"latest from a Brit source" Topic

Doc,
Yes, doc, because there were only 4,000 – 6000 non-military were there to begin with!

I, too, will gladly wait on history's judgement. In many cases, it is much different than the ravings of the moment, when events are still unfolding.

I will not be asking anyone to nuke it.🥸

"I will not be asking anyone to nuke it." :D

"Here's what I think we learned from the trip. First, there is no way that all authorized Americans are getting out of Kabul. There is a de facto hostage situation of Biden's making just waiting to happen. Second, the White House is spooked by the idea that they could lose control of the messaging. Third, there seems to be a break in the chain of command between those trying to get stuff down on the ground and their higher headquarters. Congressmen just don't get manifested onto USAF aircraft, and no one in the Pentagon hears about it. They don't walk around your area of operation for a day, asking questions and interacting with people, and someone not notify their headquarters. That speaks volumes for the contempt with which the people directing this operation are viewed."

No, Doc, we will not be learning that, despite your fever dreams based on an unidentified source. (Meijer?)The military will always defer to certified congressmen, and accept their trip as warranted. However, you can be sure that phone calls and texts were flying as these guys were wafting West to Kabul. It probably took several hours to reach civilian congressional leadership.

They didn't stay long did they? I'm sure the military was told to get these two showboats ( and, I'm pretty sure, their videographer) back on the next plane to DC.

Seth Moulton will have a rough meeting upon his return with Speaker Pelosi and have to sit on pillows for a week. Rep. Meijer probably nothing until McCarthy finds out he went to Afghanistan. Then nothing.

link

Just after 7 PM Eastern time Wednesday, the US State Department issued a warning advising US citizens in Afghanistan to avoid traveling to the Kabul airport, to avoid the airport gates unless they are told to go there, and for any US citizens at the Abbey Gate, East Gate, or North Gate to leave immediately.

Do the wish to comment on THIS? Still think we are going to get everybody out?

Weak straw man, I didn't see anyone on this thread say we would get everybody out. I see many including myself that say it is doubtful.

Warning issued due to threat of terror attack on the airport. Who knows when operations will resume. U.S. military doing the best job they can with such a screwed up situation.

We'll see won't we? I have seen reports that special forces units were helicoptering out into the countryside for unspecified missions. It could be easier to get to the US and allied people away from the airport and the crush of people there.

I don't know Doc, an everybody standard is pretty high, but I dont think there will be many left, if any. It may take a few days to get a fixed number. If there are a few, I'm not sure if you or Arealdeadone will rail the loudest. You, because we couldn't get them, or Areal, because we did!

Once the doors close on this episode, it will fade into the same mist as Viet Nam, and Iraq. Every 20 years seems like the modern cycle for people forgetting how misguided these nation building crusades are and how they almost always end. Speaking of Crusades and bad endings, maybe the fall of Jerusalem to Saladin in 1187 was an early example of this phenomenon.

Actually I agree about nation building, maybe it is an impossible task, although the US military and State don't seem to be able to carry it off very well.

As to fading into the mist, like VietNam? We paid a huge price for that defeat, at home and around the world. This is worse and the price will be even higher.

Went back through the thread and I was wrong. There are 2 people who think we will get everyone out. See how easy it is to admit when you are wrong? :D

…Congressmen just don't get manifested onto USAF aircraft, and no one in the Pentagon hears about it…

They did not fly there on a military flight.

I'm sure the military was told to get these two showboats ( and, I'm pretty sure, their videographer) back on the next plane to DC.

They were rushed out on a military flight, but waited for one with empty seats. They are now in Dohar (sp?).

No, doc, the price is not worse in Americans killed, monies spent, or impact on America. Viet Nam still holds those records. Iraq was worse in many ways. Make your case, if you can, but I think you'd better just dial that back.

Ok. DC via Doha ( Qatar).

If they flew there non-military, then it's easy to see how no one would know they are there ,and the locals would take a bit to find out what the heck was going on. A planned photo op/ campaign ad.

Eric Prince, Blackwater "contractor", is charging $6,500 USD/per seat to fly people out.
Bless his heart.

A true humanitarian.

Contractors were there for one reason only – to make money. He is just staying true to his slimy nature.

