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"Russian military buildup in Northeast Asia rattles Japan" Topic


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Tango0117 Dec 2020 4:36 p.m. PST

… and US


"Russia caused a major stir earlier this month when it deployed one of its most advanced air defense systems, the S-300V4, on a disputed northern island claimed by Japan.

This was no isolated incident: For several years now, Moscow has been on a mission to strengthen its military presence in Northeast Asia. To counter the U.S., Russia has upgraded its weaponry in its Far East, commissioned new ships for its Pacific Fleet, and significantly expanded military cooperation with China.

The buildup adds another layer of complexity in a region often preoccupied with territorial friction in the South China Sea -- and presents a challenge to U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's incoming administration…"
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Amicalement
Armand

John the OFM17 Dec 2020 6:34 p.m. PST

Oh, sure. Every little Bleeped text conflict in the world requires American attention.
Hey, foreign Johnnies! Spend some of your own money on your defense!

As for as those worthless islands are concerned, Russia conquered them fair and square in 1945 when they stabbed Japan in the back. Get over it. Just because we returned Okinawa doesn't mean you have to.

Oberlindes Sol LIC Supporting Member of TMP17 Dec 2020 10:19 p.m. PST

More of a stab in the chest: The USSR was an Allied power, and Japan was an Axis power, so it should have been no surprise that the Soviets would turn to Japan once the European front was secure.

Also, Japan started the war by attacking China in 1937, so fair and square if they lost some territory.

arealdeadone17 Dec 2020 10:35 p.m. PST

S300V4 isn't even state of the the art. This is the same system deployed to Syria whose performance against cheap Islamist drones has been mixed. S400 is the current Russian A2/AD "bogey man" (and it's performance too is overblown).

It's mainly an anti-ballistic missile system (S300PMU is meant to be anti-fighter though it too struggles with these). It's also good at swatting airliner sized targets flying at high altitudes (tankers, AWACS).

When it comes to swatting fighter sized aircraft, the range of these things drops to 15-40 kilometres depending on altitude.


And it's not like Japan is getting ready to attack these islands, let alone with ballistic missiles.

NATO should be overjoyed the Russians deploy it in a strategically unimportant place instead of Kaliningrad, Crimea or other more strategically important locations.

arealdeadone17 Dec 2020 10:53 p.m. PST

Also Russian strength in Pacific is extremely weak:

180 combat aircraft (all reasonably modern including 2-3 squadrons of Su-35).

1 cruiser (old)
6 destroyers (old)
2 large corvettes (2 new and a further 2 on order)
20+ FACs/light corvettes (all old).
13 attack subs (all mainly older boats – only 8 operational including 2 new Improved-Kilos).


There's also 8 SSGN/SSBN


Compare that to Japan with their 20 attack subs (mostly new) and 37 destroyer/frigates (also mainly new) and 300 combat aircraft.

My bet is on the Japanese even without the help of the US 7th fleet and PACAF with its 200 F-15/16 and A-10s.

Tango0117 Dec 2020 11:04 p.m. PST

Don't forget Japan Carriers… (smile)


Amicalement
Armand

Cuprum217 Dec 2020 11:06 p.m. PST

How about the fact that the Russian military doctrine enshrines the right to be the first to strike a nuclear strike against an aggressor who attacked Russian territory?)))

Personal logo Editor in Chief Bill The Editor of TMP Fezian17 Dec 2020 11:16 p.m. PST

Someone needs to write up a scenario!

Thresher0118 Dec 2020 5:25 p.m. PST

I suspect cruise missiles can be pretty effective at taking that air defense system down, and drones and other things can too, if desired.

Tango0119 Dec 2020 11:54 a.m. PST

(smile)


Amicalement
Armand

WarpSpeed19 Dec 2020 9:26 p.m. PST

Plus 1 to Cuprum.

arealdeadone20 Dec 2020 6:03 a.m. PST

Thresher cruise missiles are pretty useless against mobile AD systems unless you manage to bushwhack them (like anything really) Cruise missiles don't have the ability to detect radar systems unlike anti radiation missiles.

The only thing those Russian AD systems have got going for them is their mobility.

