"The War that Never Was?" Topic

"The beginning of major state-on-state conflict is almost always a surprise . . . at least to one of the two sides. The China–Taiwan conflict of early 2021 was no exception. The overlapping factors that brought it about now seem so obvious in retrospect. First, the convergence of Thucydides' three sources of conflict—fear, honor, and interest—was unprecedented at the time. On top of this, Chinese recognition of a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and leader Xi Jinping's eagerness to solidify his re-election in 2023 made it almost inevitable.

Regarding "fear" as a source of the conflict, we always knew the Chinese Communist Party, as an authoritarian regime, harbored as its principal concern a loss of control over its own population. As the roller coaster year of 2020 dragged into its second half, a resurgence of COVID-19—this time scattered throughout the country and again initially covered up by the regime—began to cast real doubt among the Chinese population of the competence of the Party and its leader Xi Jinping. The crash of the Chinese economy, due partly to COVID and to secondary sanctions imposed by the United States on China's banks after the crackdown in Hong Kong (itself the result of a U.S. administration wanting to look tough on China during an election campaign), only exacerbated Xi's concerns. Watching protests break out and fully aware of the historical fragility of the so-called "Mandate from Heaven," Xi began to look for an external cause to distract the population from its mounting anger and anxiety…"
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Amicalement
Armand

Timing seems right to me, given current events, and depending upon what happens in November.

Perhaps even a late 2020 attack, during the transition of power.

Does the PRC have the force projection capabilities to invade Taiwan ?

Does the PRC have the ability to neutralize the USN and USAF in the region ?

Depending on the results of the 2020 election. Whether the US military is weakened or maintained as combat ready will be a factor as well IMO.

However, regardless I don't see any real viable scenarios where the PRC could invade Taiwan successfully.

I do.

They have a huge, "civilian" merchant fleet with quasi-military ties, not to mention ALL the cargo ships, naval vessels, and other craft. These are the same vessels they've used to swarm various islands in the past, and/or to threaten and ram vessels from other nations from time to time.

Their air force is much larger than Taiwan's too.

Think reverse Dunkirk………..

Not sure the USN or USAF could get there in time to make a difference, even if it was decided that they should.

Agree….

Amicalement
Armand

The PRC's amphibious capability isn't very impressive. Even if they manage to dominate the airspace and land troops with little casualties, Taiwan's strategy is to hold the Chicoms off until the US can come to its aid. It will depend on whether they can buy enough time.

Let's see the Chinese economy is a wreck, still dealing with Covid-19, they have devastating and ongoing floods, Civil unrest in HK and other areas.

I don't think they need or want any more problems.

Not sure the USN or USAF could get there in time to make a difference,

They are already there. On the sea and on land on nearby friendly/allied nations.

The PRC's amphibious capability isn't very impressive.

That is my bottom line. They don't have the assets to even attempt a successful amph invasion.

Even if they manage to dominate the airspace and land troops with little casualties,

Won't get that far … again USN & USAF and maybe even some friendly local UN nations will get in the way.

Chinese economy is a wreck, still dealing with Covid-19, they have devastating and ongoing floods, Civil unrest in HK and other areas.

Exactly …

Part II…

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Amicalement
Armand