Bob, you misunderstand. The price of the defeat to the nation will be as high or higher from this failure. Not about body count or $$ spent. It is about the consequences of defeat on trust and confidence, at home and abroad. It is what will come now, not what has already been expended.

We are now more likely either to lose Taiwan — Biden will not defend it — or to find ourselves in a real shooting war with China. For which our military is not prepared.

You think our enemies are incapable of seeing weakness and coordinating to exploit it?

Consequences: link

"But if [terror attacks] start to happen again and we start to think, well, how do we go out again and try and stop these cells that are spreading international terror? How can we do it with the Americans? How can we do it with an ally that is treating us with contempt and betrayed us and into the bargain, many of our own citizens?" Farage said on "Fox & Friends First" on Wednesday.

"Certainly, if it's a Biden or Harris administration, honestly, there is no way, there is no way a British parliament right now would vote for military cooperation with America led by this administration," he continued. "And that's a very sad thing to say, because since 1917, the UK and America have been side by side in virtually every major conflict. We've been the closest allies in terms of military action, in terms of intelligence sharing, in terms of culture, in terms of business."

"You couldn't have a better ally in the world," he added. "And right at the moment, I'm sorry, but there's no way we could enter into another operation with you."

Doc,
That is really subjective. Any facts to back up this idea? Afghanistan, offers little to justify the expense in lives or treasure. It has been a failing endeavor for over a decade. I would posit it takes more courage to leave than to stay.

On the contrary, the six countries that border Afghanistan, the – Stans Pakistan, China, and Iran cannot see this as a good thing, as it places an unstable and antagonistic country controlled by religious extremists on their border. They will have added concerns and burdens because of it.

The Chinese have no capacity at naval amphibious attacks at a scale Taiwan will require, and a naval blockade would be almost impossible for them to maintain. They will certainly keep up political/ diplomatic/ and economic pressure, but have shown no interest in a shooting war.

Your analysis of foreign affairs is badly affected by your exaggerated views of political matters.

Quoting Farage is a bad joke. No one takes that idiot seriously-even in the UK, let alone elsewhere.

Using Fox and Friends as a source on foreign affairs is pretty close to using a comic book as a reference in a doctorate thesis.

Look , Doc, I'm the one with the most exposure in this argument. Some Isis kook can take a rocket shot at a departing jet and make this pretty bloody. I am counting on the skill of the US troops and pilots, various unknown subrosa steps being taken to insure that can't happen, and the fact the Taliban really want us out of there and do not want any events to delay that. They also hate the Isis competitors that offer the best chance of that happening.

Barring some extreme event this airlift will be largely successful in removing American and allied troops, civilians and the most vulnerable Afghanis. There will be few Americans mourning our withdrawal.

As of this AM 85,000 people have been withdrawn. Roughly 4500 US citizens. 5 days to go. We'll see.

Piquey, as usual, you are wrong on so many things, just like when you said the last guy before the new guy, would not be elected President.

"They took two seats on the return flight that could have gone to people who needed them".

As correctly pointed out, there have been a lot of flights out with few, or almost no people on them, and many with lots of room left over, so the visiting politicians did NOT take anyone's place.

China does have some new amphibious vessels, and a very large, quasi-military "fishing fleet" which could be used to land tens of thousands of troops on Taiwan (or the Senkakus, or Okinawa) if desired by them, in a reverse Dunkirk type operation.

Hell, they even have swimming tanks, unlike our current US Marines (haven't had those since WWII, sadly).

Also, the Chinese could easily blockade Taiwan, given their close proximity to it. The USA, Japan, and any allies that might try to intercede to break a naval blockade would be in dire peril, so most likely they wouldn't even try.

The Chinese outnumber us and our allies in vessels, and they've shown they are not unwilling to conduct ramming attacks. A few of those, and many of our warships would be out of service. No doubt they would use their quasi-military "fishing fleet" to conduct many ramming events using swarming tactics, and they might even press their "Coast Guard" into those ops, in order to try to make it look like their opponents are the aggressors.

An air blockade by China would be harder for them to enforce, since their air force is weaker than their navy, relative to possible enemy combatants. Of course, Taiwan is quite far from many air bases that could support them, so that is problematical too.

