"Go to War With China Over Vietnam? No..." Topic

You were asked – TMP link

If China initiated an invasion of conquest as opposed to a punitive raid, would the U.S. become militarily involved?

74% said "no, the USA would not go to war"

12% said "yes, the USA would go to war"

hmm, my money is still on Vietnam on this one. Not something that would be pleasant to the Vietnamese people, god forbids, but China would probably not have it as easy as one can think.
Alternative would be to subsidize the Vietnamese economy heavily, it would probably win them the war for cheaper.

The Vietnamese made their bed --let them sleep in it.

Russ Dunaway

Great country to sell weapons to. Boost the economy.

My money is on Chicoms. Vietnam's veterabs are long retires and they have struggled to modernise the arny. Air force has been modernised but has shrunk by over 50% and lacks many key modern components such as AWACS and Electronic Warfare. Vietbamese air defense is still mainly same S75/125 (SA-2/-3) used against Americabs in late 1960s and early 1970s.

Chicoms have pumped cash into all of this and have put in serious efforts into improving skills including exercises with western style forces such as Turkey and Thailand.The

I bet areldeadone would have put his money on the French and the US forces in the previous wars. ;)

@ repaint
The difference is no internal dissent in China. No domestic political consequences / distractions. They could potentially have the latitude to be as ruthless as they choose. Globally, maybe there would be backlash but most likely only dog and pony show objections. I'm not sure there is anyone left that would stand up to them. India? I'm not an expert but at times it seems like we're in another period of 1930's style appeasement.

It's certainly an interesting what if.

Nope … the USA would not go to war if the PRC attacked/raided/invaded Vietnam. I see no reason to … We didn't in '79[why would we ?] … why bother today ?

link Seems both sides claimed victory, IIRC …

In fact the USA owes Vietnam 0 regardless.

Or the PRC/CCP for that matter …

'm both !

I bet areldeadone would have put his money on the French and the US forces in the previous wars. ;)

Nope.

But the nature of the Vietnamese and Chinese militaries has changed dramatically since 1979.

This would not be an insurgency. It would be conventional warfare.

Also US was constrained by not being able to conquer North Vietnam which meant it was always on the defensive.

And as stated the Vietnamese military is not what it used to be. It has tried to modernise but without sufficient resourcing to modernise on a massive scale.

And the loss of veteran cadres is key. Those veterans still formed the bulk of officer corps and possibly even fighting formations in 1979 when the war with China began.

The VietMinh cut their teeth fighting the Japanese and then the French and then the Americans. Most of those who fought the Americans would be over 60 and often over 70 years old.

Finally the Chinese Army of 1979 was well and truly dire.

It had not modernised at all and was stuck in an early 1950s tactical model..

The Chinese Air Force didn't even play a role in 1979 fighting. Literally the Chinese invaded Vietnam without air support.

1. This was done for two reasons – to appease the Soviets – China did not want to provoke USSR and hence focused on the diplomatic message that the war was limited.

2. Vietnamese air defences might have been on their way to obsolescence by 1979 BUT they were extremely potent against the 1950s vintage Chinese air force based on MiG-17 (J-5) and MiG-19 (J-6 fighters) and Il-28 (H-5) bombers.

Note the PLA performed poorly in Vietnam in 1979 BUT the Vietnamese didn't have it all their way either. Casualties were actually quite similar.

Even if it were in American interests, it would be a difficult sell to the American public.

Yeah, who cares about the Sudetenland anyways -- the people there are ethnic German, so why not let Germany have it as long as we avoid trouble?? I'm sure that will work…

This would be a bit different than the last time they fought each other. For one the Vietnamese air force would be hopelessly outclassed and the Chinese would obtain air superiority relatively quickly. The Vietnamese army's plan is to hold as long as possible on the frontier until the military reserves can be mobilized, which is close to one million members strong and move into a city fighting/guerilla style campaign. There are scenarios where the French, UK, U.S., and Australia might intervene, but it would take some remarkable circumstances.

…my comment was based on the CCP's statements in recent years that it has an obligation to protect its ethnic Chinese brethren, or "Huaren," living outside of China. It may assert this with regards to Vietnam. Guess we'll see…