"Russia is preparing to INVADE Ukraine by the end of January" Topic

The tankers carrying LNG to Europe are apparently bringing in substantial amounts, more than is imported from Russia some days. Each ship can supply 70,000 homes for a year.

Barin1, of course this is the case, but Putin is the original spin master, and brought this all on. He is getting a taste of his own medicine. IMO there is nothing wrong with showing some strength and unity when it comes to Putin. Even if there is more than one agenda it's about time
I notice that the US adapts it's rhetoric each time Ukraine expresses concern about the language. Politics is a dirty game, but maybe the end result will be,if I may use this word, positive.

Sorry it 2 Cav, typo. Thank Legion as well!

Glad to help. That link I posted, if you scroll down, it has links for each Stryker vehicle type. And TO&Es of the different Stryker Bdes. link

Update on US troops deploying to the "Eastern Front", from Military.com :

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This is excellent, very helpful. Much thanks Legion. I finally get how some of these unit terms are units.

Yes, I thought it was a pretty good link. When I was on active duty, '79-'90, Strykers were not available, they still may have been on the drawing board ?

At a local county fair about 15 years ago(?). The Army Recruiters had an Army unit deploy one of its' Strykers. I was the standard Infantry carrier version. Seemed a bit tight. Maybe even tighter than the M113.

Huh. I guess RUSSIA! RUSSIA! RUSSIA! worked well enough to put the dismal jobs report out of the headlines, so the Biden Admin is dropping the imminent invasion thingy…

White House ditches Russia-Ukraine 'imminent' threat assessment

The White House is distancing itself from its previous assessment that Russia poses an "imminent" threat to Ukraine. Press secretary Jen Psaki contended she and her administration colleagues had deployed the descriptor "once" regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin's plans in neighboring Ukraine….

…[now] the U.S. intelligence community "still has not determined" whether Putin will invade Ukraine as he amasses upward of 100,000 troops along their shared border.

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The Ukrainians asked the US to stop ramping it up with that word. More than once, as I recall. So we did as they asked. That's what it means.

Harris Faulkner said today on Fox News that the NATO allies are not involved and US troops are "going it alone" over there, with no policy.

AFAIK all of that is true …

Well, it's not easy to pin down exact numbers with online sources. NATO even has a website. I found several reports and estimates elsewhere.

But it seems quite clear that thousands of European troops are deployed. More on alert. It looks like there are maybe 8000 deployed around the border areas. A rough guess. They have added fighter aircraft, increasing their standard air cover patrols. Increased naval presence.Several countries say they are getting ready to deploy more troops. France says it will deploy forces to Romania.

It may not look like much, but we are not "going it alone" and apparently never were. Macron has been very active coordinating things and keeping lines of communication open.

Belarus President Says They Will Fight By Russia's Side If Ukraine War Starts

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What Happens To Europe's Energy Supplies If Russia Acts?

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Armand

Took them long enough to see…

Biden rattles his sabre at Putin … but it's Xi he really wants to scare
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I'm surprised that in contrast to his normal writing Tisdale is seeing some aspects of the problem right. There're still some funny phrases, like this one about Biden: " his instinct is to uphold democracy and freedom in countries threatened by Moscow".
Does Tisdale really think that anything in the world is about democracy and human rights? they might become handy if there nice business or geopolitical interests behind…
And I doubt that Xi looks scared now.

(smile)

Armand

Perhaps now the real showdown that has been brewing for years is coming. I agree that the Russian/China alliance may end up defining the era. I don't think anybody looks scared. Yet.

America's Great Security Challenge is China. Why Can't Europe Handle Ukraine? – 19FortyFive


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This is a good one 35th. POTUS made the pivot to China the US goal, but his comfort level is more in dealing with Russia. So we get a significant response to Putin.
And the idea of Europe uniting its resources to become a military superpower is critical. I get that it's not easy for them with Russia right there, but it's time to get it together, literally. Last POTUS was right about NATO.

US/NATO is a match for China/Russia and a chance for balance.

