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"Putin vs NATO. Does Belorussia join in? Thoughts?" Topic


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nsolomon9914 Jan 2022 5:33 p.m. PST

Guys,

I value the knowledge and smarts of this forum. What is the thinking on this topic of Putin vs NATO? The drums of war are definitely beating and this morning I wake up to some news reports that have a distinctly September 1939 feeling with Putin's Special Forces potentially infiltrating Ukraine to stage an attack in Ukrainian uniforms that will allow Putin to "liberate and protect" via an invasion. Its Hitler's radio station attacked by Poles scenario all over again.

Makes me wonder how the actual military situation might unfold? Will Putin leverage the Belorussian Lukashenko's dependance on Putin's support to bring in Belorussian forces on the Ukraine's northern front? Would the Belorussian army actually fight for Lukashenko? Will Putin's navy leverage amphibious operations along Ukraine's coast now that he controls Crimea? Will he drop paratroopers? Does Russia still have paratroopers? Or will it be a classic Soviet armoured blitzkreig across the Ukrainian steppes?

Your thoughts?

Note: I have specifically stated Putin rather than Russia because I do not believe the majority of Russians probably want a war with Ukraine and NATO. This seems to be all Putin, ex-KGB Colonel, thinking like he's a young man in the 1980's again.

Thresher01 Supporting Member of TMP14 Jan 2022 6:55 p.m. PST

He's emboldened due to weakness in the West.

Apparently, according to the news tonight, they have trained "city fighters" (urban combat specialists) already in Ukraine, and supposedly they are working on "false flag" ops to create an incident or incidents, if he can't goad Ukraine into a conflict.

My guess is that the "Russian Guerrillas" will be reinforced, and that Russian troops and vehicles may freely flow across the border soon.

Grattan54 Supporting Member of TMP14 Jan 2022 7:47 p.m. PST

Just don't see this happening in the middle of winter. Way too cold for start of a war. If anything happens it will be more likely i the spring.

Perun Gromovnik14 Jan 2022 11:50 p.m. PST

I doubt that anything will start at all

Royston Papworth15 Jan 2022 9:47 a.m. PST

If anything starts, it will be Russia vs NATO, NATO will concentrate against them and then when things start to go NATO's way, the Belorus will come into play…

Shagnasty Supporting Member of TMP15 Jan 2022 10:28 a.m. PST

If Putin strikes, watch the Pacific. I see a Chinese attack on Taiwan to take advantage of our distraction.

Personal logo The Virtual Armchair General Sponsoring Member of TMP15 Jan 2022 3:03 p.m. PST

Winter is the classic season for a Russian offensive. The ground is firm, rivers/streams frozen, and they enjoy a long history of of such campaigns. Anyone remember December 1941? November 1942? January 1945?

NATO will do nothing but wring its collective hands and hope the Ukrainians can stand essentially alone. Britain has promised and delivered some aid, as has the US, but President Prevagen will not commit the US to any direct conflict with Russia.

An interesting, if very unlikely "what if?" might be Poland entering the action in direct support. The Poles know they would be next within a few years (as do the Baltic States). They and the Lithuanians harbor a justifiable hatred of all things Russian, and perhaps the very threat they might get involved would be the only one that might make Putin think again.

A Polish/Lithuanian attack on Belarus would almost certainly put the fear of God into any Russian forces committed within Ukraine for fear of being cut off. Moscow would have to withdraw forces to support Belarus, pretty much ending any realistic hope of conquering Ukraine.

It is to be expected that Russian amphibious forces will attack Odessa in order to control that crucial port, if only to prevent any possible material aid being delivered to Ukraine in bulk. Kiev knows this, so must be trying to hold aircraft and the country's limited naval assets in a posture to allow them the chance of striking such an invasion force en route from Sevastopol.

It may be assumed that the US is sharing satellite and other intelligence with the Ukrainians, so when an invasion force puts to sea, their should be a chance to strike before reaching their landing zones. In the HIGHLY unlikely event the US was to get involved, our submarines in the Black Sea could make very quick work of such an invasion fleet, not to mention Sevastopol itself. But that would be direct involvement, and would mean we were firing FIRST.

Ain't gonna happen.

That said, the Russians will certainly try to open the show with air and missile strikes on Ukraine's air and sea assets in order to prevent any interdiction, so landings won't
likely begin until D+1 or 2.

Also, look for significant Russian airstrikes--after those initially targeting Ukraine's air force, fields, lines of communication, troop concentrations, etc--on population centers in the hope of cowing the populace to a quick surrender. The humanitarian crisis will be the worst in Europe since 1945.

And, yes, if the fighting looks like it will last a month or more, Taiwan will absolutely rise to the top of the "Other Shoe To Drop" list. Beijing and Moscow (not to mention Teheran and Pyongyang) KNOW the US will not become involved in a two front world war.

Public demonstrations/rioting here in the US against any involvement in either crisis will further paralyze a feckless government until such time as both wars are settled with essentially none of its vaunted military forces influencing their outcomes.

It is also at least possible that while Putin and Xi both need to strike in 2022 before the growing chance that a Republican/Conservative control of the Congress could interfere with his plans, they might have agreed to coordinate actions, virtually guaranteeing inaction by the West in general. They don't have to be friends to pursue their own lifelong goals when conditions for each are most favorable.

Once more, I hope I am so wrong on all this that I can be publicly shamed for it.

TVAG

Cuprum215 Jan 2022 6:20 p.m. PST

It remains only to understand why Putin did not seize Ukraine in 2014, when it would have been no problem (especially since the legitimate president would have been on his side, and a significant part of the population would have welcomed Russian troops with joy).
And why does he need to seize Ukraine now with a population that is no longer loyal? To get yourself a constant headache? Ukraine is a poor country with a destroyed industrial potential. This is now a burden that will require huge economic injections – so it's better to leave this problem to the West)))
All Putin is interested in is not allowing Ukraine to become an outpost for a NATO attack on Russia, which means preventing its entry into NATO.
The point of attacking Poland is beyond my understanding… Poland is a member of NATO, which means that this is the automatic start of a nuclear world war. Do Putin and the rest of the Russian leadership want to live in a nuclear winter? I strongly doubt it.
The only one that can be of real interest to Russia is the Baltic countries. Since the time of Peter 1, Russia has sought to obtain good ports on the Baltic Sea for its trade. But even then, now the construction of new Russian ports in the Baltic is going on at a fast pace and the importance of the Baltic ports for Russia is significantly reduced – just look at the turnover of goods through the Baltic and new Russian ports.
But if the "Russian threat" suddenly disappears, then the external financing of the countries of the "cordon sanitaire" at the Russian borders will definitely decrease, which will create a lot of problems for them. So who is interested in whipping up military expectations?)))

Personal logo The Virtual Armchair General Sponsoring Member of TMP17 Jan 2022 12:50 p.m. PST

Cuprum2

When the Russians do invade--anywhere--I eagerly await your calm and clever explanation why it isn't happening.

TVAG

Cuprum218 Jan 2022 4:37 a.m. PST

I promise. If this happens of course.
And you undertake to explain why the invasion did not happen, if it does not happen?
It would be necessary to designate control dates. Spring? Summer?

lkmjbc318 Jan 2022 12:31 p.m. PST

Why would Putin want the Ukraine? It is a dumpster fire.
He may invade the Dombass area… but otherwise???

Joe Collins

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