"China will invade Taiwan in..." Topic

You were asked – TMP link

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III recently said that Chinese military flights near Taiwan look like rehearsals: "I don't want to speculate, but certainly… it looks a lot like rehearsals." Predict the year in which China invades Taiwan, or whether China will never invade.

28% said "China will never invade Taiwan"
21% said "2022 or sooner"
12% said "2023"

I think they'll do it in boats.

I think it will happen via political means: covert operations leading to a call from Taiwan to China to "help us".

I think they'll do it via tourism. A few million Chinese go on holiday to Taiwan, over the course of a few consecutive months. And…then they forget to leave. Easy peasy.

Not until after the Olympics … but probably never IMO.

Yea, they'll definitely wait until after the Olympics, though I do suspect there will be some incidents/large air ops displays during the sporting events, just to show they can do it whenever they please.

When the Chinese merchant fleet sails towards world ports but take a collective turn mid route and beach themselves on the the Taiwan coastline, after turning off all their transponders tracking their movements. Plus as Stryderg mentions the planes of "tourists" getting lost.

50/50 if done before the term of Biden ends. Expect the Chinese government to short the US stock market the weeks before as the crash will be monumental.

"To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill." ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Eventually Taiwan will cease to exist as an independent entity and will do so willingly . As is the practice Taiwan's leaders and outside supporters will be bought off by economic concessions and trade deals. As Beijing's strength increases, in both militarily and economic terms, the cost of any war , military or economic, will become too much .

Beijing has consistently gotten what it wants without any serious repercussions starting with the 1949 takeover.
-Intervention in Korea prevented a foreign invasion, -takeovers of Tibet and Xinjiang in the 1960s were successful
- the deaths of millions during the Great Leap Forward and Cultural revolution and the West did nothing.
Suppression of the students in Tienanmen Square , of Falang Gong and now the Uighurs all greatly protested by outsiders but nothing was done
Most recently there is the total repudiation of the Hong Kong treaty and again nothing is done

China is rewarded with the Olympics and countries are falling over each other to become part of the new Silk road initiative.

China just has to wait . Let's face it no western country wants to sacrifice its own people and have their economy wrecked to save a bunch of little yellow people on the other side the world, Korea and Vietnam put an end to that.

The only variable would be disorder in China and the CCP plays the patriot card.

Eventually Taiwan will cease to exist as an independent entity and will do so willingly .

Not going by current trends. Young Taiwanese increasingly do not see themselves as Chinese. This is a part of the social and economic trends behind the election of Tsai Ing-Wen. Her policies are also slowly guiding Taiwanese companies away from outsourcing to China. That outsourcing is one of the key complaints of young Taiwanese.

"To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill." ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Bingo … and IMO that will probably be the case for Taiwan.

But we will have to wait & see. Again, the PRC/CCP play the long game.

Bingo … and IMO that will probably be the case for Taiwan.
But we will have to wait & see. Again, the PRC/CCP play the long game.

I sure hope the CCP is playing the long game. Time is not on their side.