Ukrainian civilians learn combat tactics amid Russian threat

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Armand

My $ is on Putin won't attack …

was right about NATO.

Yes he was … today many NATO militaries are paper tigers at best.

But they could and should be more than that in today's circumstances. The whole world is safer with a stronger Europe.

Well, THAT will put the fear of consequences into Putin's calculating heart!

Pentagon orders departure of U.S. troops in Ukraine as Russia crisis escalates

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He is no doubt much relieved by the departure of the 160 members of the Florida National Guard said to be our only troops there. Is this really all we have there?

Yeah, not a lot of troops, but when you're spouting off about "dire consequences" and then pull out your soldiers -- not a good look…

Its gotta be the economic sanctions and they had better be for real.

Is this really all we have there?

I had read we only has 125 SF/NG training the Ukrainians. Regardless I think for the most part, there should be not anymore US troops in Ukranian. However, I don't doubt the CIA with some SF are still working in the shadows. I hope some at the top remember what happened when we pulled out of A'stan. And became "blind" as to what is really going on. Again mostly likely we have CIA/SF in small numbers there as well.

Its gotta be the economic sanctions and they had better be for real.

That is the biggest, best "weapon" the US/NATO has. But some how[I know the answer!] we ended up buying oil from Russia. When a little over a year ago the USA was selling oil and was energy independent ? I guess that part of the GO Green agenda …

There surely will be various assets in Ukraine still for communications and assessments.

We imported at least 700,000 barrels of oil a day, some sources have said more like a million, just from the Saudis throughout Trump's term, it fell a little during the pandemic when demand slowed. We also imported from Canada and I think even Mexico during that time. Our declining dependence on foreign oil started years before Trump, but we are not there yet and supply and demand is all over the place world wide.

We cannot go green by government intervention.

But you must show proof of US citizenship. (Understandable) AND proof of Covid 19 vaccination. 😂🤣. I had also heard you must have had a recent Covid test too, but not in this article. Can't be too safe. Because we know the vaccine stops you from getting and spreading Covid. 😂

Gee … if the Russians come over the boarder of Poland, will they stop unless they have been vaccinated?🤔

🤔 Eureka!! That's it! Ukrainians tell the Russians they can't cross into the Ukraine unless they are fully vaccinated and tested! That will stop Putin. Bet he's not ready for that. Genius.

Subject: Poland Opens Border To Americans Fleeing Ukraine As Fears Of Russian Invasion Rise


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So now the US is in a state of declared "national emergency" over Ukraine and Russia? What is wrong with the people in charge here in the US??? Obviously so dire it barely made a ripple in the news cycle, and just last week the Biden folks declared there was no imminent invasion threat…and now there is, like the week before that???

Biden declares Russia threat 'national emergency,' lobs sanctions; 10 diplomats booted over election meddling

President Biden on Thursday signed an executive order declaring a "national emergency" over the threat from Russia, as his administration slapped new sanctions on the country.

The U.S. Department of State said it is expelling 10 officials from Russia's bilateral mission.

"Today, we announced actions to hold the Russian Government to account for the SolarWinds intrusion, reports of bounties on U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan, and attempts to interfere in the 2020 U.S. elections," Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement.

1. The reports of bounties on US soldiers has proven to be a total fabrication.

2. The 2020 election "interference?" I am not aware of any documented Russian meddling in 2020, the US' own domestic political forces took care of that handily. Oh, interesting news from the Durham investigation – the Clinton campaign paid people to infiltrate the Trump Towers, hack the servers and plant "evidence" of Russian banking collusion.

So how much of this is theatrics for domestic politics to prop up the RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA narrative??

OK, my faulty prediction, for what it's worth:

1. Putin will declare the already basically occupied Donbas region of Ukraine to be the "Republic of Donbas" and part of the Russian Federation. This will formalize the defacto status.

2. Putin will move "defensive units" into Donbas and build permanent bases.

3. The Western Europeans will wail and finger wag a bit, but they are more interested in cheap natural gas via the Nord Stream 2 pipeline than Ukrainian security. What the Eastern Europeans will do, dunno, maybe it will drive the formation of a new democratic Warsaw Pact in addition to NATO since they figure the rest of NATO doesn't really have their backs.