Ah, thresher, you are right, I was wrong on that issue. It seems odd that you have to reach back 5 years for an example of my miscall. Apparently you weren't even on TMP at that time. It must be very rewarding to never be wrong. Do tell us how you manage that?

Whether the flight was full or empty, there's no denying that they took up two seats for no good reason other than publicity and campaign fodder. Their flight there was unofficial and unapproved.

As for the naval issue,the US has 2 1/2 the tonnage of the Chinese navy. That means the Chinese navy number is made up of many smaller ships. Their aircraft carrier capability is still well behind ours. In fact, there is much discussion about their true capability over all.

No question their advantages of proximity to the China sea, but just like the French vs the British in the Napoleonic Wars, the edge in seamanship and projecting sea power is still with us. It is good to note that, other than being aggressive against our smaller escort vessels, the Chinese have generally sought gains from diplomatic bribes and threats rather than direct military confrontation.

As for a Taiwan naval invasion, they seem to be aware that it would mean serious losses and no guaranteed good outcome. The Chinese seem to fancy indirect means to project power in the China Sea by building islands, etc. not outright military force. Their strategy seems more to outwait us not attack us.

I didn't know swimming tanks were such a necessary thing in war these days. Or, other than in limited ways, tanks of any sort.

I believe the US still keeps up a Taiwan Straits patrol, which serves as a tripwire if it were attacked. As the Germans discovered in 1939 attacking an island nation across a narrow strait is not the best idea or an easy task.

Legion, you give great weight to the abandonment of Bagram, but one thing it did do was shrink the defense perimeter since it's always easier to defend a smaller perimeter. Not much was lost since Kabul is much easier to defend and much closer to the bulk of remaining Americans since it was the seat of government.

Really ? It's easier to defend a smaller perimeter !? Who knew ?!? <hyperbole>

Most trained in the the art and science of warfare believe as I do. It was a mistake to abandon Bagram. But everybody is entitled to an opinion. So don't let me stop anyone from expressing that …

Helicopters are used to transport from the embassy to the airport. The same would be used to get to Bagram. And in Bagram we had strike assets to support the withdrawal. Bagram was a well defend safe location in a sea of terrorists. Both the Kabul Airport and Bagram should have been active to make this withdrawal faster & easier. And it makes two airhead harder to attack than one. Especially Bagram as it is fortified …

If more troops were needed to make this happen … well that has happened anyway at Kabul. The mission is to evac our "people". If more troops are needed to do that, that is a tactical and operational decision to be made by the Military NOT by those in DC. AFAIK/IIRC the WH put a ceiling on the number of troops that can be used in the evac of A'stan. Don't tell the Cdrs how to do their jobs that they are trained for, etc.

WE saw what happened in Vietnam when the WH told the US military what ordinance should be put on our aircraft for strikes. Etc., etc., etc.

Or when the WH told the US ground commander in Mogadishu that he didn't need our tanks and IFVs, etc. that he requested. As a former Mech Inf Co Cdr. I saw exactly how I would have used Tanks & IFVs with FA/Mortar support + gunships to get our troops out. However CD would of had to be secondary …

Regardless … suggest some should study the following :

Dunkirk 1940

DBP 1954

Kahn Sohn 1968

Saigon 1975

Mogadishu 1993

Having graduated from US ARMY INF Ofcs' Basic & Adv Courses, CAS3, USMC/USN BAT, USAF Air/Ground ops school, etc., etc. Having commanded/ran all forms of Infantry, Air Assault, Tank-Infantry TF, ops, etc., etc. I have a pretty good idea of how to do a variety of missions. And have …

As I have said before, in training we would be given "ops"/missions, etc. To come up with the proper "solution(s)". IF this evac ops was done as it is now. We'd have failed the exercise.

Again: Top 3 incorrect tactical & operational decisions –

#1 Repeatedly Ignoring Intel that the Taliban are on a general offensive. As most of the ANA/ANP are not successfully defending against this offensive.

#2 Closing Bagram

#3 Withdrawing Troops before civilians

I have seen reports that special forces units were helicoptering out into the countryside for unspecified missions. It could be easier to get to the US and allied people away from the airport and the crush of people there.

