"Russia is preparing to INVADE Ukraine by the end of January" Topic

… after amassing more than 92,000 troops on the border, Kiev General warns

"Vladimir Putin's forces, including tanks, missile batteries and warships, have fanned out across the frontier: from Belarus to the north; the separatist-backed territory in the east; and on the banks of the Black Sea in the Crimean Peninsula…."

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4 Bns to invade directly to the Ukraine Capital?…

Armand

I thought they did that already.

I'm sure they must be mistaken, and that any Russians straying over the border will simply be lost "tourists" looking for a Winter "adventure" while on holiday.

No one to stop them so why not?

I am already at a loss to calculate how many times such an expected Russian invasion of Ukraine is :-)
The latter was, it seems, in the spring of 2021. By the way, this time the concentration of Russian troops is less than the spring one.

Or have the Ukrainians weakened, or the Russians have become cooler? :-)

Time will tell.

The did seize and illegally annex Crimea, and Russian sympathizers/guerrillas/troops are still in Eastern Ukraine, supported by Russia militarily, so………..

The current Ukrainian authorities have illegally seized all of Ukraine, forbidding most of the Ukrainian citizens to have the president they chose and the foreign policy that this president pursued.
And in order to receive external support in the midst of a severe crisis, it is beneficial for the current Ukrainian authorities to escalate the situation by fanning the Russian threat. And of course they have a desire to crush resistance to the rebels in the remaining uncontrolled territories.

The Putin supporters are out tonight ….

It is true that during last 4 years we had numerous "reliable sources" information that Russia was going to invade Ukraine, Baltic states, or even Poland.

I guess you have to be reminded why you need NATO after all.

Seriously, if I was at Putin place I would see no reason for invasion. The rift between Russia and Ukraine is big enough to have 20-30% of the population actively resisting any invasion of foreign forces, other 15-20% will join as a war with foreign agressor always consolidates the nation.

We're not getting anything from Ukraine apart of various liabilities and credits, Chinese already own a lot (say, a great deal of working factories in aeropower, military, and heavy industries, etc). Also. why invest in gas pipelines if they're under uncountable rounds of sanctions mainly bcs of Ukraine?
Maidan and Crimea antagonized relations between Russia and Ukraine, and I don't see us going into the country with significant % of hostile population. More pain than gain, ask your generals.

I agree with Barin, and it reminds me of a chat back in the 90s on a course with a German Colonel, who said that Hitlers biggest mistake was to conquer the Ukraine, not liberate it,

Tally Ho!

Impossible, until it was inevitable.

If it is real thing how come we all know about it. And Barin is correct about Ukrainian resistance, they would fight any invasion. It is not Ukrainian army from 2014. any more. Conflict would not bring benefit to Russia

If the Ukrainians want to avoid being invaded they have 2 sure fire ways to avert it.

1. Make sure that Moscow and the Balkans know that in case of invasion, target 1 will be the natural gas lines running thru Ukraine. No hard $ for Moscow. Cold winter for Southeast Europe.

2. Make sure the world knows that target 2 will be Chernobyl's containment structure.

Nuff said.

I like this guy!!
(HMS Exeter)

Preach it HMS Exeter. H

Gas transit through Ukraine was at minimum some time ago, a bit more nowadays, but when all Black Sea pipelines and North Stream-2 will be operational, Russia will no longer need Ukrainian transit, so they can do whatever they want with the pipe.South East Europe is not using gas, coming through Ukraine at the moment.
Even if they scrap it right now, Germany will be forced to speed up NS-2 certification and will still get contracted gas amount from Russia.
All US/Ukrainian/Polish attempts to prevent the start-up of NS-2 are about transit fees that both Ukraine and Poland want to keep, even that they're not buying Russian gas (officially).
There is also a fear (for Ukraine) that they might be hurt if Russia has other means to fullfill its gas contracts obligations. Ukraine is telling the world all the time that they're at war with Russia, but they want the agressor to fill their budget with transit fees, sell them coal and electricity, bcs otherwise they might freeze at winter.

Speaking of electricity….why bother destroying a contained reactor in Chernobyl when you have several NPPs with larger reactors which you can destroy ( or just leave to crumble)?

On the other hand, during active phase of Donbass conflict Ukrainian side was shelling two fertilizer plants with huge ammonia and chlorine storages, so I guess they don't really care about environmental consequences anyway.

Putin & Xi can say & do anything they want with little fear of US intervention. Save of harshly worded phone calls. But even that has little chance of occurring.