4. The US? More unpredictable given the wild policy swings under the current POTUS – but probably some wailing and gnashing, some short-lived sanctions and posturing, and then back to business as normal.

5. China will applaud Russia's actions defending ethnic Russians, talk more loudly about how China is concerned about the global safety of ethnic Chinese and use Western and US impotence to full advantage.

I do not expect a major war. Anyways, my prediction.

if this turns out to be a exercise as he stated ,he has a lot of troops currenty in Belorussia now, maybe on the way out he takes out Lukashenka and reclaims belorussia for russia would give him a nice starting point for a future attack on kiev from the north later when things quieten down (troops pretty much in place occupying belorussia) build up may not be as noticed then
hear its marshy that area so thinking as example light armor pt-76 types etc just to get thing going
supply lines need amphibious trucks, what have they got (thinking something like m29 weasel or lvt-2 buffalo types )

I have been looking at the maps in the news and if it were a board war game, I would have to think that the Russian troop concentrations north of Kiev along the border seem pretty dense and threatening. No idea what the terrain is like there or what kind of forces Putin has there.either that or it's a diversion.

I am not sure we want Putin taking Belarus, but it would be one dictator taking out another for a net gain of zero.

No matter what POTUS does, it will be reported as wrong on the right.

I think Putin is a serious problem in his own right, not a political diversion, and the result here is critical to the China concerns as well. Sanctions are the only real tool, they remain our position and we consistently share Putin's activities with rest of the world to minimize his own propaganda rationale for his actions. We have adjusted our rhetoric at the request of Ukraine.

Putin sees weakness – I think he sees we are badly divided and easily susceptible to media manipulation. He hears just what he hoped for on cable news all the time, he could not ask for more. He uses social media to promote discontent here. We lose focus, turn petty. All we can think about is politics,fake issues drummed up for media ratings, like culture wars. it invades every part of our lives. It has made anything he wants to do easier.

I sometimes wonder whether anyone in the US would notice if Putin landed troops here while we provoke and fight each other over just about anything.

@SBminisguy
The news you cited was from april 15th 2021. It has nothing to do with the threat ofimminent invasion

To put it into Diplomacy game terms…

Army in ROSTOV to DONBAS
Army in BELORUS SUPPORTS Army in Rostov to DONBAS
Fleet in SEBASTOPOL to BLACK SEA

Volkstrum…?

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Russia Have Already Started Their Hybrid War Against Ukraine

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Armand

may not be as noticed then
hear its marshy that area so thinking as example light armor pt-76 types etc just to get thing going
supply lines need amphibious trucks, what have they got (thinking something like m29 weasel or lvt-2 buffalo types )

Russia Amphib vehicles … some are copies of US – link

IIRC the Pripet Marshes are mostly in Belarus but a smaller part is in the Ukraine. They were a concern in WWII. But less so today.

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Why less so Legion? Better vehicle and tank designs? It looks like there is a lot of water.

Maybe the Russians will hold off so as not to disturb the Northern crested newt!

12 Military Reasons Why A Russian Attack On Ukraine Looks Imminent

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Armand

Well all I can say is Russian troops were not massed on the border during the last administration. That President was accused of being in Putin's back pocket. So all Vlad would have had to do, was walk in and his old buddy would have given him the Ukraine and what ever else he wanted, Poland, Hungary, Estonia, etc., at least according to his opponent party and the mainstream media. I mean Vlad loaned him 2 prostitutes to urinate on Obama's bed (false), dealt with the Alpha Bank (false), colluded (false) and now the below. Also who was President when the Crimea was taken? 🤔 as usual, the mainstream media ignores the weekend revelations.

Subject: Media Reactions To Bombshell Durham Report: Liberals ‘Just Have No Idea About Any Of This' | The Daily Wire

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35th, whatever hard evidence comes out of this remains unclear based on the link. But my point is just that. One side has papers. The other side has papers. On and on.