I have heard about those ops as well. And there may have been more ?

There are also other NGOs with Vets, etc., pulling out our people on their own… As I have said many times before … we really don't know totally what is going on. Which is may be a good thing for OPSEC, etc.

Predators, e.g. the Taliban/AQ, ISIS, etc., can sense weakness. Which the US elected & appointed leadership has demonstrated almost since DAY 1. We have become the hunted not the hunters … What is going on it A'stan is making that clear. The PRC/CCP, Russia, Iran, North Korea, jihadi/terrorists everywhere, etc., see this lack of leadership, etc. They are celebrating …

While once again the troops on the ground are put into a very bad situation. However, again as always they are doing their jobs. It appears now we have taken 3 USMC WIAs … this may be a coordinated attack. With more to come …

ISIS has just exploded two bombs at gates.

Yes I have heard similar but information is limited and not always accurate. Regardless … US troops are getting hit … again …

Yes, and there were casualties. Suicide bomber. Hence the call to clear the gates of people prior to this attack. Unclear as to extent.

I suspect the Taliban are after the Isis agents right now. It is in their interest, at least until the 31st to project control and calm.

Anticipated on our part and should accelerate our evacuation. Much still to know.

I have been watching the news almost constantly … It was also a mistake with the WH saying we will be all out by the 31st. The Taliban are holding us to that. That is their "red line". So again the errors of this leadership continues to be made clear.

But yes, we still don't have a complete picture as of yet.

Did it ever occur to you Legion that adhering to the 31st bought us some more time with the Taliban not being actively fighting against us?

It appears 4 marines were killed in the Isis attack.

Up to ten now.

What we Should do is recapture the airport, sending in a brigade. What we will do is slink away.

Doc, I haven't read anywhere where we lost the airport. All reports so far are it was outside the gates. I think the idea is to get out of there with as few casualties as possible. I'm sure the area will be secured and the evacuation will continue.

Hope you are right.

An Italian C-130 reported being fired on as it took off.

Doc, 7000+ individuals evacuated in the last 12 hours, including 500 American citizens mentioned yesterday. Still dealing with the remaining 900 or so Americans. All indications are that special forces are being employed, and that the Taliban are assisting. The terrible events of today have not apparently stopped the evacuation.

An Italian C-130 reported being fired on as it took off.

Yeah, Doc, it's dangerous out there. It will remain so for these last few days. I'm sure counter measures are being implemented.

Did it ever occur to you Legion that adhering to the 31st bought us some more time with the Taliban not being actively fighting against us?

The 31st came from the US leadership. And the Taliban agreed to it ! This Admin even tried to change it. To give us more time. But they again said no. Again the 31st was another blunder by those in charge at the top. The 31st is a date of our own making. There is no excuse for this from a military standpoint. It was a political decision for good "optics", etc.

The Taliban are also only not fighting us because they want to put a good face on it. For the world to see, etc. They are on a "charm offensive".

As they want us out ASAP so they can start making deals with the PRC, etc. I don't think the Chinese, etc., will cross the border, do anything, etc., in A'stan until we are gone. And things settle down a bit … The Taliban have even went to China to make deals already.

As well as the Taliban + AQ are going to have to deal with ISIS too … It appears ISIS were the bombers at Kabul. Killing 13 US Service members. 12 USMC + 1 USN Corpsman …

Plus we still do have the firepower in the air … But the Taliban know our top leadership are too weak to use it.

But … that could change … I hope. Regardless, someone is going to have to cover the last aircraft out. No matter what the date. That will have to be strike aircraft, etc., to close the door. Drones with Hellfires, etc., could do it …

Where there's a will, there's a way. Where there is no will . . . .

Rankin Bass : Where there's a whip there's a way.

I am concerned about all the blaming and demands for details. IMO, We don't know the story. And it's not time to give up operational details to the public. Our enemies love it when we watch cable news and go after ourselves, i think it motivates them.

If you want to tear our leadership, past and present, apart when this is over, go for it. But I think it's better to wait until our people get home in a few days.

I keep saying we don't know the full picture … With this size of a blunder, we may never will …

Legion 4,

The chances of the Chinese and the Taliban making deals after the Uighur suppression is just about zero. In fact, events have given both Iran and China a real problem on their borders. Neither are likely to form any deals with the Taliban. Quite the reverse, since both China and Iran have already made deals, they will be very wary of the Taliban.

