"China Warns The U.S. Over Taiwan" Topic

"The US State Department issued a statement on Sunday, saying the PLA was conducting intensive training exercises over Taiwan island's self-proclaimed southwest air defense identification zone in the past few days. The statement accused the PLA of carrying out "provocative military activities" that "undermines regional peace and stability", adding "the US commitment to Taiwan is rock solid." The Taiwan foreign affairs department immediately expressed gratitude to the Biden administration.

During the National Day holiday, the number of the PLA fighter jets and other military planes set a record high in their sorties over the Taiwan Straits. On Monday, before the publication of this article, Taiwan media outlets reported that the number of the PLA sorties reached 18 on Monday…"
Main page
link

Armand

Don't you mean the opposite?

Actually, there were more than 50+ Chinese sorties around Taiwan on Monday, in reaction to the US statement, and the anniversary.

Apparently, there have been more than 800 sorties flown by the Chinese in the last year around Taiwan, and more than 100 in just the last 3 – 4 days.

A Fox News military consultant (Keen?) said that China now has the vessels available to conduct a naval invasion of Taiwan, if desired, e.g. both military and non-military, commercial craft. The US and the British have also used non-military vessels to conduct their amphibious landings and naval transport, when needed.

I guess anything to distract from the fact that they can't keep the lights on in half their country

A Fox News military consultant (Keen?)

Yes, Gen Jack Keen IIRC. He was a 4 star and really knows what is occurring in the current situation.

I guess anything to distract from the fact that they can't keep the lights on in half their country

Yep, but they have been able to bury that nuclear reactor accident pretty thoroughly with the help of global media pals…

(smile)

Armand

The Chicoms are really pushing the envelope with their constant flights. They know nothing will be done. Predators can sense weakness … 'nuff said.

Taiwan's defense minister warns that China is on track for an invasion by 2025

link

Armand

If not sooner … the PRC/CCP needs to take advantage of the USA's current weak leadership, etc.

Taiwan Air Force Releases Defiant Video After Chinese Incursions

link

link

Armand

U.S. Army Deploying Iron Dome Missile Defense System To Guam

YouTube link

link

Armand

Iron Dome … sounds like a good move. Good to see we are using the Iron Dome system we helped the IDF make into a very effective weapons system. Maybe get some for Taiwan ? They/we/etc. have to remember the PRC/CCP supported the Norks, then the VC/NVA. Payback is a Mutha' Uncle Xi … 👵

(smile)

Armand

Does Taiwan Need Nuclear Weapons To Deter China?

link

Armand

China Says It Will Have 'No Choice' But To Take It To The Battlefield' If Taiwan 'Continues Provocative Acts'

link

Chinese Military Posts Video Of Troops Practicing Beach Landings And Building Beachheads As Tensions Continue To Rise With Taiwan (VIDEO)

link

China is really upping its threats against Taiwan. I do not see how they can drawback without losing face….

Armand

Tango, I agree with your conclusion about saving face. At some point there is no backing out.

China is really upping its threats against Taiwan. I do not see how they can drawback without losing face….

Yes and sooner or later … they could turn saber rattling into an actual attack. And really there is nothing anyone can do to prevent it without risking a bigger war.

E.g. like what happened in Korea and what was a fear of what could happen in Vietnam.

Xi holds all the cards … And the USA was dealt a bad hand recently … 🃏

Thanks my good friend…

Armand

Xi holds all the cards … And the USA was dealt a bad hand recent

You realise the Chinese have been holding all the cards for a couple of decades now? The US ignored the SC Sea issue for decades and the deliberately vague stance on Taiwan has any hindered any US defence of the island since 1979.

Indeed Taiwan couldn't get F-16s or other advanced fighters from the US in the 1980s and instead had to rely on F-5A/Es as well as ancient F-104s and F-100s. Even in the 1970s the US did not want to sell Taiwan F-4s, F-16s and F-18s.

Here's an article from 1978 whereby the US refused to sell anything more than upgraded F-5s to Taiwan (and even that fell through because the US did not support the F-5G (F-20) and it was cancelled).

link

Which War Is Beijing Preparing To Fight?

link

Armand

You realise the Chinese have been holding all the cards for a couple of decades now?

Yes … old news …

The USA is going to get Vietnam to make toys for Christmas. Frakk Uncle Xi !!!!

What If China Invades Taiwan? U.S. Response And Economic Consequences (Video)

YouTube link

China Has Upgraded Three Military Bases Facing Taiwan

link

Armand

Chinese Navy Practices Cross-Sea Troop Transport With Large Civilian Ferries

link

Armand

A couple of videos with different perspectives:

1) China doesn't quite have all the cards – I thought the point on how China has invested for growth to be particularly insightful.

