"What faces China in South China Sea" Topic

In all the uproar about SC Sea little is said about the capabilities of the countries in the area.

I will exclude Cambodia and Laos because they're too close to China and literally have no military capabilities at all or don't have claims to SC Sea. Brunei with its population of 460,000 and no real military is also excluded.

Vietnam
Fighter: 80 (46 Su-27/30 + 34 Su-22)
AWACS: 0

Subs: 6 (relatively new Kilo)
Frigates: 4 (new Gepard class light frigates)
Missile/ASW equipped Corvettes: 5 (mainly 1990s vintage)
ASuW Fast Attack Craft: 10 (dating to 1980s)

ASW aircraft: 0
ASW helicopters: 8

Long range SAM: 2 x S300PMU batteries, multiple regiments of obsolete S75/125 from 1960s and 1970s.

Malaysia
Fighter aircraft: 26 (8 F/A-18 + 18 Su-30) + 13 subsonic Hawks
AWACS: 0

Subs: 2 (relatively new)
Frigates: 2 (mainly 1990s vintage)
Missile/ASW equipped Corvettes: 6 (mainly 1990s vintage)
ASuW Fast Attack Craft: 8 (dating to 1970s)

ASW aircraft: 0
ASW helicopters: 12

Long range SAM: 0

Indonesia
Fighter aircraft: 49 (16 Su-27/30 + 33 F-16) + 23 subsonic Hawks + 14 T-50 supersonic trainers with limited capability
AWACS: 0

Subs: 4, building up to 8 (new subs but based on old U209 design whilst 2 are based on ancient U206 design and date from early 1980s!)
Frigates: 7 (mainly 1960s vintage ex-Dutch ships based on British Leander class without much in the way of upgrades)
Missile/ASW equipped Corvettes: 24 – mixed bag with some new ships but mainly old ex-East German ships of dubious quality and poor serviceability
ASuW Fast Attack Craft: 15

ASW aircraft: 0
ASW helicopters: 2 (not a typo)

Long range SAM: 0

Philippines
Fighter aircraft: 12 T/A-50 supersonic trainers with some combat capability.
AWACS: 0

(Note up to 1970s Philippine Air Force was one of the most powerful in SE Asia)

Subs: 0
Frigates: 2 (new modern ships)
Missile/ASW equipped Corvettes: 1
ASuW Fast Attack Craft: 0

ASW aircraft: 0
ASW helicopters: 2 (just like Indonesia, also not a typo)

Long range SAM: 0

Singapore
Fighter aircraft: 100 (40 F-15 + 60 F-16). Initial 4 F-35Bs ordered
AWACS: 4

Subs: 4 (being replaced by 4 new ultra advanced Type 218 subs)
Frigates: 6 (new modern ships)
Missile/ASW equipped Corvettes: 6
ASuW Fast Attack Craft: 0

ASW aircraft: 0
ASW helicopters: 8

Long range SAM: 12 Aster 30 launchers being acquired to replace MIM-23

Thailand
Fighter aircraft: 98 (34 x obsolete F-5E/F, 53 X F-16A/B, 11 x JAS-39) + 12 t-50 supersonic trainers
AWACS: 2

Subs: O in service, has ordered 3 Chinese Type S26 subs.
Frigates: 7 (6 older Chinese units plus 1 modern South Korean ship with a second one planned)
Missile/ASW equipped Corvettes: 7 (4 are obsolete)
ASuW Fast Attack Craft: 0

Thailand also has an aircraft carrier, however no fighter aircraft to operate from it following retirement of ancient AV-8S. Current ASuW helicopter fleet is too small to support this and other warships.

ASW aircraft: 1 (a lone ancient P-3 is still serviceable in ASW warfare role)
ASW helicopters: 10 all relatively modern MH-60/Super Lynx

Long range SAM: 0

So as you can see other than Singapore, the rest of SE Asia is incapable of defending itself.

It should be noted most of the militaries in SE Asia are in decline and well past their prime.

I will also mention that if any such country joins a US coalition against China will need significant bolstering by US forces as most lack anything approaching coherent or capable air or naval defences.

This actually further degrades US capabilities as units need to be deployed to defend cities and key infrastructure in addition to whatever forces they want to deploy to launch offensive action against Chinese forces etc

So much like many Eastern European NATO partners, these SE Asian countries also present a liability to US forces.

Notably SE Asian states are aware of their limitations and are either denying US access to bases or are even getting closer to China like Thailand and Philippines.

The biggest unknown for China at this time is what would the U.S. do? If they had good reason to believe the U.S. would sit out a regional war my guess is China would start picking off the smaller countries. If the U.S. and other allies intervene and things go badly, Chinese plans are going to get pushed back some 20 years. Australia and Japan are closely watching this as well, since somewhere down the line they would be next, although the Japanese fleet is pretty good.

