"Russia is preparing to INVADE Ukraine by the end of January" Topic

Here's what America must do to counter Russian aggression against Ukraine

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Armand

Ukraine Military Commanders Admit A Russian Invasion Would Overwhelm Them

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Armand

Should we start a pool … with various dates when Putin will cross the Ukrainian Border ?

A Ukraine Invasion Could Go Nuclear: 15 Reactors Would Be In War Zone

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Armand

The POTUS will be talking to Putin today … so that should fix all of this … ah … maybe (?!??????) … Vlad is former KGB … 'nuff said …

I think Putin has no edge with Biden. There are no talks that will fix everything in one sitting anyway. But there are signs – the recent token withdrawal of Russian troops, and Putin asked for this call. There are no friendly connections between Putin and the US like we saw in recent years. There are diplomatic meetings coming up in January involving security.

Biden will never trust him, no Helsinki humiliation for the US this time, I think. But can he back Putin down? Very unsure – but this is not Afghanistan. Cutting Putin and his oligarch buddies in the US and Russia out of the world finance system is for real. These guys love money.

Have not heard anything yet as of what came out of the meeting.

But for better or worse … Putin is the Big Dawg at this game, IMO. But there is the bigger picture to consider as well. Give the USA/NATO the edge … maybe ?

No resolution, Biden reiterated our position, punctuated by some spy planes over the Russian forces, which were for show. Putin trying to figure out whether it is worth the risk to attack, I think. Agree he is the big dog for the moment, but it looks like he will see what happens in the January meetings, see what he can get from it.

I would expect an increase of NATO forces in Poland is being readied. It's a game for now, we will see how it ends in a month or so, I am guessing.

Yes, seems there is no real change in the situation. However, Putin know this is not 2014. The Ukraine is much better prepped for an invasion. Regardless, if Russia wanted to it could take the Ukraine. However, both sides would suffer huge losses. Even Putin sees the folly in that.

Any NATO force anywhere near the Ukraine will be prepping for combat or movement/deployment. It's SOP in these situations.

Putin has to know the Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO anytime soon. Plus even if he wants NATO to "stop spreading East" … he has not control over NATO nations.

And stronger sanctions, etc. are always in the USA's/NATO's options.

IMO the USA allowing Putin's pipeline going to Germany only emboldened him. He will take advantage of every weakness he can. IMO this was an error on the USA's part.

This is not exactly how it works, I think. Germany was the problem, it imports 90% of its gas. The Europeans need at least another ten years to get to 50% renewables. They have done pretty well so far, but it takes time. Energy there is complex.

A few months ago, Biden met with Merkel and they made some sort of agreement involving the pipeline and energy assistance from the US to Europe, including Ukraine. Then, in November, German regulators put Nord Stream 2 on hold.

I am guessing this drove Putin nuts. Prices have gone way up and Germany is actually its own selling reserves to Poland right now. The whole thing is complex, but the pipeline is just part of the leverage the US has. By working with Europe, we can decrease demand for Russian energy.

in November, German regulators put Nord Stream 2 on hold.

That is a good thing at this point …

The whole thing is complex,

Yes, many things are when it involves Putin, Germany, etc., etc.

but the pipeline is just part of the leverage the US has.

Yes that is what has been said … I hope it is used, if true …

By working with Europe, we can decrease demand for Russian energy.

That would be the best outcome … I'll wait and see.

So will we all, Legion, with fingers crossed. In the end Putin decides what he thinks it will cost him and whether it's worth it.

Putin is a "bottom line" kind'a guy … even if he was KGB …💰💰💰💰💰💰

U.S. Chairman Of The House Intelligence Committee Says It Appears Likely That Russia Will Invade Ukraine

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Armand

Just another warning to Putin that there will be consequences.

He won't invade … it will be a blood bath he can't afford on many levels. But the USA/NATO needs to work together with sanctions, etc., to keep the pressure on Putin. Make it hard for him/Russia to do anything.