Again Predators can see/sense a pattern of weakness. Predators in this case i.e. Putin, Xi, Iran, etc., …

Thanks

Armand

backstab, suppose you will be happy when the supporters of one of the last presidents in the US take power by force? Of course – if they are supporters of who you sympathize with. Is that so? But, quite possibly, in the opposite situation, you will decide to confront the mutineers?
Isn't it a citizen's right to defend his rights and his legal choice?

What are you going on about Cuprum ? I'm Australian.. we have prime ministers, not presidents

It does not matter. What is important is that a person has the right to defend his rights and freedoms.

Tell that to Navalny.

Personally, I can't help but like Putin. He has a totally unfeigned manner. Sort of the polar opposite of Hillary.

He'd be a remarkable world leader if he could only get his butt out of the 1980s. He's making all the same old RealPolitik mistakes of foreign assassinations, irredentism and bluster. "My meesels are var moo'ur eccurett dan yoo'ers."

"Donbass is Russian because Russians live there." By that logic, I live in Russia as 1 in 5 in my zip code identify as recent immigrants from the motherland.

Xi can't change course. He's got bills coming due that he can't hope to cover. Putin can, and really should.

It is not that simple…

Northern Cyprus, populated (now) by Turkish cypriots, occupied by Turks, and even it is not Turkey, we now who is controlling it.

Grenada operation was started on a pretext that the life of american citizens was in danger.

Hundreds of thousands from Donbass received Russian passports, so even if not all of them are ethnical Russians, they are Russian citizens. Therefore, if their life is in danger, the state will have to react – even that Russia is not planning to include Eastern Ukraine as a province, or republic.
Ukraine undertands it very well, so even that they see military solution as the preferred option, they are not going to attack unless they have NATO and US behind.
The current ecomomical situation in Ukraine is quite bad, so we just need to keep status quo in the East and wait for next elections.
BTW, Zelensky is sending his political opponents to prison and fights opposition media as good as Putin, however I doubt that you've ever heard who is Medvedchuk, for instance.

On a side note, I think they could have found other ways to deal with Navalnyi problem. From what I got from his case, he was doing a typcial small scale corruption scheme which was widely used in Russia, but not all of the culprits are going to prison. He was on parole, and this parole had certain known conditions that he should noy be breaking.
I still don't inderstand why he decided to return – definitely not bcs he thought himself to be a local Che Gevara. A few minutes before plane landing he didn't beleive he would be arrested, there's a video of him talking in the plane.
We have a tough choice – communists, who are now as corrupt as our ruling party, liberal opposition that almost destroyed the country in 90s or Putin's men, who are doing more or less what the country should be doing in foreign policy but doing pretty bad in what is important for those living in Russia.

If you look at what Navalnyi was doing before his arrest, he was copying Yeltsin, concentrating on exposing corruption of the ruling party. It worked in 90s and it could work nowadays, as people hate being deceived again and again.
As corruption is an integral part of our current king's men, they are very unhappy and will try to make Navalnyi life miserable. I guess it is where the real threat to him is – his poularity wasn't this good even at polls, made by liberal media…

What is important is that a person has the right to defend his rights and freedoms.

Some in the USA don't get that … at any level.

As far as Putin vs. Xi. The PRC/CCP are a bigger threat to the West than Russia. But that does not negate Putin's Russia as a threat.

Every year it is about to happen.

Legion, I do not like Russia and China giving each other cover. Either one is big trouble for us and we have not found a way to stand up to them short of war, as far as I can tell.

As I have said before, our diplomatic skills have eroded to the point where we are not in the same league as Putin or Xi. The art of winning without war goes to the smartest, not just the toughest. They saw through all the recent nonsense and know we are hopelessly divided. It is not a president that makes us weak. It is our politics.

I do not like Russia and China giving each other cover.

Commie birds of a feather … It's happened before …

our diplomatic skills have eroded to the point where we are not in the same league as Putin or Xi.

We are the 2d team and both of them and others e.g. Iran, etc., know it …

The art of winning without war goes to the smartest, not just the toughest.

True but I like smart & tough. But those days seem to be gone/on hold(?).

They saw through all the recent nonsense and know we are hopelessly divided.

They saw/knew that before many here did.

It is not a president that makes us weak.

The POTUS is the CinC. The buck should stop there … he even said it.

It is our politics.

We elected these people or they were appointed. Few are really capable. Too many old "swampers" are still contaminating the marsh.

