"Taliban Threaten To Seize First Afghan Provincial Capital" Topic

"Heavy fighting between the Taliban and Afghan government forces has continued in the capital of Helmand province, Lashkar Gah. The Taliban now control several districts of the city, according to local journalists contacted by CNN.

The Afghan military reinforced its presence in the city on Saturday, bringing in special forces, according to a tweet from the 215 Corps, an army unit. It also carried out airstrikes against Taliban positions.

Lashkar Gah sits on strategic routes in all directions, including the highway between Kandahar and Herat and important agricultural areas to the south of the city. The Taliban has long had a strong presence in Helmand province, including around the capital, but has not occupied any part of the capital since being overthrown in 2001…"

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Armand

From Military.com

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And the horror continues …

Thanks!.

Armand

More from Military.com :

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Taliban Commander Who Led Attack on Afghan City Was Released From Prison Last Year, Officials Say

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Armand

Should we start a pool on how soon Kabul falls ?

Yes… but quickly… (smile)

Armand

I'll put you down for that …

(smile)

Armand

Reports Say The Taliban Have 'Executed 900 People In The Past Six Weeks In Kandahar Province Alone

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Armand

Sadly no surprise … And they will get away with these war crimes/against humanity … The UN, etc., can do nothing …

So far 5 out of 34 provincial capitals have fallen to the Taliban with a 6th mainly in Taliban control and 2 more under siege:

Zaranj (South West) – fell 6/08. Captured without much fighting.

Sheberghan (North)- fell 7/08. Formerly General Dostum's stronghold.

Sar E-pol (North) – fell 8/08.

Kunduz (North) – fell 8/08.

Taloqan (North) – fell 8/08.

Lashkar Gar (South)- most of city under Taliban control by 7/08, some fighting still occurring in a small strip.

Herat (East) and Khandahar (South) – heavy fighting continues.

Afghan Army continues to disintegrate and warlords are starting to assert their control over some parts of the country.

Clearly we're going back to the 1990s!

US uses B-52s & Gunships on Taliban … link

Taliban roll on …
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I guess AQ & ISIS are just awaiting their turn to join the slaughter …

How long does the US think it can win with just airpower?

I think a big problem is the Afghan government is generally fighting for every town that is under siege. It is is bleeding oit their only good troops (up to 56,000 special forces though number number probably lower).

Many of these towns are surrounded with
limited chance of resupply as they have no airfields and roads are cut off. The Afghab air force is also poorly equipped with tactical airlift- only 4 C-130 and rest is rotary. Even the Soviets supplied the Adghans with large number of Antonov tactical airlifters.

They probably should pull out of some of the worst surrounded towns and concentrate their forces. At some point they might have regained the momentum added can go back on the offensive.

Provincial capital Aybak in the North has fallen to Taliban. ANA withdrew.

ANA apparently engaged in combat operations in 14 provinces (not including several already lost). They are claiming massive kills against Taliban but not reporting reporting on own losses.

Taliban have posted pictures of captured Army bases, and there is questions as to hway has happened to a number of ANA HQs which may have been captured.

Live coverage here

afghanistan.liveuamap.com

How long does the US think it can win with just airpower?

I don't think they plan on winning with airpower … but they will assist the ANA/ANP as long as they can. Attriting the Taliban, etc., as much as possible. Will it make a difference … ? No not in the long run …

But you know my take on it … The only good jihadi/fundamentalist/radical/fanatical terrorist is a dead terrorist … ☠ Even though the Taliban are no threat to the West outside of A'stan and Pakistan. Plus some AQ & ISIS may get killed in the mix too. So good hunting …

claiming massive kills against Taliban

We could only hope …

We could only hope …

Agreed but I don't think the government is telling any truths. The truth is on the ground – Taliban's taking over cities and districts and parading with newly captured American supplied equipment.

Apparently there's some to-and-fro between Taliban and ANA but the overall victor each time seems to be the Taliban.

I did read that the Afghan airforce has expended virtually it's whole stock of LGBs for their A-29s Super Tucanos.

They've lost a ton of helos including 4 UH-60s (out of 30-40-ish delivered so far – 53 on order), 2 MD530 Little Birds and 4 Mi-17s shot down/destroyed on the ground. That doesn't include aircraft seriously damaged or grounded due to issues with maintenance.

