"Is A War Brewing In The South China Sea?" Topic

"Tensions in the South China Sea have been percolating for years now. Even in relatively calm times when the battling claimants of the contested waters manage to stay out of the headlines, the reality out on the sea is rarely tranquil. In fact, a recent report from the South China Morning Post has revealed that Chinese boats have been harassing Civilian vessels in the Malaysian and Vietnamese portions of the South China Sea "on a daily basis" for years.

Extending from Singapore and the Strait of Malacca in the southwest to the Strait of Taiwan in the northeast, the South China Sea is a geopolitical hotspot as one of the most important trade routes in the world, not to mention the home of valuable oil and gas reserves as well as lucrative fishing grounds. The United States Energy Information Agency (EIA) estimates that the South China Sea "contains approximately 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in proved and probable reserves."…"

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Armand

Except one little thing – none of those countries combined have sufficient military forces to make a dent in China's navy or airforce let alone defeat it.

Malaysia's military is in a state of decline. They have a measly 40 combat aircraft of which 8 are F/A-18s, 18 x Su-30 (only about 6 operational due to lack of spares) and rest is obsolete Hawk 208 light jets based on BAe Hawk jet trainer as used by Red Arrows. Navy's combat component is a couple of subs, 6 light frigates and 8 ancient FACs.

Vietnam has a potent sub force (6 x Kilo) but rest of navy is small and mainly ancient (6 modern Gepard light frigate puls a ton of 1970-80s Soviet garbage). Vietnamese Navy is in massive decline – down to about 80 fighters of which 46 are Su-27/30 and rest are ancient Su-22s.

Indonesia's military is largely dysfunctional and not necessarily operational. Air force has under 90 combat aircraft – 33 F-16s (older but upgraded to MLU), 16 Su-27/-30 and then 23 Hawk 200s (like Malaysia) and 14 T-50s (similar to Filipino jets).

Indonesia's navy has 4 subs (including new ones based on obsolete U209 design!), 7 frigates (5 are 1960s vintage), 10 heavy corvette/light frigate (3 are late 1970s vintage) and 14 ASW light corvettes (ex East German) as well as some FACS of various ages but often equipped with obsolete missiles or no missiles at all (essentially fast gunboats).

And number of ASW helos in service is dismal – only a couple of AS565s delivered were equipped for ASW.

Philippine Navy is 2 light frigates on order, a couple of ex-US coast guard cutters and a ton of WWII utility vessels. Air force is a measly 12 F/A-50 advanced trainers/light combat air craft.

Brunei has no conventional forces.

And all these disparate forces have no AWACS, limited airborne ASW, no long range air defence. Even minesweepers and minelayers are rare and often obsolete versions from 1960-70s without modern sensors.

A void appears, a power will fill it.

China rules the Pacific, no point in denying it, it will be more dangerous to resist. At least when Australia becomes subservient to China the problems of where to buy submarines will be sorted and the dangers of shark attacks will be a thing of the past!

Tally Ho!

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Armand

"China rules the Pacific….".

What???

They may rule their coastal waters, within a few hundred miles of their coastline, but they certainly do NOT rule the Pacific.

Heck, it's not even clear they can perform underway replenishment in anything but calm seas, and certainly don't seem to be able to conduct aircraft carrier operations in rough seas or at night, either.

Perhaps you are being rather cheeky, and sarcastic, since that IS the only thing that seems to make sense on the topic.

Given your commentary on where to buy Australia's subs, and the reduction in the dangers of shark attacks, that does seem to be what you were going for, I imagine.

THey got about 500 tankers sitting off the west coast of the US´s major ports… Question is, do they got scuds or duds?

Chinese coast guard vessels block, fire water cannons at Philippine ships bringing supplies to troops

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Armand

Nothing will happen until after the Olympics …

China Hypersonic Missile Engine Is ‘Based On A Design' Abandoned By NASA

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Armand

Wait … you mean they took/stole/found, etc., old NASA tech and are now using it ?

"I'm shocked !" "Shocked I tell you !"

Chinese Spies Have Penetrated Taiwan's Military

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Armand

I'd expect nothing less …

The PRC/CCP has student/etc., spies all over the US. Spying on Taiwan would be fairly easy for them…

Why Is China Setting Up Forests Of Antennas Across The South China Sea?

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Armand

They are trying to get HBO ?