"How the US military is preparing for a war with China" Topic

"The Atlantic Council's publication of The Longer Telegram, which lays out a sweeping blueprint for a U.S. strategy to face China, provides significant clues about a new lay-down of American forces around east Asia.

Whether the new Biden administration fully embraces the paper's aggressive stance remains to be seen, but elements are under serious consideration. Certainly, the new team at the National Security Council, led by highly respected Asia hand Kurt Campbell and a deep bench of Asia experts, will be looking at a wide variety of options for the military component of a new overall strategic posture.

One of the key elements in the military component is a series of "red lines" to which the U.S. would respond militarily…"
Full text here
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Armand

Errrr….click bait title.

The article states that the plan has not been adopted by US government as yet and that only some elements were being considered..

As for red lines – hilarious given Biden was part of an administration that drew many red lines in Syria and then did nothing about them.

As for aggressive freedom of operation patrols, last time I checked it was the Chinese who did all the aggressive things (like the time their pilot crashed his jet into a USN EP-3 Orion).

U.S. Air Force will likely be shifting additional long-range land-attack bombers and fighters to Pacific bases that are widely distributed across Asia, including some very remote sites on smaller islands. These so-called spokes will be supported from larger bases in Guam, Japan, Australia and South Korea.

More crack smoked. US is unable to get any significant bases in SE Asia. Indonesia won't even let the USN refuel patrol aircraft let alone base them in their country. Even Philippines are wreaking havoc with their US relations.

Whole US strategy in SE Asia collapsed in 1991 and was never resurrected. Those countries shifted allegiances to where the money is (China) or at least became more neutral even if China was taking over their claims in SC Sea.

Even South Korea isn't that reliable a partner – they already acquiesced to China over purchase of THAAD system.

Note also most of SE Asia is a military liability. These are countries that can't track an errant civilian airliner let alone wage any kind of war.

They won't want US military installations on their territory simply because it compromises them and makes them a target in a war they don't want to fight let alone spend money preparing for.

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And without major investments in naval procurement and maintenance, the USN will continue its long decline.

The F-35 has also officially become a debacle with USN now looking at another short range European style 4.5th generation fighter to replace the 4th generation short range European F-16.

The KC-46 tanker is also a debacle the USAF called a lemon.

And the Marines who will magic themselves onto islands near Chinese naval bases, sink lots of Chinese ships/subs and then magic themselves out of there.

So the USN and USAF are undertaking massive losses of capability which makes large scale western Pacific operations highly unlikely .

As for red lines – hilarious given Biden

… and his family have close ties with the CCP…

The article is a puff piece. For whom is it written, the CCP? Announcing "red lines" is stupid. China will do what is in their national interest and there is very little anyone can do to stop them.

Last I heard those elected or appointed were thinking about a 10% cut back on military spending. I guess that is how the US is preparing for a war with China ?

Those making these decisions probably won't have any of their family or friends going into harms way, regardless …

Glup!.

Armand

Glad you're back Tango. I missed your "Glup!"'s.

I think folks preparing to confront China will be forced to become experts in the WW2 War in the Pacific. China is positioning itself to repeat Imperial Japan's WW2 strategy to isolate and dominate Australia in case of a conflict, and has been throwing cash around through its Belt & Road initiative to buy a strategic presence in the region.

Tarawa, Kiritimati, Hao Atoll, Guadalcanal are all seeing Chinese "investment" in ports and airfields. Papua New Guinea, Fiji and Tonga are signing onto Belt and Road, and Palau is being pressured to follow suit.

Those names should be familiar…the situation is also perilously familiar…a rising totalitarian Pacific Asia power with a superiority complex matched by what it considers to be historical grievances, undergoing a rapid military build-up while expanding its own economic zone (Belt & Road, meet Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere) and expanding its presence into a series of island chains in the Pacific to control commerce and naval movement…

A far better article on US preparations from The Drive.