Once the air force is grounded, then the ANA will probably completely collapse.

And thanks to the process of "Americanising" the fleet with harder to maintain less rugged types that offer less capabilities like UH-60/MD-530F than the Russian Mi-17/-35s the Afghans know and trust, that airforce will be grounded a lot sooner.

Agreed but I don't think the government is telling any truths.

No surprise there …

Taliban's taking over cities and districts and parading with newly captured American supplied equipment

Just like ISIS in Iraq in 2014 … The NVA did similar … IIRC, seeing former US AFVs with the NVA insignia.

Apparently there's some to-and-fro between Taliban and ANA but the overall victor each time seems to be the Taliban.

Again … no surprise …

I did read that the Afghan airforce has expended virtually it's whole stock of LGBs for their A-29s Super Tucanos.

Well at least the US is continuing to fly airstrikes & CAS. See link …

From Military.com
US continues airstrikes – B-52s, AC-130s & Reaper Drones[good hunting boys!] link

Once the air force is grounded, then the ANA will probably completely collapse.

If not before …

newly captured American supplied equipment

E.g. An Loc '72, the NVA were using 17 recently captured US made ARVN supplied M-41 Tanks. Along with T-54s, etc.

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Where do the Taliban get their resupply of ammunition from? Here in the land of the free the local gun stores are always out of stock on ammo.

Pakistan I suspect.

But all the borders around Adghanistan are porous and every single neighbouring country a dysfunctional, corruption third world state (Pakistan, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan). All would also have access to huge amounts of badly regulated weapons and ammo either from Soviet era for most of the Stan's or Iran and Pakistan's own constant resupplies.

One thought I had about ANA'S predicament but also rise of ISIS in Iraq is how weak both the Afghani and Iraqi militaries are in artillery despite artillery playing a key role in most counter insurgencies, let alone conventional warfare as conducted by ISIS and now Taliban.

US focus in both countries was literally creation of police style forces – light infantry in MRAPs with small arms with also lightly armed rapid reaction forces in transport helos. Very little development placed on conventional capabilities but especially artillery.

But artillery has also been neglected in US and Europe due to air superiority. No need to maintain large numbers of artillery if you have a B-52 on standby packed to the rafters with LGBs.

Given neither the Afghans nor the Iraqis (nor most European states) are capable of maintaining sophisticated airforces capable of sustained, high tempo, high precision aerial warfare then old fashioned artillery and Grad style MLRS would be a far better option especially if coupled with simple UAV for spotting.

The Afghanistan Intervention: A Predictable Disaster

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Armand

ardo is correct IMO … ammo, etc., can flow in from any of the borders surrounding A'stan. Money talks … even in Pashtun …

And yes, FA is easier to maintain and use than aircraft, but either one requires some maint. crews who know what they are doing. It may have been too high tech for the Iraqis and Afghans without a US or Euro advisor(s) standing by.

AQ & ISIS are generally shown using basic small arms, including MGs, RPGs, RR, etc., as well as the occasional mortar. I saw on news reports columns of ISIS vehicles in Iraq with Russian made and even captured US equipment. As well as T54/55s in both locations.

Oh don't forget the large fleet of Toyota , etc., pick up trucks in the Taliban forces. Some not even painted but stock off the car lot.

ISIS uses a lot of captured US made Iraqi HMMWVs too … They captured around 2300 if those figures are accurate. Even if it 1/4 of that, those are still a lot !

But can either the Iraqis or Afghans maintain their US equipment? Or will it be like we see in many ISIS and Taliban mobs, generally only small arms, light weapons, etc. Those are easier to use.

I look forward to seeing ISIS vs. the Taliban with their AQ "allies" go on to slaughter each other with the Afghan Tribes and warlords in the mix …

Taliban control 65% of Afghanistan including at least 8 district capitals.

Fall of Kunduz Airport was a major blow as this was HQ for the Afghan Army's 217th Corps (one of the ANA's 7 main combat components). 215th Corps HQ at Lashkar Gar also may have been overrun as that city is mainly under Taliban control. Despite the names, these corps are really divisions.