I am looking at Putin and the role of the media in weakening public support for POTUS statements about actions related to Ukraine as being a political campaign tactic by some cynical media owners and stars who profit from it. I am thinking this is a big part of why Putin is now so comfortable doing what he is doing. We are a divided force, cannot act as decisively because we are consumed with internal strife. Both sides of the media have adopted a certain business model in the pursuit of ratings.

This does not excuse Afghanistan, which was a major blow to our prestige and influence. Putin already knows first hand what happened to his country in that place. It has been a major blow to all who entered. But this time the buck stops with POTUS and it hurt his standing as a leader. It backs up much of what has been said about him here in terms of military competence. Never mind that his predecessors were not much better. Putin's Soviet Union collapsed in part because of Afghanistan.

The last POTUS was right to call out NATO, who need to be stronger and better team players, especially with trouble right on their own doorstep. I hope we can improve on this no matter what happens. China looms large over all of this.
Europe is a weak link in the balance of military power, IMO.

Tort, there are many links. I just grabbed the quickest this morning, so far mostly on one side. Will anything happen with it? Does anything ever happen? No. Sides are drawn and one goes on the offensive and the other the defensive. Do I believe that the Russian collusion was all a campaign ploy? Obviously yes.

Having said that, we seem to be more like the Romans and the Byzantine. Constant factions more concerned about power and money, than the Barbarians at the boarders. Sometimes I believe TV might be our worst enemy. But what we both agree on is, that foreign policy should be the top priority of our administrations. All other concerns fall far behind that. We need a strong and powerful military. Without safety, nothing else will matter.

Do you feel this POTUS is a strong man? Do you trust his abilities to make correct decisions under stress? There were many things I did not like about the previous POTUS, mostly personal manners and communication skills. But, I always believed he would try to do what was best for the security of our country and I did not believe he would make a wrong decision in a crisis situation. I cannot say the same for the current occupant. He scares me, a lot.

Why less so Legion? Better vehicle and tank designs?

Yes better vehicle, AFV, etc., designs, better tech, even better road nets in some locations. Plus the Russians are aware of what happened there in WWII. They know their history. They won't get bogged down. It is their backyard …

The first link I put in my last post talks about WWII.

The second talks about the Pripet Marshs …

Yes, Legion I saw what the marshes look like. I had not thought about road technology. My dad flew from a very muddy field in Italy off of metal mats. They were pretty handy and I am sure there is new tech on this.

35th, I don't know too about the current POTUS as a commander, but Afghanistan was obviously not good. He has been through a lot in life and in government, but that may not make a good commander. There is the judgement thing. I think he is a patriot and tries to do the right thing, as did the last POTUS. But again – Afghanistan.

I think the last POTUS was fairly hands off about this kind of stuff, and wisely so. No experience, not well versed in history, geography or military. I suspect he delegated a lot and got what he needed from people. Which is a command skill in itself.

I do think this POTUS is more likely to do better with Putin than he did with Afghanistan, which was a bad thing made worse. I think what is happening with Ukraine is the best we can do and has been handled pretty well up to now.

Both of our recent presidents have scared me. I want Eisenhower back. I hope we don't get in trouble with Bill for these posts, no intent to start any.

Should not get in trouble as they pertain to the current situation, decisions and what we believe different Presidents would do or have done.

Who was your Dad with in Italy. Used to have a lot of contact with the 52nd FG.

A Ukraine Brochure Has Been Released On What To Do In The Case Of War

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U.S. Officials Say Russian Military Units Near Ukraine Have Moved Into "Attack Positions"

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Armand

I saw what the marshes look like. I had not thought about road technology. My dad flew from a very muddy field in Italy off of metal mats. They were pretty handy and I am sure there is new tech on this.

Yes, since WWII, etc. tech across the bord got better, much better in many cases.

Those metal mats, IIRC are called PSP – Perforated Steel Planks. I'd run into them now and then at sites, abandoned & active, sometimes way out in the middle of nowhere.