If the approval ratings are anywhere close to being true. And I believe they are. The tail is wagging the dog. Most Americans don't like what is going on. And every time those on charge talk to media … or us it's hard for me to believe much of what they say. And I'm not the only one …

Personally, I am indifferent to Navalny. I am more interested in another recent political prisoner – Platoshkin. But this is a socialist and in the West he is not interesting)))
I think that Navalny returned to Russia on purpose, knowing that he would be convicted. Apparently someone was hoping that this would serve to a sharp rise in his popularity. This hope was in vain – the troubles of the 90s, brought by people whose worldview Navalny broadcasts, are too fresh in the memory of the people.
There is no good political choice in Russia now (at least – among politicians of "big weight"). All are bad. Against this background, Putin looks like a more preferable option. The best among the worst.
Not for me, but for most.

The best among the worst.
Not for me, but for most.

That goes for a lot of things in the USA as well … comrade …

Do you know what the word "comrade" literally means in Russian?)))
The person with whom you have a common property or business)))

Glup! (smile)

Armand

FEEDING THE BEAR: A CLOSER LOOK AT RUSSIAN ARMY LOGISTICS AND THE FAIT ACCOMPLI

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Armand

I have been saying for a long time that the modern Russian army is not aimed at conducting large-scale offensive operations on foreign territory.
In addition, there are no objective reasons for attacking the Baltic states and, moreover, Poland. Russia has built new ports on the Baltic Sea and the main flow of cargo going from / to Russia is now being redirected to these ports. Ports are Russia's main need in the Baltic region. With the increase in the capacity of new Russian ports, the need for transit through the ports of the Baltic countries is sharply decreasing and will be minimized in the foreseeable future.
Russia no longer needs the Baltic countries.

An article about the new Russian Baltic ports (automatically translated):
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As for the unprepossessing Russian military logistics, it is more than enough to ensure the protection of the unrecognized Ukrainian republics from the invasion of the troops of the nationalist government.

The person with whom you have a common property or business)))

Did not know that … just use to it being used as military term. With the meaning of someone who is with you in a unit, serving with you, etc. Meanings of words change based on who is saying it, etc.

Thanks for the intel … Won't call you comrade then …

What's Behind The Russia-Ukraine War Fears -- And What Might Actually Happen?

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Armand

Legion 4 actually, I don't mind calling each other comrades. We have a common hobby – wargame)))

T-84U: The Tank Ukraine Would Use In A War With Russia

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Armand

I don't mind calling each other comrades. We have a common hobby – wargame)))

Sounds good to me ! We do have wargaming in common ! Comrade ! 👍👍

The Russian navy just deployed all their active nuclear subs from the Pacific base. The entire Russian navy boomer force is down to 1 Typhoon, 10 Deltas, and 5 Borei class. So how many subs do you think actually deployed and is this just normal operations? Even with our reduced attack sub force it looks like we have almost 2 subs to follow each boomer.

Does not look good …

Comrades in arms must be okay Legion.

All their active subs? I would not expect the whole force to be at sea or be ready for sea at the same time.

The approval numbers are not inspiring. Its a trend. Similar to the former guy, who had less than half the country behind him the entire term. At least there are no tweets. But I do not get why there is not more of a command presence on the PR front. You have to get ahead of these things in public. Well, I do get it. Ike, please come back to us!

Comrades in arms must be okay Legion.

I agree !

War Between Russia and Ukraine: A Basic Scenario?

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Armand

Was the Ukrainian General called Tchikyn Lytelski perchance?

We have no need for invasion now, as Ukrainian president told the world that there"s a planned coup tomorrow, organized by evil (i.e. not supporting him anymore) oligarchs.
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Since they're of course pro-Russian oligarchs, this might save us the trouble of moving 10000000000 troops into Ukraine.

The War Continues In Eastern Ukraine

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Armand

Plain and simple,no---Nato is looking for a reason to push east again.Russia will not invade ukraine unless they see Nato "friendship partner " deployments,then let slip the dogs of war.Russia wont lose a war over the historical kievan rus territory.

Nato is looking for a reason to push east

NATO is has downsized almost across the board. They are not that combat ready anymore, after A'stan, etc.

No need to push East the US, etc. train and wargame with one of the newer NATO members – Poland. The US/NATO are already on Putin's lawn …

And that is as far as it will go, at least anytime soon …

U.S. Says It Will Send Troops To Eastern Europe If Russia Invades Ukraine

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Armand

Where will those US/NATO(?) go … Poland ?