Putin, Xi, Iran's mullahs, etc., can sense weakness in the USA's leadership. And they will/are taking full advantage of it.

Ukraine's Army Is Underfunded, Outgunned and Not Ready to Stop a Russian Invasion

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Armand

I don't entirely agree Legion. IMO Putin had mostly clear sailing under the last POTUS. Remember Helsinki? No POTUS has ever acted like that, all the while alienating NATO Allies. Clear sailing forPutin, and by extension China and others, who could easily see Putin was the big dog re the US. And before the last POTUS, the previous one did not respond to Putin's aggression in Crimea.

Now I feel like he is not as sure. After Afghanistan it looks like more weakness, but maybe not this time. His personal connections here can no longer help him, the US again fully supports NATO, and the two personal meetings with POTUS have apparently opened no easy doors for him.

I agree the invasion would be a blood bath, but I think the uncertainty of severe sanctions and restoration of NATO cohesion are also concerns for him. Now he has other distractions. And maybe he does not want to spoil China's Olympic party with a major war this month, now that China and Russia are so cosy.

He may decide we are still weak enough and roll the dice, but I bet no. Before everyone goes crazy supporting the last POTUS, these are just my opinions regarding the lack of diplomatic talent that has been a major US weakness in recent years. I don't think any POTUS in this century has done well on the world stage.

I don't entirely agree Legion. IMO Putin had mostly clear sailing under the last POTUS.

Nope … once KGB always KGB. He knows the difference between the 2 POTUS. And those differences are glaringly obvious to almost everybody, IMO.

the lack of diplomatic talent that has been a major US weakness in recent years.

I generally agree … but not in all cases.

I don't think any POTUS in this century has done well on the world stage.

Again, generally I agree … But some of our govt's leadership has been stronger than others. In some cases, weakness was clear, IMO. Regardless, Putin, Xi, etc., like any predators' sense weakness. And will take full advantage of it, IMO. 'nuff said …

UK Preparing "High Impact" Sanctions Against Russia Over Ukraine

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Armand

👍👍Now … where is the rest of NATO ?

Especially want to know about Germany and France, getting energy into Europe, deployment in Poland and elsewhere, plus a naval presence to add pressure. But I am hoping we don't know because we are not supposed to know until the talks end and Putin knows what to expect. He will put his own spin on everything as usual and claim he is the victim, classic bully.

I believe the US has told him the Ukranisn guerilla war would be well supported and he could expect to lose men and equipment.

Yes, Putin has already "war gamed" the number of outcomes, I'm sure. He is seeing how much he can get without firing a shot.

The Art of the Deal … ask more than you expect to get …

"Do you know what the word "comrade" literally means in Russian?)))
The person with whom you have a common property or business)))"

Actually Russian word "comrades", "tovarichi", mean looters and maradeurs with their war cry – "tovar ichi" – look for the loot. ;-)

I was not aware of that ? I think Cuprum gave me a very different meaning for that word. Cuprum ?

Cuprum gives you old meaning, like Hitler's swastika was an old Orient sign of happiness or something, but then the communists came, killed all Russians and started looting..

Is it supposed to be funny? I'm afraid nobody has your perverted sense of humor here… you're in the same boat as Russian nationalists who are claiming that etruskians are Russian, as the word obviously mean that they're Russians, or those in Ukraine who show their ancestry from Trojans.

What Are Russia's Military Options In Ukraine?

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Armand

Cuprum gives you old meaning,

What ?

"What ?"

As you know, the Russian is artificial language, created in 1666 from several neighbouring languages, mostly turkish and old slavic. So "comrades"/"tovarichi" comes from Polish "towarczys" which means originally "companions". So Cuprum was right about older meaning.

OK … as Cuprum said he & I are "comrades" … because we both like wargames, military models, etc. So that is all good for me !

