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"Uppsala database on conflict fatalities" Topic


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shadoe0112 Sep 2021 1:05 p.m. PST

Interesting database from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Department of Peace and Conflict Research:

ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia

Here's Afghanistan

ucdp.uu.se/country/700

Deleted by Moderator

I have to say that seeing that data changes my perception of where things started to go wrong.

The SIGAR reports rightly criticize the measures of 'progress' used in Afghanistan. Somewhere I read related to Vietnam, that the measure of 'progress' was the number of civilian casualties. Fair enough, 'security' is a function of good government. The chart shows overall deaths in Afghanistan low from 2002-2006 from where it starts to steadily increase to the most recent statistics. So rather than paint the whole campaign with the broad brush of 'failure', perhaps the question is what happened in 2006-07?

shadoe0113 Sep 2021 6:20 a.m. PST

Hmmm…a comment snipped. I can't even remember what it was. I think something about things changing in 2006 which wasn't a comment on any US administration. What happened was that the Taliban had re-grouped in a safe haven and initiated the insurgency which ended this year. How to have prevented the Taliban re-grouping and, if that failed, how to have contained the insurgency or some other option are different questions. The point is the graph shows distinct phases an early phase (2001) when the Taliban government was toppled, a relatively quiet phase (2002-05) with the Taliban dispersed (but re-grouping), and the Taliban insurgency (2005-21). I was aware at the time of this but had not expected the graph of fatalities to show it as clearly as it does.

Some papers from the Cornwallis Group conferences where these types of things were discussed people have been trying to come up with good solutions to difficult problems:

PDF link

PDF link

PDF link

PDF link

PDF link

PDF link

PDF link

PDF link

And a whole one-week session on Afghanistan from different perspectives:

link

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