YouTube link

2) John Mearsheimer – of offensive realism fame – with his take on rivalry between the US and China. Here I thought his point that the US will work to undermine other nations that seek regional hegemony. (The talk is from Aug 2019.)

YouTube link

Another interesting point – can't remember if it's in the above videos or something I read elsewhere…."China's recent foreign policy has failed and can be descried as 'how to make enemies and alienate friends'. Probably mentioned in the first video.

I only offer these as interesting perspectives – disagreement is expected.

Cheers

China's recent foreign policy has failed and can be descried as 'how to make enemies and alienate friends'.

Agreed though I don't think China ever had any friends save Pol Pot.

Even the Albanians broke up with them in 1978. Their relationship with the Norks is also tumultuous as the Norks play them off against Russia/USSR or pursue their own agendas that hinder Chinese objectives. Even Pakistan gladly plays ball with the Americans at the expense of China.

What they have are self interested other parties who seek to enrich themselves off the Chinese but will jump ship given half the chance.

To be fair the same applies to the Chinese Nationalists pre-1949 – even the US was not really an ally. Chiang Kai-Shek chummed it up with the Nazis, the Soviets, the west and anyone else who'd listen.

In any case China might end up being the regional hegemon but unlike USA and even USSR post 1945 it will have no natural allies or any countries that it can rely on.

Even a democratic peace loving liberal China would still not be trusted in the region just like Japan is not trusted in the region. Big neighbours always worry small countries.

Here I thought his point that the US will work to undermine other nations that seek regional hegemony.

No doubt. However the US has other issues that hinder such strategies:

1. Lack of focus. US foreign policy flutters around – Russia, Middle East, Asia, rinse, repeat.

2. Politicised foreign policy that is dependent on who is in power (eg attitude to Iran in recent years).

3. Lack of strategic foresight (Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq etc).

4. Old fashioned concepts of power that are primarily based on military and government unlike Chinese who practice hegemonisation via more subtle means such as Chinese affiliated companies and business people, buying political influence and direct investment.

I am starting to think at some stage Xi will do something stupid and invade Taiwan especially if current real estate crisis escalates.

I have no idea what the US response will be given current and previous 4 US administrations have been rather wishy-washy on issue of Taiwan or Chinese expansion in SC Sea.

I have no idea what the US response will be given current and previous 4 US administrations have been rather wishy-washy on issue of Taiwan or Chinese expansion in SC Sea.

Little to nothing … they have other priorities … It's if one says anything negative about China, they are labelled "xenophobic", racist, white supremacists, etc.

We appear to be more visible there. Maybe Kean and Fox can tell us how bad off we are and give us the OOBs. Unless maybe its all kind of hush hush.

i think its not just 20 years of weak leadership on our part. It's a big factor, but as I keep saying, all China has to do is watch us collapse from within. They will simply test us and keep us misinformed while we beat each other over the heads with our very own crazy political BS. Our politics have made us too weak to unite.

Watching FOX now … always do. I'll let you know if I hear anything …🤫

Some ideas which includes a degree of speculation…

1) The American and Chinese approach to 'empire building' is more through the influence of economics, diplomacy, military power project and even culture rather than the formal occupation of territory. Although there's been a degree of occupation it's far less than say 19th century European colonial empires. So, it will be 'interesting' (in the Confucian sense) to see how the confrontation has played out.

2) The US is a competitive / assertive / aggressive (take your pick) culture. The strength of this competition is that the US has powerful creative-destructive mechanisms that drive its economic innovation – the culture rewards 'winners' big time. Even those who are not 'winners' will defend the system because someday they might be a 'winner'. So…following on John Mearsheimer's theory of offensive realism, the US does best when it has a peer competitor. This is the most speculative part – I wonder if the collapse of the Soviet Union and hence the lack of a competitor has been at the root of lack of strategic focus, in-fighting, etc. It used to be there, as Mearsheimer has said, "no daylight between the foreign polices of the Republicans and Democrats". That's been true – at least until the last 20-30 years. So the question is, with the rise of a peer competitor, China, will the American political parties once again move into agreement on foreign policy. Note – the repudiation of the US recent foreign policy in elections probably has more to do with the recent 'mucking about' than historical agreement. When there's a big external threat it's easier for people to agree. Take away the external threat then they'll fight each other – as anyone who interferes in a family fight may quickly find out.

Just musing…

Even those who are not 'winners' will defend the system because someday they might be a 'winner'.

This perversion of rational thought is becoming pervasive in Australia. Poor people vote for governments that openly support the rich and hurt the poor because they hope one day to be rich despite the fact that what enables the rich (eg labour deregulation) hurts the poor.

They call them "aspirational voters."

In America it's truly perverse – some people prefer to have poor access to health care on grounds that this is freedom and not socialism, big government.