US Considers Backing An Insurgency If Russia Invades Ukraine

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US intelligence Claims Russia Is Planning A ‘False-Flag' Operation On His Own Troops To Justify A Ukraine Invasion

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Armand

Again no surprise on both counts. The USSR backed the North Koreans & VC/NVA. So payback is a 'Mutha" !

False Flag ops are another way to get things done. That is one of the many reasons why you have Spec Ops units. This is probably not the first time Putin has done something like this. Or at least thought about. I'm not saying this in a negative way … it is/could be a useful tool …

Not probably but definitely.. he started with blowing up families of his own officers to get needed "reason" to go to war against Ichkeria.

Indeed …

Ukraine Says Russia Has "Almost Completed" Its Build-Up Of Forces That Could Be Used For An Invasion

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Six Russian Landing Ships Sail Past Britain Heading To The Black Sea

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Canada Deploys Special Forces To Ukraine

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Armand

It was just a matter of time … But will Putin pull the trigger ? He is a predator; he can sense weakness from the USA's leadership and possibly NATO in general.

Yesterday Zelensky, Ukrainian president, made a video speech for his country. It is very interesting, and you can see traces of many things happening around the crisis in it.

In short – he doesn't beleive in war tomorrow, or anytime soon. He points to the hysteria and says, same as I was doing all the time, that there're talks about Russia seizing Ukraine ( and Baltic States, and Poland, and Sweden, you name it…) from 2014.
He condiders the hysteria to be the part of "pressure" on Ukraine to agree on certain things. Since most of these media is not in Russia, or Ukraine, you might think that he is not happy with what's happening in the West.
Might be he thinks that his country planned to be exchanged in the big game. He also of course points how great is Ukraine under him ( elections are coming, and he could not imprison Poroshenko, who got approvals of many western politicians).

One of Russian opposition newspapers published an interesting article, that lots ad lots of equipment is moved slowly and openly to the western part of Russia…without personnel, and everybody knows it. To me it says once again, that what we see is a poker game, one side threatens with military build up, another with "sanctions out of hell", the only (but very serious) problem I see there, if the sides will make no agreement at all, then it will be a huge bluff and image losses, so it can lead to some real problems.

Otherwise it might look so nice for the people –

-I've prevented the threat to my country ny showing the West who is the boss
- I've scared Putin to death with personal sanctions and he turned tail
It will work even if nobody was really planning any military action…

No matter what happens Europe will see Russia as the bully of the neighborhood. The mad dog neighbor of their nightmares from the cold war and occupation. What Russia fears the most will come to pass, more nations wanting to join NATO. Even if they don't officially join NATO I am willing to bet there will be a NATO presence in countries bordering Russia. We may even see a nuclear armed Ukraine. Europe might actually take its own defense seriously and honor their NATO obligations, stop depending on the USA it curses…

honor their NATO obligations, stop depending on the USA it curses…

We could only hope … But NATO still needs the USA's leadership. 'nuff said …

What bothers me is Europes complete disarmament after "the eternal peace" in the -90s.

How (most countries) in Europe removed their entire defense force and instead leeched of the US. Now when the clock is about to strike 12 they suddenly realize that war is brewing. But, now it is almost too late…

And not only have they dismantled their defense forces but they have removed their possibility to produce electricity and rely on Russia!

Look at Germany, no army to speak of and even refusing countries to help Ukraine by not allowing overflights or the sale of (originally German) weapons. Disgraceful.

Germany reminds me of some one who happily stands on their knees with their mouth open without any self respect at all.

It only takes a few years to dismantle an defense force but at least a decade to rebuild it.

Very true … NATO is a paper tiger at best. And Putin knows it.

However, "peace" talks continue between the USA & Putin. One is a "liberal amateur". The other is a predator …

'nuff said ..

