Hi Murvihill,
Dunno about being a "smarter mind", but I've read a good deal on this campaign. It was the slow but steady attrition of the highly trained pre-war IJN surface warships and their crews and commanders (by subs, mines and air as well as surface combat) that ultimately did them in. From my perspective the night-fighting balance finally started to shift in 1943 as a result of several important factors (in addition to the gunnery radar advantage we all know about) -
> real destroyer and cruiser formations began to appear in the Solomons instead of individual ships being thrown willy-nilly into the cauldron on a "catch as catch can" basis. Burke's DD squadron, for example, benefited greatly from the fact that they actually had a chance to train together before being committed to action.
> the USN's torpedo problems were FINALLY resolved.
> Some smart cookie(s) in the USN (don't know who) realized that blind-fire night torpedo attacks under the control of SG surface search radar would work, which turned US DDs into legitimate ambush ship-killers.
> The DD squadrons finally got out from under the "big gun" admirals and had a chance to work as "independent operators" instead of being tied down as escorts to the cruiser and BB gun lines.
> A lot of new IJN destroyers with raw crews and inexperienced commanders were starting to show up.
> A fair number of IJN destroyers were being diverted to carry supplies to support the Japanese army forces on Bougainville, thereby transforming them from weapons into liabilities.
Nevertheless, the USN remained tactically careful. You never knew when you might run into an "old pro" or two; some of those Bougainville campaign night battles could legitimately have been called draws. A good book – and really the only one I know that covers this period from the IJN side – is "Japanese Destroyer Captain" by Captain Temeichi Hara. Definitely worth a read.
B