"Should The U.S. Avoid War Against China At All Cost?" Topic

"Since last Friday, the People's Republic of China has launched a total of 155 warplanes – the most ever over four consecutive days – into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone; Ned Price said the state department was "very concerned". There have been more than 500 such flights through nine months this year, as opposed to 300 all of last year.

Before war comes to the Indo-Pacific and Washington faces pressure to fight a potentially existential war, American policymakers must face the cold, hard reality that fighting China over Taiwan risks an almost-certain military defeat – and gambles we won't stumble into a nuclear war…"
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Armand

If we don't support Taiwan, it proves to the world that our word is crap and we won't support our allies!

That'll do wonders for our credibility.

We won't support Taiwan. After A'stan, Iraq, Kurds, and more I'm forgetting I'm surprised anyone thinks we'll keep our word.

My prediction: The US gives PRC a "wink" (hotline maybe) that if they can invade fast enough we'll do a "Oh man that sucks!! But we can't get anything there fast enough to do anything to stop it so no point wasting precious American lives on a lost cause." Then will come from the back, "Hey you have a carrier and strike aircraft in theater!" and the Pres mouthpiece of the day turns over to a DoD person who says "As stated, we can't get there in time." No more questions and the roof empties, everyone satisfied.

US credibility is crap – given betrayal of the Kurds and Afghanistan.

The only country doing diplomacy worse than the US is China, which is managing to push the countries in its vicinity into an anti-China alliance.

There was a thread a while ago on places to be in the event of societal collapse. I suggest people read that thread and start making plans.

NO.

Yes, we should avoid a war with China.

We'd lose and just owe them more money.

Taiwan? They are screwed if they were counting on Uncle Sam to help them. US is such a trustworthy ally.

Avoid war? Yes, in general it's not something we should gleefully embrace.

Avoid it at all costs? No. That suggests enduring any harm or provocation, no matter how grievous, and I think there are enough examples throughout history to show that is not a path that leads to peace anyway.

What do we care if they take the Sudetentland???

So we will have peace in our time? No. NO. NO!!

Perhaps this will add to your understanding chinese beligerence at this point in time:

TMP link

"At all costs" is a dumb phrase, twice over.

First, let's say the PRC takes Alaska and Hawaii – still avoid war? That's what "all costs" means. Probably what we're discussing is something else, and we may each have a different idea in our heads of what we're actually talking about. We should clear up the real question.

Second, you never want to communicate that war is a "last resort" – that tells the enemy they can push you a long, long way without fearing your military. Military might is most effective when people think you might use it at the drop of a hat – then they'll be careful. If war is a last result you get hit with salami tactics, as the enemy takes everything you have tiny slice by tiny slice, each slice not worth going to war for.

More importantly, we all know enough history to know that you can win without fighting, you can win without matching your opponent's strength. The west should be resisting China cleverly, then it should never come to a shooting war. But the South China Sea is all but lost, Taiwan may be in peril and the PRC are staking claim to the *Arctic*, so it's really, really time to get serious about standing up to them.

Exactly. Avoiding war "at all costs" makes war more likely.

"At all costs" is a dumb phrase, twice over.

Glup!

Armand

I doubt "We" will ever have a choice, as the current administration will sell us all off for a nice comfortable profit!

Is China Bluffing On Taiwan?

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Armand

Bluffing doesn't seem to be the right word, more like testing or probing. The US has long been an inconsistent ally, and small nations only supported so long as it is convenient for US interests. Keep in mind that the US does not recognize Taiwan as a country.

Taiwan has decreased in usefulness as the US has sought increased economic ties with Beijing. Short sighted US business attempts to exploit China's labor market have backfired by priming Chinese economic growth and leaving the US heavily dependent on Chinese production. Interruptions in supply chains (see the recent COVID 19 related examples) have sent shockwaves through the US economy. The US absolutely cannot afford a military confrontation with China and they know that.

However, a military conflict doesn't benefit China either. Quite the opposite- the US is still the most advanced military power in the world. What China can do, however, is keep poking to show its strength, especially in regards to its sphere in the Pacific, further encouraging regional cooperation and pulling support from the US. It is highly likely such they are attempting such posturing in response to surges in numbers supporting Taiwanese independence and expecting the US to support them. The goal would be to showcase Chinese strength and lack of meaningful support by the US. Long term, this erodes support for separation and emboldens unification factions.

Whether it will work or not is debatable- Xi has done more sabre rattling but there are those in Shanghai who do not like how Hong Kong was handled and feel it has pushed Taiwan further away. It has also been pointed out that attention on Taiwan takes the focus away from some serious economic issues that have bubbled up that Xi isn't handling very well.