Thank your Dad for his service, too …

, but Afghanistan was obviously not good

As I said I am a member and on staff of the local Military Officers Assoc. of America and liaison to the local Airbase Community Council. No one has anything good to say about the A'stan debacle. The ARMY did a investigation on the withdrawal from Kabul. It had nothing good to say about those at the top … the very top. However, when confronted with that, they/he rejected it's accuracy and pointed fingers elsewhere, etc. Still claiming it was a great operation. If I say more, I'll be DH'd. But we loss 13 good troops that didn't need to die. And my figures point directly to the top.

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I post these in honor of the 13 that died, due to … well if I say more I'll get DH'd.

Thanks Legion… I think they were called Marston mats in WW2. Italy was cold and muddy fall through spring. Fifteenth Air Force was flying a lot of missions against German industry and oil targets, the mats made a sort of instant airfield that could hold B-17s full of bombs on a near daily basis.

I don't think "rejecting" the Afghanistan report invalidates it in any way. You can't reject what happened.

35th! The 52nd, "yellowtails", because of their paint jobs, flew P-51s from a base somewhere on the coast of northeast Italy. My dad was in the 99th BG based at ….Tortorella, outside of Foggia.

They all flew up over the Alps to Austria and Germany, Czechoslovakia, even to Blechammer in Poland to bomb the synthetic oil refineries. Some long hauls. They saw their first German jet fighters over Austria. The gun turret motors could not turn fast enough to track them, but the P-51s took them on and figured them out.

Yes the Yellowtails. I became friends with an officer of that fighter group when he volunteered at The Air Force Museum in Fairborn Ohio. He gave me the contacts for many of the pilots of that group. I corresponded with most of their top aces for a short while. He gave me a silk escape and evasion pilots map of the groups. Covers all those areas they flew through.

I am pretty sure I have talked with a few 99th BG members. Have to check my folders.

Appreciate his service.

Thank you. They are almost all gone now….I belong to the 99th BG Historical Society. Used to be a lot of them there but now we are almost all their kids, keeping it alive for the next generation..

I think they were called Marston mats in WW2. Italy was cold and muddy fall through spring. Fifteenth Air Force was flying a lot of missions against German industry and oil targets, the mats made a sort of instant airfield that could hold B-17s full of bombs on a near daily basis.

Yes you may be right, maybe called PSP later, etc.? Regardless, those mats made a big difference for forward airbase construction, etc.

I don't think "rejecting" the Afghanistan report invalidates it in any way. You can't reject what happened.

Yes, that is my point. Those whose job it is to fight a war are again, being told they are wrong by the civilian elected and appointed gov't officials. Now we know the military must follow the legal orders of the CinC, etc. That is a good system, started by our Founding Fathers.

However, those in charge at the top ignored the good council of the military and intel sources. Making it worse the CinC/WH, etc., are calling this debacle a success. Any military leader worth his rank knows it was far from a success. And many said so publicly, retired & active duty. Once again politics & optics is more important than the facts. Or the 13 dead troopers' lives.

However, for those that only watch the 6 O'clock legacy news or some cable media, etc. They will believe what they are told. I.e. this was a great operation, will go down in history as such, etc. Because of the "wonderful, wise, skillful", etc., leadership at the top, etc. Which in fact it is just the opposite …

From Military.com : "Russian Tanks don't fear mud" …
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I don't know for sure, but I bet those tanks go faster on frozen ground!

I am always saying I am not a big fan of POTUS as a military leader and this kind of thing is why. In wars, leaders never want to give people news that makes them look bad, but sometimes it's better to say that mistakes were made than deny them. Especially since it was clear that mistakes were made. POTUS took heat from every major news outlet that I saw. Yeah there were no great answers to the whole mess. But it's part of the job to deal with it and acknowledge the obvious.

I don't know for sure, but I bet those tanks go faster on frozen ground!

Yes they do, or on improved roads, etc. But in many cases you may not choose the terrain to go into battle on …

If I say anything about the POTUS … I will be DH'd …

Yes, we do not want to be repeat offenders!