One of my favourite satirical articles is this one:

link

My favourite line is this one:

"This is what real freedom feels like," wheezed Brad, before being told by doctors that his insurance had denied his latest claim. "Imagine being forced to pay a small amount of your income each year to get free healthcare, instead of paying a large amount of your income each year and ending up having to pay your hospital costs anyway when your insurance company turns down your claim. God I love freedom."

In the long run this relates to the future of the west – increasing inequality and declining access to services hurts the west in the long run.

So…following on John Mearsheimer's theory of offensive realism, the US does best when it has a peer competitor. This is the most speculative part – I wonder if the collapse of the Soviet Union and hence the lack of a competitor has been at the root of lack of strategic focus, in-fighting, etc.

I would agree with that assessment.

I don't think China will refocus the US. This is due to America's rise stopping in 1960s. This rise starts in 1776 and continued all the way up to the mid-1960s.

Since then US has been in slow decline due to neoliberalism (eg empowering Asian economies at the expense of American industry), growing inequality, inertia and conversion from investment culture to consumer culture.

The other issue is that Chinese power complicates things a lot more than simple American definitions of "good" and "evil" do. China is a core component of the global economy, whereas USSR is not.

The US has so far proven unable to tackle Chinese ascendancy in any meaningful manner. The Chinese play a deep long game with a lot of redundancy and subtlety.

It's why the American elites like Russia as an enemy – Russia is economically irrelevant to the USA so the Americans can ramp up as much as they want here.

Like USA, Russia also does things more overtly so its easier to point out "bad" behaviour.

In essence Russia and USA are both archetypal bulls in china shops. The Chinese are largely like ghosts and shadows.

Thanks

Armand

Interesting read …by Mearsheimer in 2014

link

A ‘new' – for 2014 – concluding chapter to The Tragedy of the Great Power Politics.

As for the subtly of Chinese diplomacy – hmmm, their subtle hostage diplomacy makes the US and the Soviet Union look rather quaint.

There has been nothing subtle about the weekly lectures on appropriate behaviour and warnings we've been getting from the Chinese ambassador. OMG!

Good article.

Arguably great powers cannot rise peacefully. Note that for all their economic might the pacifist and effectively neutral Germans and Japanese play little or no role in international affairs.

Their influence is limited and their military defence but also political leadership ad diplomatic influence is outsourced to the USA for most key matters pertaining to defence and posture.

I would argue a great power has to be able and willing to wield global influence.

Thus Russia despite the size of its economy, is a great power.

Also with regards to the articles premise of the US dismantling other wannabe hegemons, that is true. However unlike Germany in WWI/WWII, Japan in WWII and USSR, the Chinese cannot be totally defeated through conflict (MAD*) or even through the arms/propaganda race of Cold War.

The Chinese model is spread with bags of cash, infrastructure, Communist affiliated business people, community programs and other investment, immigrants, construction crews, dredges, and the odd coast guard or paramilitary fishermen.

An M1 Abrams or B-21 bomber or Virginia class sub is of little use against such tactics.

The Chinese also have another advantage – the US obsession with Russia which diverts a lot of attention and energy from Asia-Pacific.

*I suspect if the US launched a first strike on China right now, the far smaller Chinese arsenal would be unable to retaliate with sufficient force to destroy the USA and the US would win the war (albeit with casualties). The Chinese understand this and are investing massively in their nuclear arsenal.

Taiwan Vows to 'Defend Itself' Amid U.S. Reversal

link

link

President Biden Says United States Would Come To Taiwan's Defense If China Attacks

link

Armand

Ah … I think others in the admin said that won't happen. In reality, the PRC/CCP doesn't really care what the USA says or does, at this point.

Recent Taiwan War Games Revealed Few Good Options For U.S. To Deter China

link

Chinese State Media Believes That If War Breaks-Out, Taiwan Will Quickly Surrender

link

Can The US Defend Itself Against A Chinese Missile Attack?

link

Taiwan-Controlled Kinmen Island Is Only 3 Km From China's Coast

link

Armand

As I recall, we have never pledged to defend Taiwan, going back to the Reagan years.

Yes … but … if I say more I'll be DH'd …

China Is Building Missile Targets Shaped Like A U.S. Aircraft Carrier And A Destroyers In The Taklamakan Desert

link

link

Armand

As I recall, we have never pledged to defend Taiwan, going back to the Reagan years.

Correct – when the US and China normalised relations in 1970s, the US basically stepped back from Republic of China's (Taiwan's) defence.

US does not recognise Taiwan and has no formal defence alliance.

Literally this legal status gives the US a massive get out of gaol free card whilst also giving the Chinese the ability to wage war on Taiwan and frame it as an "internal/domestic" issue.

US risks ‘Suez moment' in a Taiwan war

link

Armand