I don't think there will be a regional war against most of the countries. The only possibility is Vietnam who would now probably be rolled by the Chinese unlike in 1979.

The Vietnamese have pumped money into their navy, but their air force has lost more than 50% of its fighter strength and the army has been completely neglected. And the old vets from 1945-1979 are long retired!

The bigger issue is current US strategy assumes access to these countries' facilities in any war against China.

My point is even if say Malaysia or Philippines decided to let the US use their bases in SC Sea, these countries would need to be massively bolstered by US units as they're completely unable to provide even a rudimentary defence themselves.

As for Australia and Japan:

- Australia has a superb air force – 100 F-35/F/A-18Fs supported by E-7 Wedgetail AWACS, A330 MRTT tankers and EF-18G electronic warfare aircraft. True powerhouse from a regional perspective albeit somewhat limited by short range of fighters and loss of true long range strike when F-111 was retired.

The Australian Navy is weak in terms of numbers – a mere dozen frigate/destroyers plus 6 submarines. There's plans for 12 submarines but that whole program is collapsing and spiralling out of control thanks to a real poor contract with the French.

- Japan – cannot be relied on right now unless there's an attack on Japanese soil. Japanese constitution (Article 9) still doesn't allow deployment of combat troops into other wars. Attempts by PM Abe to reinterpret Article 9 are viewed as illegal by many in Japan and Abe retired before he could reform the constitution.

60% of Japanese do not support any amendments to the constitution to allow more military freedom. With Abe gone, I doubt any new government will be pushing for reforms as such.

You should also include South Korea and North Korea in that analysis.

Tgerritsem but they aren't in SC Sea or have claims that far south.

If the situation gets so hot that Australia gets involved, I can't see Japan being able to sit it out, nor PLA war plans not including Japan. The Quad is becoming a real thing, and I suspect the chances are Five Eyes will become Six over the course of the next ten years, with the addition of Japan.

It's those two arrangements (Quad and the Eyes) which I feel will define the next twenty years of PRC/PLA scheming and planning more than anything.

Japan can sit it out if it gets hot in SC Sea especially as any such war will be the result of a US intervention.

Left on its own, China simply swallows up the SC Sea without firing a shot (as they have been doing for last 20 years).

What many in the west fails to realise is that China only has one reason to launch offensive action – Taiwan declares independence.

The rest the Chinese will do with subterfuge, obfuscation and economics (as they've been doing for two decades).

The US allowed the Chinese to build island bases and it also allowed its SE Asian allies to wither on the vine and become more neutral.

Basically the US allowed China to take over the SC Sea.

The only way the US can remove those Chinese tendrils is via offensive action. And that gives Japan or India or anyone else an out.

As for the Quad, you're possibly right. However note that India as a a partner is unreliable – it's still too close to Russia (the main American enemy), it's ambitions are also expansionist, it's main concern is Pakistan and it's military is actually in a state of decline especially in terms of airpower and quality of ground forces.

Five Eyes actually scares the living daylights out of me as a huge chunk of it is directed at those countries citizens. Apparently our Australian government even wanted to share our medical records via 5 Eyes. Why does the CIA (or even Australia's own ASIO) need to know I had a colonoscopy and suffer from reflux and my wife is lactose/gluten intolerant and my father-in-law has heart troubles?!?

Finally Japan has a really big problem – it's population is in terminal decline. Japan's population peaked in 2008 at 128 million and has since been in decline (currently 125 million). By current trends, the population will be 70 million by 2060 and 42 million by 2100. (By 3000 there's only 500 Japanese people left!)

In any case it will be hard to maintain staffing for the military as well as spending to maintain a large navy and air force.

Sorry, but I disagree.

As powerful as the USA is, we can't force nations to act in their own best interests against China, and we are also not responsible for them not taking the danger of a rising China seriously, and instead choosing to "wither on the vine".

That is up to their leaders and people.

We've tried to lead and help support Asian countries against China, but with very little success. They seem to prefer to kowtow to their larger neighbor than confront them in a serious way.

I agree with you though, that the USA under Obama's "leading from behind" strategy (invoking TMP's 10 year rule here), which really isn't "leading" or "leadership" in any real sense, other than absurd, farcical, rhetorical claptrap for the masses. Americans certainly didn't want China to take over the South China Sea unopposed, but our President did nothing to stop it, sadly.

Who took over the Cocos Ils?
At the end of the second war they were an established B24 base. Did either India or Auastralia take over the place?
More imortantly, did anyone build any kind of naval support facilities three?

I wouldn't leave out Indonesia, Australia or even India in the over all balance sheet. All three have major influence over the region and are more than willing to get involved.

Troopwo as I posted above Indonesia has no real military capability. Its military is maonly a garrison force designed to keep rebellious islands in check.

ardo, how are your subs now?

Last I'd read the new Collins class (IIRC) were overly noisy, but I thought that was to be addressed.

Have then been fixed/upgraded, so they are quieter?