The comments talking about the current US administration capitulating seem woefully ignorant of US policy for the last 3 decades and that the Biden administration maintained Trump era tariffs on China and has largely continued the same strategy, much to the consternation of US allies. This perhaps shows a caving to political realities (fear that looking "soft" on China will hurt his party in upcoming elections) over more objective ones (sidelining the US with such a policy, ironically, may prove to strengthen China's global trade position).

If PRC invades Taiwan & the fighting goes on for a long while destroying infrastructure, the economic impact world wide will be huge. You think the semiconductor shortage is bad now, there will be a crippling shortage if the large Semiconductor factories are damaged. Lots of lost jobs all over the world. We need to prevent an invasion from ever happening. Manufacturing world wide will come to a halt

China needs external markets, and the US is by far the biggest one. It's actually a major piece of leverage for the US, but I don't think either the Trump or Biden Administrations have used it to good effect. You can see this in the trade imbalance.

over more objective ones (sidelining the US with such a policy, ironically, may prove to strengthen China's global trade position).

The Chinese Communist Party (Note: NOT the average Chinese citizen on the streets) is testing US resolve. The amount of Chinese investment money in the US acts as something of a deterrent – they know they'd lose it all if a shooting war broke out. How much of a deterrent, we just don't know?

China needs a distraction from it's implicitly in developing COVID and real estate crash. Japan, UK and USA are operating 2 CVs in the area trying to show some resolve.

The US should strike first and in overwhelming force before China can truly mobilize it's forces. It is clear any anti-China policy or deterrent at play now is not working. The US is massively outnumbered in nearly every way on paper and in the reality, conservative, we are very close to being at least overtaken.

Let's face it: the US is in the same position Japan was just prior to WWII. We either strike now and win or face the fact we are steadily going to lose. Japan blew their chance in not hitting the carriers. The US will miss its chance if not taken in the next 15 years because China will turn the world steadily against the US leadership.

The longer the US waits, the situation will put the US further on the back foot. China is certainly already formatting firststrike scenarios as perhaps being the only way to win the looming conflict. We are the only roadblock remaining to their control.

The US needs to recognize that the playing field has turned and there is zero chance of China backing down from their pursuit.

It would take a leader who understands that this would be hugely unpopular in the short term and likely crash the US economy and, likely the world, but in the long-run would mean the potential would exist for the US to again be in the driver seat in the Pacific and a chance to reset the disastrous route Asia has fallen into. To not strike soon means China will hook in Asia, Africa, and South America beneath its economic dominance. They already own most of west Africa, Central America, and South America via dummy fronts and investments. They have played the US game, but better and are not satisfied with their own region.

Arrest their megalomania now or face the very real fact you will become a second place nation with no chance to balance it later.

Thanks!

Armand

The US should strike first and in overwhelming force before China can truly mobilize it's forces.

Oh, how nice. Another war, undeclared by Congress, that has the potential to inflict millions of civilian American casualties.

When my Dad and I used to argue about world affairs, I would say, "Dad, it's a good thing neither one of us is making that decision." We would laugh and get a beer.

Er…we could try to outsmart them. That's what they have been doing to us.

I don't think they want a shooting war. It would expose what I think is an inferior military and risk their extensive assets in the US as they face their own economic issues.

No to "at all costs", a condition that makes no sense to me.

Tortorella +1

Just like in Korea, with the massive PRC/CCP intervention. then the "fear" of that happening again during Vietnam. Does the US, etc. want to risk a US-Sino War ? Possible WWIII ?

The question is. Should China avoid a war with the United States at all costs?

Good point … but only the Xi/PRC/CCP knows for sure …

Heritage Foundation Releases Its 2022 Index Of U.S. Military Strength

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The report is here ….

2022 Index Of U.S. Military Strength (Heritage Foundation).

heritage.org/military

Armand

Is The U.S. Equipped To Resupply Forces In A Great-Power Conflict?

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Armand

You can't even rely on a "special relationship" getting a trade deal now.

If the us govt wants to dissuade China from invading Taiwan.
That'd go something like "cross that red line there and we…." Whack you with this stick.
What would the stick look like?

IMO at this point, with the USA being seen as weak, incompetent, etc. There is nothing we can really do. And by the time this changes in the USA to a more powerful position, etc., if ever, it will be too late.

The Flawed Tzu of ATP 7-100_3 Chinese Tactics

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Armand