vote counts? There will be a lot of backlash, not a civil war, IMO. The states that are doing this are going to drive up voter registration like crazy as people respond. IMO.

No civil war. We need more crime prevention. Always. This includes more and better trained cops, justice reform that works based on common sense. Better mental health services, better education. A lot of street kids think crime is their career choice. We incarcerate more people per capita than any nation on earth. It's like free training for criminals. How's that going for us?

Wise words from Tortella – for conflict of interest purposes I have a bunch of family in law enforcement (including my niece whose first watch is this week) and I work with police all the time – but I have to say it is striking how the "defund the police" people seem to be people of privilege living in safe neighbourhoods – more cops with more training and incentives not to pursue a life of crime would be good first steps

I believe what I am saying below is germane to the topic of Civil War and it's causes.

One of the biggest contributors to the divisions in this country is caused by one sided and divisive media reporting. This is not new, but it is far more one sided than in the past. Many on the "right" believe they have only one source of mainstream media that portray their views, but countless for the "left". How do those who believe one way, totally discard the media of the other? If you don't watch, how can you claim to know? What I list below is just a small sampling of what I see as some of those differences. The list could have been huge.

The way different events are covered by most of the media and politicians. For instance whenever an "unarmed" black individual is killed by police. The media immediately comes in on the side of the one, and condemns the police, before listening too and hearing all the evidence. Michael Brown "hands up. Don't shoot". It is a long list, too long for here. Now compare that to how Nick Sandman and Kyle Rittenhouse were immediately portrayed. Both immediately condemned as racists. Both pilloried and condemned as guilty by the mainstream media. Again no evidence, no trial, immediate guilt.

How about Darrell Brooks and Waukesha Wisconsin. How many have already forgotten? Why? A black man running purposely through a crowd of whites at a parade. Weaving to hit as many as possible. How was it portrayed initially by the mainstream media? "A car killed..". What have they said since?

Also since violence has been brought up, specifically against police.

346 shot in the line of duty in 2022, 63 of them killed. 30 police officers shot in January of 2022, 5 dead. I believe 2021 is close to a high. 2022 could exceed the high. But for some reason really only delved into on one media station.

Think back to the previous Civil War. How was John Browns "raid" portrayed by the media in the East? How about in the South? A hero to Abolitionists, a villain to slave owners. He even got a song. What was he really? Just think if both presses had been unbiased.

Would we have ever had the Spanish American war if the press had been fair and looked at the evidence?

Would we have entered WW1 if the press had been fair?

For tensions to cool, we need the press to take on the responsibility of de-escalation. Become less bias. Bring in "real" views of all sides. Will that happen? I have little hope.

Things may look grim in the U.S., but the U.S. is still far more stable than almost anywhere else (except maybe Switzerland). And we are certainly a more stable society than China and Russia. The population of Russia is smaller than that of Nigeria or Bangladesh and is getting smaller all of the time. The Russians have enough trouble holding themselves together as it is. As for China, ask yourself this question, if the U.S. and China were both to experience serious economic downturns, which country would start to unwind faster? Yes it might get ugly in both countries, but the only two things that hold China together now are economic prosperity and force. So what would happen if that economic prosperity vanished over night? I am a very conservative individual who teaches at a fairly liberal institution. Not surprisingly, most of my friends are liberal. One has a BLM sign in her yard and most are registered Democrats who almost never vote for anyone other than Democrats. Nevertheless I truly care what happens to them and they care about me. We have all stuck by each other in tough times and we will continue to do so. By the way, my friend who has a BLM sign in her yard has a neighbor who flies a Trump flag in his yard every day and both remain good neighbors. I don't think that you will find such friendships in China, and I doubt if you will find them to be as common as they are in the U.S. in many other countries as well.

First I stand corrected. While we were talking about officers killed with guns, recent FBI data shows last year was the worst year since 1995, 2016 and 2011 are close. This received substantial coverage on CNN.

I am not sure where your 2022 data comes from, 35th. Do you mean 2021, re 63 fatalities?

I believe the crisis of division is the real issue in America and it is entirely driven by bottom line profits in the media. Cable news is a hot mess, it doesn't even care anymore about straight news reporting. Its moderate professional journalists are running away from it.

Partisan media has driven us to national madness, laughing all the way to the bank

Good points 35th. I don't agree that rioters were not condemned. This was pretty wide spread, I think. But you can still make a point that the riots were not portrayed objectively.

And, I often channel surf the news to see who is NOT covering something. Much quiet censorship on both sides.

You are are right in your conclusion. I don't have much hope right now, but the US is more resilient than these media companies want us to believe. They need us angry to draw viewers, make money. We have been fooled long enough, we need to learn how to assess the rhetoric for the truths it may still contain.

As usual Tort, fair. I saw the stats on a site. I will try to dig again. Used search engine asking for officers killed and wounded in the line of duty in 2022. Something like that.

You know Tort, I was thinking. The best thing for all sides, are areas like this that will allow all our views to be expressed. Like a Volcano relieving pressure, as opposed to exploding. That is why I am upset with the policies of Facebook, Twitter and others with their banning of views they don't agree with.

Kevin I hope you are correct. Most don't want a war.

The current controversy over funding the Canadian truckers is illustrative. GoFundMe had collected and now refuses to pay them $10 USD million. GiveSendGo, a Christian fund-raising site, is replacing GFM. Once again, we see an institution dominated by the left (who have had no problem funding violent movements ON the left ) being replaced by an alternate rightist institution. The right is in process of constructing its own financial infrastructure, which is (sadly) necessary. Constructing its own educational system, too.

But the Civil War was in large part the consequence of the cultural separation between North and South that was complete by 1860 when the Democratic party, the LAST national institution, split three ways over slavery. Other organizations, and especially the churches, had already split: "no communion with slave owners!" The political secession was the logical consequence of the total cultural separation.

Georgia has joined Florida now.

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Thank you , Kevin. I feel the same way.

I do not use Facebook or Twitter, 35th. They have stoked our divisions, I feel like somebody could be stalking me. They are private corporations, can do what they like, ban who they like. You are free to not use them. I have to admit I am relieved about less tweets in the news. But these companies are too powerful.

The volcano analogy is a good one. Or a Russian battleship at Tsushima trying to get one more knot of steam out of a poorly maintained boiler. If they don't slow down, it's gonna blow.

It would be interesting if we asked everyone to name one good thing about each of the last two Presidents. How many could/would admit that each is not entirely bad?

But this is not the place. Our discussions here by definition have to be framed around topics at least somewhat relevant to miniatures, gaming, history. We can touch upon things via civil discourse, if they connect at least somewhat to our main reason for being here. It's easy to forget this. I am trying not to become a repeat offender!