All this has resulted in the President has replacing his chief of staff with the commander of the special forces.

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FA is easier to maintain and use than aircraft, but either one requires some maint. crews who know what they are doing. It may have been too high tech for the Iraqis and Afghans without a US or Euro advisor(s) standing by.

Before Americans came in 2001, both Taliban and Northern Alliance used artillery and MLRS despite a decade of neglect, collapse etc. In fact BM-21 Grad MLRS was a favoured weapon of both sides.

So clearly they maintained proficiency in these weapons despite the collapse of formal military education.

From what I can tell Afghanistan's artillery consisted of:

- 24 towed M114 155mm howitzers.

- unknown number of D30 122m howitzers (<100). This is apparently the primary artillery available at brigade level.

Note with some 20 odd geographically distributed brigades, that's only a battery of 4 guns per brigade at most and 12 guns per Corps/division.

Taliban captured some 32 D-30s so far though not all were operational.

- Some Zis-3 (3 captured by Taliban) and M-46.

- Unknown numbers of mortars.

Wiki reports Grads still in service but this appears erroneous – there's no evidence of these still being in service.

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Interestingly a total of 11 T-54/55/62 tanks have also been confirmed as captured by Taliban. Given only small numbers of these are available to ANA (maybe less than 50) it represents a significant loss.

Also no sighting of BMPs (c. 40-60 delivered post 2002). Could be these are no longer operational. However 3 M113s (170+ delivered) and 39 M1117 (out of 600+ delivered) have been confirmed as destroyed or captured by Taliban.

Again no idea how many were lost in previous operations or not serviceable or used as spares sources.

Found this report from November 2020.

PDF link

Air force summary is interesting:

Fixed Wing – transport
C-130 – 4 in total, 2 are serviceable

Cessna C-208 – 24 in total, 23 serviceable. Small utility aircraft capable of carrying 9-13 passengers

Fixed wing – attack
Cessna AC208 – 10 – all serviceable
A-29 Super Tucano – 24, 18 serviceable

Helicopter
Mi-17 – 13, 10 serviceable at time of writing. HOWEVER this does not count Special Forces Mi-17s. At least 5 Mi-17s destroyed in 2021.

UH-60A – 41, all serviceable. 12 more were on order at time of writing. HOWEVER at least 4 destroyed in 2021.

MD530 – 47 of which 38 are serviceable. More on order (up to 72 in total though this type has suffered losses in past). 2 destroyed/crashed in 2021.

Special Mission Wing has:

18 PC-12s used by Special Forces (13 transport, 5 SIGINT). This is a small executive aircraft that can carry 6-9 passengers.

50+ Mi-17 – as mentioned at least 5 lost this year.

Capture of rotorless Hind plus none of them being on this report seems to indicate the Mi-25/-35 Hind is definitely retired despite being far more capable than the MD530F "Little Bird".

Ironically US has cut several weapon supply programs to Afghanistan including additional 22 AC-208s, 89 UH-60s and several hundred 90mm gun armed M1117S.

Why is the Taliban on such a winning streak, and can the tide be turned?

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Armand

Good article but it doesn't mention the other fact that many politicians and whole army units have switched sides.

This map shows the fallacy of holding on to isolated cities that can only be resupplied by air:

Grey – controlled by Taliban/bad guys
Pink – controlled by Government
Green – contested/unknown

As I mentioned before the Afghan Air Force doesn't even have a sufficient transport fleet to actually maintain aerial resupply of 1 city, let alone many,

The Americans failed miserably here. The Soviets provided nearly 150 tactical transports to Afghanistan between 1975-79 including 20 AN-12 (C-130 equivalent) and rest An-26/32 (equivalent to modern C-27J). The Americans have provided 4 C-130(of which only 2 are operable). The Cessna 208 is a utility aircraft and incapable of shifting a lot of anything.

And in their wisdom the Americans were getting rid of the larger Mi-17s in favour of smaller and less capable refurbished UH-60s (main supporters of this were Congress people representing the Connecticut district that is home to the a Sikorsky Helicopters factory).