On The Ukraine Front-lines

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Armand

There will be no war between Ukraine and Russia. Putin is not interested in some ukrainian soil. He tries to divide Europe.
That is what the chief of the german Navy said visiting India.
@soledad: you are talking complete nonsense. Just look up what western Europe NATO members spend comparing to Russia. You listen to much to alternative facts and lies from Fox news.
You are confusing gas and electricity, Germany gets a lot of gas fom Russia. If you trade with another country, you decrease the chance of War, that is how France and Germany overcome a long history of hate.
Right now the German government wants to restart the talks between Russia, France, Ukraine and Germany. It would be bad if they would sell weapons to one member of those talks during negotiations.

When has Europe ever been "United"?

I see a lot of attacks on FOX news is article in TMP. As if FOX is the equivalent of Pravda, or Goebbel's propaganda machine. I have not found that to be the case. I have found they report on much more than do the other supposed "news" channels and with more accuracy. Do they have an agenda? Sure, the only one with a conservative bent. But my God, do the others? Yes, and they don't hide it. The worst starts with a "C" and I won't even turn them on anymore ( and based on ratings, neither does anyone else). I try to get a perspective of different sources, network, web and radio, then make my observations based on who has been the most accurate over the long haul. When in Europe, I never saw Fox on any TV, in anywhere I stayed. Just CNN as far as US. So how can you make any judgments on Fox or their accuracy? Or is it all hear say?

35thOVI:
There is this thing called the internet.
FoX news supported Trumps claim that several NATO members do not spent enough money on defence. I certainly donīt consider Fox News accurate apart from their coverage of presidental elections.

@dogtail do you not find them accurate, or do you just disagree?

I do not feel most of Europe pays their fair share for NATO. But that is as much our politicians fault as anyone else's. I don't blame the Europeans for that. If I could pay less and use my money elsewhere, I would too. I am really not sure that NATO has not outlived its usefulness.

We are contending with an old and a new Super Power in the world, and the new one, is by far the biggest threat to everyone. The US, Russia, Europe, Japan, Australia and the rest of the World. I wish we could see it and put away our petty squabbles.

The US cannot afford to contend with both, economically or militarily.

IMO Putin had mostly clear sailing under the last POTUS. Remember Helsinki? No POTUS has ever acted like that, all the while alienating NATO Allies. Clear sailing forPutin, and by extension China and others, who could easily see Putin was the big dog re the US.

Nah, you've been reading the Washington Post again, haven't you? Putin has a tough time under the last POTUS who pressured NATO into spending up to its defense obligations, made the US a net energy exporter which impacted the Russian economy and provided a non-Russian source of natural gas which reduced Putin's influence, placed sanctions on Russia and on particular people for Putin's actions, expelled Russian diplomats, signed a new defense agreement with Poland, sold weapons to Ukraine to help them defend themselves, stalled the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and we unfortunately were involved in armed conflict with Russia when Syrian forces backed by several companies of "Russian mercenaries" attacked US forces in Syria and got stomped by arty and air power.

Too bad, too -- Trump's attempted overtures towards Russia to keep them from China's camp were crushed by the Russiagate allegations. I wonder how long Putin thinks Russia can keep China out of Siberia…

So Putin is extremely happy that Biden and team are now occupying the White House.

@35thOVI:
I actually do not consider Fox news a news agency, rather a tool to spread opinions, fear and lies. It has nothing in common with the public financed TV in Germany.

If you compare the military spending in 2020 of Russia 61,7 Billion $ to UK 59,2, Germany 52,8, France 52,7 and Italy 28,9, I donīt think there is any point to raise it to 2% of the GDP. It is necessary to invest heavily in security of IT, not so much in tanks or soldiers.
There are already plans to form a "European force", not only for the case Trump comes back.
The Navy Chief I refered to had to step down from his job saying the crimea is lost irretrievably to Russia, but he also said that Russia and Nato should work together to contain China. It is a nice idea, but Russia being such a trouble maker it is hard to put that into practice.

@SBminisguy
Trump wasnīt interested in politics outside of the US. He was interested in $$ and news coverage. And to get away from the §§