"The proverbial ‘fall of Saigon’ is fast approaching in" Topic

…Afghanistan

"It was a little past three in the morning on April 30, 1975, when the American ambassador in Saigon received an urgent message from the commander in chief. "The president expects Ambassador Martin to be on the last helicopter," read the note, which authorized the use of 19 helicopters to evacuate Americans from the embassy grounds. "No more" helicopters, it said. The words were underlined twice.

A few hours later, as North Vietnamese troops pushed into the city and mortar fire edged closer to the embassy, ten Marines stepped onto the final helicopter to land on the embassy roof, according to French journalist Olivier Todd's account. An iconic photograph would sum up the hasty evacuation for generations. "I was the last one," said Master Sgt. Juan Valdez. Cobra gunships flew alongside the Marines as they headed towards the coast, with those on board cheering and taking pictures…"
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Amicalement
Armand

My bet is USA keeps their troops in, like they did in Syria.

Most likely the US military and diplomatic services will blatantly lie about what troops are on the ground like they did about troop numbers in Syria and Iraq.

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I don't think the USA will ever withdraw its troops from Afghanistan (or Syria or Iraq or <insert forever war name> as long as the USA exists.

Afghanistan, isn't that some strange rite of passage for world powers?
Or is being occupated by a world power some strange rite of passage for Afghans?

How would they endure their boring sunday afternoons if no one came over now and then since Alexander the Great and probably some Persians and proto Persians did.

And isn't China next in line?

Didn't the British planned the Wakhan Corrior just for this purpose?

…sigh…

The Man Who Would Be King – Beginning

The Man Who Would Be King – Ending

I remember hearing a story about a ceremony that was held in what would become Pakistan after the last British foray into Afghanistan. Medals were being presented to soldiers who had participated in the campaign.

Word about the ceremony had made its way into Afghanistan. A good sized Pathan contingent came down to attend and were pretty put out that no medals were planned for them.

"Hadn't we participated too?"

My money is on the Chinese intervening in the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas.

I agree with arealdeadone that the US will stay.

It might not make sense for them to do so, and it won't help the Afghans much, but the US does not leave unless forced out.

I foresee a live and let live state. They US will sit in their bases and the Taliban will run the countryside/small towns.

Yes, sadly some US troops will end up staying. And more $ wasted on a failed state. Hopefully we won't lose anymore troops. As far as the Afghanis … they can continue slaughtering each other well … forever … Seems to be their predilection. So many reasons to kill people in their minds ! E.g. Religion, tribes, ethnicities, warlord, mullah affiliations, AQ, ISIS, etc., etc.

"You can't free a fish from water." …

Most likely the US military and diplomatic services will blatantly lie about what troops are on the ground like they did about troop numbers in Syria and Iraq.

Talk about troops on the ground. There are more US troops in DC, about 7000, than in both A'stan & Syria together.

I guess they are on a "Peace Keeping" mission ?

Shouldn't the UN be doing those types of operations ?

Oh wait … then DC will be occupied by foreign troops !??!? 🤯😱

then DC will be occupied by foreign troops

Yes, but even there its population would be better armed and equiped, as I heard.

…
That occupied USA scenario of yours reminds me of some funny old british comedy from the 1950s with Peter Sellers in multiple roles:
The Mouse That Roared on Wikipedia

The Mouse That Roared Trailer on Youtube

I don't think it will be anything like the fall of Saigon. That would imply that the US is leaving. Despite the efforts of the previous two Presidents to bring our troops home, it has not happened. The military industrial complex wants us there. And who can go against such a vast bureaucracy.

Arjuna – you are very much correct about that, IMO. But once again the Gov't wants tighter gun control laws. Because everyone knows well armed criminals strictly follow laws of any type … 😁 So bring on the UN ! 😆

I have said before, if some enemy forces landed on the beaches of NY and/or NJ. The next morning they'd find all their vehicles up on blocks missing all their tires and radios … 🤩

I love that movie ! Peter Sellers was great !

I don't think it will be anything like the fall of Saigon.

I agree, no choppers lifting people off of roof tops. ARVN choppers landing on aircraft carriers with few to no one but the pilot on board. Then the deck got so full of fleeing aircraft, the sailors had to push most if not all of those choppers into the see …

Afghanistan's fall …
"It will not go out with a bang but a whimper." … forget who said that …

Why don't we set up an international roulette for Afghanistan? Every 8 years we spin a wheel for the great powers and whoever it falls on has their turn spending blood and treasure in the bottomless pit that is Afghanistan.

Or we just have the president meet with Xi, slap him on the shoulder and yell, 'Tag, you're it!'

I don't think China is going to get involved. Their military deployments are few and far between and usually extremely strategic in nature (eg protecting Chinese oil fields in South Sudan or protecting Chinese shipping in Red Sea via their base in Djibouti).

Afghanistan can be bypassed for Belt and Road.

I don't think China is going to get involved. Their military deployments are few and far between and usually extremely strategic in nature (eg protecting Chinese oil fields in South Sudan or protecting Chinese shipping in Red Sea via their base in Djibouti).

Afghanistan can easily be bypassed for Belt and Road.

Next option. like in the movie "Escape from New York" … fence in the entire failed nation. And let them kill themselves off … Which that are going to do with or without a wall.