As the Israelis keep proving but you people keep ignoring, you can simply bypass A2/AD with electronic warfare and stand off weapons. The Syrian S300/Buk/Pantsir/S125M/S200/2K12/kitchen sink combo achieves nothing as such. It continues to exist in relative peace but ot achieves nothing- Israelis hit their targets with ease.

Oh amd Japan lacks offensive systems such as cruise missiles anyway – they would need some major rewriting od the constitution to get such weapons.

Thresher0120 Dec 2020 12:21 p.m. PST

It shouldn't be very hard to strap a radar detector/seeker in the nose of these, and they can hit GPS coordinates provided by drones, if the drones don't take them out first.

I was under the impression that they'd already amended their constitution to permit "offensive weaponry" some time ago, for other weapons systems.

arealdeadone20 Dec 2020 3:57 p.m. PST

It shouldn't be very hard to strap a radar detector/seeker in the nose of these,

It is not that easy- just ask the Iranians with their attempts at jury rigging much simpler 1970s systems.

You would have to considerably modify current US cruise missiles – everything from flight surfaces, internal composition (weight endurance), possibly power plant if the seeker adds weight etc etc.

Also most US cruise missiles are subsonic whereas the Russian AD systems are supersonic with speeds up to Mach 8.5.

Makes the cruise missile a really poor choice for slugging it out with AD systems.

The whole Russian system is actually designed to take out cruise missiles – S300/400 at long range, Buk/Tor at medium/short range and Pantsir for point defence. All coupled with huge amounts of radars and comms devices. Given you're talking Russian or Chinese mainland, this includes extremely powerful radars that can detect (but not necessarily target) stealth aircraft.

This is the cornerstone of A2/AD.


Our friends, the Israelis, have a much better longer range anti-AD system in the form of the LORA quasi anti-ballistic missile system.


This weapon system's flight profile means it completely avoids the air defence systems. Due to its angle of attack, Russian and incidentally American Patriot and other western radars cannot track it.

And the missile's target point can be adjusted.

The other Israeli development is the Delilah – a combination of cruise missile and loitering ammunition. It's small and actually quite slow so not as easily detectable.

The main disadvantage of these two systems is range – 400 km for LORA, 250 km for Delilah (Delilah requires aircraft to get within range of enemy SAMs*). This is fine for ground combat in close environments like Israel-Syria or Nagorno Karabakh but not so useful in a Pacific context where approaches to land based SAMs are going to be defended by coastal and sea based long range anti-shipping missiles, aircraft and submarines.

Again this is the whole point of A2/AD – multi-layered defence.


*Israel has one massive advantage in neutralising Syrians air defences – close proximity. Thus Israeli aircraft can launch weapons from within Israeli airspace! The Syrians don't target Israeli aircraft within Israeli airspace for obvious reasons.

Problem is west has been very slow in acquiring loitering munitions or hyper sonic quasi ballistic missiles. The emphasis in the west is still on short range tactical fighters to for strike capability ie F-15E, F-16C/V, F/A-18E/F and of course F-35 as well as older forms of cruise missiles. Even the F-35 is vulnerable in these environments as it needs support from non-stealthy tankers based on commercial airliners!


and they can hit GPS coordinates provided by drones, if the drones don't take them out first.

As mentioned the existing US cruise missiles are relatively slow and need to be deployed from out of range of defences – this could would give the Russians/Chinese time to detect strikes and redeploy as well as ramp up countermeasures.


The drones would have to be long range types that can deploy well out of the range of aforementioned defences.

I suspect such things are in development. I'm actually surprised that the new B-21 stealth bomber hasn't been earmarked as a deployment tool for large swarms of drones.

One can imagine B-21s "seeding" key areas with swarms of autonomous drones which then go around blowing up anything with the right kind of electronic signature or visual profile (still science fiction but work is progressing on this).


----


Oh and Japanese constitution still prohibits certain offensive weapons.

It's why their new light carriers are classed as destroyers.

However they are working on a new series of hypersonic cruise missiles mainly for anti-shipping but a land attack version has been mentioned. The program's status is unclear – SDF procurement programs are often scrapped before they come to fruition on grounds of excessive cost.

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