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"Likely Scenarios & Wargaming: China & Asia" Topic


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Stalkey and Co06 Sep 2020 6:22 a.m. PST

Was talking to a naval colleague the other day. He had some very interesting strategic points regarding Chinese expansionism. I am focused on Europe due to my work, but his thoughts were genuinely interesting and I wanted to see what people are thinking here – I know there are some well-informed people who even work in the right places.

1) what are your thoughts on likely areas for China to advance into? Hong Kong and Taiwan are obvious "reclamations" but what would be next? Exansion into a greater SE Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere leveraging partners like Laos is much more likely than say invading South Korea. Tibet as a battlefield between India and China seems an interesting possibility given recent border clashes.

2) Who would be hostile to further Chinese expansion? Mongolia? Burma? Russia? What are some likely frontier wars to break out?

3) Any suggestions on resources that – hypothetical as they may be – give some good gaming possibilities?

4) What about uniform and equipment resources? My most recent gaming has been Victorian Colonialism, so finding one Osprey on the PLA link seems like victory.

5) Assuming such border and frontier clashes may occur at a likely spot, what about some resources on LIKELY high-tech near future fighting? I say "likely" as I've no interest in hand-waving star wars space opera nonsense.

Thanks for your thoughts!

rvandusen Supporting Member of TMP06 Sep 2020 9:20 a.m. PST

One such place is the Philippines. China has long had designs on them, and the president of the Philippines is currently playing the US and PRC against one another. A dangerous game in my opinion.

Thresher0106 Sep 2020 11:27 a.m. PST

The Senkaku Islands with Japan, as well as the East China Sea, and perhaps other islands near there as well.

Some of Japan's Northern Islands, which are occupied by Russia – no need to keep a three-way battle off the table. Could make things interesting for more than just two players/sides.

India and Siberia, since they've been fought over before.

Yea, the Philippines is a good one too, since only the USA can stop that.

fantasque06 Sep 2020 11:28 a.m. PST

Hong Kong is already part of the PRC, so no 'reclamation' needed there. Same goes for Macau.
Taiwan is the most likely target for a hot conflict.

smithsco06 Sep 2020 11:43 a.m. PST

Taiwan for sure. I've seen a fair number of articles in the last year saying the PLA is studying how the US won the campaigns of the South and Central Pacific to prevent them from doing it again which seems to indicate to me that they see the islands as their near term targets. When China went south Vietnam made them pay for it in the 70s and 80s. I believe the longest term goal is Siberia for the resources but China can't afford to do that without either defeating the US first or without Russia and the US fighting first. Japan's two front war in the Pacific and mainland Asia wasn't sustainable. China couldn't sustain it either.

Thresher0106 Sep 2020 6:01 p.m. PST

North Korea, if the "Dear Leader" is truly in a coma, or dead, and the power transition to his sister doesn't go smoothly, things could be up for grabs, with the USA wanting to seize/secure the nukes, and the Chinese wanting to oppose that, and to back another dictator.

South China Sea some islands China claims are occupied by the Vietnamese, so that could be another flashpoint too.

China gunned down a lot of Vietnamese a few decades ago, over their presence on a submerged reef. The Vietnamese have not forgotten that.

GurKhan07 Sep 2020 2:05 a.m. PST

I think this paper link has been referenced on TMP before. It appears to indicate what some elements within the Chinese establishment were thinking a few years ago.

Stalkey and Co07 Sep 2020 7:20 a.m. PST

@GurKhan
Some interesting things to think about. I like the 100 year reclamation project. It's bizarre that a communist regime is embracing the borders of historical imperial boundaries [as they see them] but one can't expect much sense from pseudo-communists.

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