UH-60 CARGO CAPACITY
11 fully equipped troops
6 stretchers
1,200 kg internally

or

4,100 kg externally

Range: 590 km

Mi-17 CARGO CAPACITY
24 fully equipped troops
12 stretchers
4,000 kg internally

or

5,000 kg externally

Range: 495 km

Note the Mi-17 has much better internal volume as well as the useful rear access (clam or ramp depending on model) that allows loading of bulky items.

The Mil Mi-17 is such a good chopper Canada actually leased some as the CH-178 for use in Afghanistan. It is the most produced helicopter on the planet (even more than UH-1 Huey).

It's still common in NATO Eastern European states (Poland, Croatia, Czech Republic, Bulgaria) who only stopped buying them because Americans started putting sanctions on anyone buying Russian military equipment.

E.g. Polish Mil Mi-17 circa 2013 -these are still mainstay of Polish tactical helicopters with new ones delivered as recently as 2011-13.

The ANA & ANP falling back faster than the US thought. IMO shades of the ARVN during the closing days of the that long war too …

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So clearly they maintained proficiency in these weapons despite the collapse of formal military education.

Yes I remember seeing that. Who is actually maintaining those weapons ? Maybe former ANA, etc., … and they have taught those crews, etc.

Again no idea how many were lost in previous operations or not serviceable or used as spares sources.

That will have to cannibilize parts, etc., to keep those shooting, etc.

However 3 M113s (170+ delivered) and 39 M1117 (out of 600+ delivered) have been confirmed as destroyed or captured by Taliban.

Very bad situation … Nothing anyone can do …

I wonder if there will be a news blackout on Afghanistan because it will be an embarrassment to those in power. No one will see the slaughter that is coming. Thank you idealistic globalists from both parties. You have spent billions of tax payer money and got thousands killed or seriously injured. And left behind US equipment and infrastructure for our enemies. Pat yourself on the back, executive bonuses for everyone.🤮

Well just saw on the news … US is sending 3000 Troops back to A'stan to get all of our people out of the US Embassy there …

Remember Saigon ?

Someone not reading history ?

I guess no one thought about this(?). We really must have under estimated the Taliban, etc., and must have over estimated the ANA/ANP(?).

This entire situation at this point is more embarrassment on the USA's highest leaderships' abilities, etc.

Herat (3rd largest city) has fallen and government forces have withdrawn from Kandahar (2nd largest) after intense fighting.

Several others have also fallen and remaining defenders of Lashkar Gar have surrendered.

The whole west and south of country is now is in Taliban hands as well as as most of north.

I'm was getting a running commentary like a baseball game on the news. As the Taliban rolls up the ANA/ANP like a cheap carpet …

This remember me Vietnam exit….

Armand

Yes … very much like Vietnam. Instead of Saigon they will roll thru Kabul. It probably will be televised.

My bet is there will probably be a military coup in Kabul at some stage too, probably after the last Americans leave on 31/08/21 (assuming Taliban don't get there first).

I think even if Taliban don't capture the whole country it will fall into warlordism.

In fact one could argue that warlordism never left Afghanistan. It turns out USA was a defacto warlord too as clearly none of the country's institutions will survive the US withdrawal and the US' period was only relatively "stable" due to US firepower.

Analysis: The U.S. Military, The Intelligence Community, And Washington's Political And Foreign Policy Establishment Failed In Afghanistan

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Armand

I think you are correct ardo …

As I said on another thread here … We have to have all intel assets, orbital, drone, etc., in the sky over there. To try to see if AQ, ISIS, etc. are planning an attack on the West. Then Reapers, TLAMs, etc., can take care of it. And we have to not be too concerned about CD. We have to take it into account. But not at the cost of our own.

Of course we have to have a place to launch those strikes. I'm not sure where we are launching from now ? One of the former USSR states that border A'stan ? I thought the Russians said we couldn't do that …

With any luck the Taliban, AQ, warlords, mullahs, ISIS, etc., will be too busy killing each other, taking slaves, etc., etc. To plan anything against the West. At this point I think home grown jihadis would be few & far between. If the FBI, etc., etc., are doing their jobs, etc., none will occur.

Plus any home grown jihadis caught will find out how nice Gitmo is this time of year.

What a mess….

Armand