The Taliban will be concentrating on their Isis rivals and securing their government. Not too much time left to plan much else.

There are so many cross conflicts and deadly vendettas between diverse elements in Afghanistan that we are likely to see a lot of infighting. There will be little need to use our AirPower after we leave. What happens there we can expect will have less impact on the US. It will recede into the backwater it has been for centuries.

Tort, quite right. I suspect there will be many revelations to come on actions taken and diplomatic overtures. It remains to be seen what the final assessment will be. Right now there's a lot of partisan assumptions. Quite right about waiting to see.

The chances of the Chinese and the Taliban making deals after the Uighur suppression is just about zero.

The deals are always being made. The Taliban, AQ, etc. don't care about the Uighurs. I'm surprise many don't know this …

China & the Taliban
link

Iran & the Taliban
link

Taliban vs. Uighurs
link

Moslems don't care about the Uighurs
link

The PRC, Iran, etc., know what is going on … many here don't …

There will be little need to use our AirPower after we leave

We will have to see …

All of this was prior to the current events and was a Taliban looking for any support it could find. I think the next year could be interesting. Damn, Uighur get no love from anyone. Thanks for the info. I guess it's like Baptists and Catholics, religion divides as much as it joins people together!

Yes, but Baptists and RCs increasingly are allies against the seculars. The Reformation was a LONG time ago. Alliances change over time.

Uighurs like Kurds are considered expendable by all major players.

I didn't know seculars were a religion. The absence of something doesn't make it something.

Zero is a number. A religion is an internally consistent world view, a set of assumptions about reality. Everyone has them. It is a matter of faith. An atheist can no more disprove God than a theist can prove Him.*

* Except through direct personal experience. I KNOW God loves me because He has demonstrated it repeatedly, and spoken directly to me. No way to transfer my knowledge-by-experience to you.

("People who see angels are superstitious." "How do you know they are superstitious?" Well, they believe in angels.")

All of this was prior to the current events and was a Taliban looking for any support it could find. I think the next year could be interesting. Damn, Uighur get no love from anyone. Thanks for the info. I guess it's like Baptists and Catholics, religion divides as much as it joins people together!

This has been going on before this cluster happened. Your S2 is not keeping up with the Intel …

link

link

link

Tell your S2 to pay attention … there is a war going on …

Uighurs like Kurds are considered expendable by all major players.

Very true … They are and will be a write off …

I didn't know seculars were a religion. The absence of something doesn't make it something.

As one of the links I 🐷posted above mentioned. Many only get "religious" when it suits the situation, etc. This is has been a reoccurring situation through out the Mid-East, A'stan, etc. Again, the information is out there … one just has to use a search engine …

Something else I've noticed … many of the media are or have tried to paint a pretty picture of our Top leadership, etc. I always liked that old saying, "You can put lipstick on a pig … but it's still a pig." … 🐷

Not that I'm calling anyone a pig, that is not my intent. But I think everyone gets what I'm trying to say. The media spins, etc., to fit their narrative and agenda, etc. You can paint a haunted house … but it's still a haunted house … 👻

We see here again :

Failure to follow the intel …

Closing Bagram …

Pulling out the Troops before the civilians …

Agreeing to 31 Aug as an end of evac date …

These decisions and others have been faulted by many former military members of all ranks. Up to and including very capable COLs & GENs. I truly believe the current high ranking officers in the military and intel members gave those at the top the right intel and how to do this evac properly. And I believe their wise advice was ignored by those elected and appointed at the very top. Blood is on those at the top hands' …

doc mcb again +1 …

Note civilian and Vet NGOs, etc. are getting people out on their own. Some are getting Christians out as they have been tortured, raped, and many other heinous acts too horrible to be mentioned here. Their only crime is being Christians in an region/area dominated by fundamentalists radical followers of another religion …

Of course this treatment is not just for Christians … the list is long of those that have been tortured, raped, killed, etc., for a variety of reasons. E.g. not wearing a burka.

And yes this was going on in the 20th and now the 21st Century. Madness … just madness …