This quote is particularly important as it highlights even major allies aren't necessarily willing to support US units which completely undermines the US strategy*:

However, reports have already emerged that many American allies and partners in the Pacific, such as Australia and South Korea, do not appear to be overly inclined to offer to host any of these weapons. A senior Japanese Foreign Ministry official did tell Nikkei Asia that the planned American missile force in the Pacific "could be discussed as we talk about the course of the Japan-U.S. alliance" and another Japanese official also told that out that this "would be a plus for Japan." At the same time, neither of those statements voice any sort of clear support for the country actually hosting the U.S. weapons itself.

I'm afraid with the current US leadership in charge … I doubt they have much of a strategy for pretty much of anything. If I say anything else … well .. never mind …

Yep, the US can't even secure its own borders; so not much faith it will be able to help other nations secure theirs.

I don't think it is, but even if they are, I doubt their recommendations will be heeded.

One of our top defense guys (pundit on a certain news channel frequently) just stepped back from saying we support Japan over their claim to the Senkakus, so…….

I suspect that retraction in the national media will be taken as weakness by the Chinese, and they WILL make a play to take them, and/or to deny Japan the ability to defend them. China just openly changed their "Coast Guard's" naval engagement rules to permit them to fire preemptively on anyone they deem to be cruising "in their waters". No doubt, they intend this to apply to both the East and South China Seas, as well as to the waters around the island nation of Taiwan.

Japan is concerned enough to be considering actually putting troops, radar, and weapons on the Senkaku Islands in order to counter Chinese naval incursions in the waters there, and to be able to defend them, if necessary.

That US military leader/spokesman has now openly called into question our support for our ally in the region, which no doubt, China WILL notice, and I predict, probably will act upon.

As USAFp correctly points out, the Chinese WILL also take note that if our leader is NOT willing to defend our national border, why will we do so with any other in far off lands?

Border ? We Don't have no stink'n border no more !!! 😁😎🤩

The PRC/CCP and many others can clearly see the state of the USA's elected & appointed leadership. I'm sure they know it is to their advantage …

The PRC/CCP and many others can clearly see the state of the USA's elected & appointed leadership. I'm sure they know it is to their advantage …

Why wouldn't they, given that a CCP thought leader recently got an audience laugh when he said they've put their guys into top positions of leadership with the US??

Chinese Professor: "We Have People at the Top of America's Core Inner Circle of Power"
Suggests that Trump was a problem for China and that Biden is a return to "old friends" in the establishment.

There have been any number of 180 degree changes from the last Administration, such as:

*Revoking bans on Chinese Communist Party-funded Confucius Institutes in American universities and junior colleges

*Revoking bans on Chinese Communist Party-connected energy company, banks and solar panel manufacturer ownership and investment in American energy companies

*Relaxing bans on Chinese Communist Party & Peoples Liberation Army connected companies being able to access capital on Wall Street

*Supporting the World Health Organization's findings that COVID did not originate in the PLA-managed Wuhan Bio research center

*Calling the "genocide" of the Uighur people a CCP "cultural norm" that is "perfectly understandable" given their history.

*Allowing access to the Fulbright scholarship program to Chinese students

*Beginning talks to reopen the Houston Consulate, which had been closed over espionage allegations

*Ending restrictions on 5G manufacturer Huawei

*White House Press Secretary Psaki also confirmed that the President's family remains financially invested in CCP-connected Chinese energy companies, declining to follow established practice of divesting from such personal investments and placing assets in a blind trust.

*Rethinking US asset based in the Pacific, including cancelling plans for a US defense presence in Palau…which has opened the door to heavy pressure by China to flip Palau into their camp…adding Palau to the list of expanding Chinese "investments" in a Pacific forward presence (ports and airfields) on Tarawa, Kiritibati, Hao, Guadalcanal, Tonga, Fiji, and Papua New Guinea.

link

(smile)

Armand

Amazing what a small little investment, like $1.5 USD Billion will buy you……..

Why wouldn't they, given that a CCP thought leader recently got an audience laugh when he said they've put their guys into top positions of leadership with the US??

Yes .. it is a pretty scary time … but many don't know, get it or even care. After all … we will all be getting "free" money in our bank accounts as soon as this weekend.

I do pretty much agree with everything else SBminisguy posted. It is clear to anyone with any common sense, critical thinking capabilities, etc. Sadly it appears those are in the minority. And again don't forget … more "free" coming our way … 🤑