"Should The U.S. Go To War Against China If They Attack" Topic

…Taiwan?

"America has no formal treaty obligations to Taiwan, and conflict would result in significant casualties. Are we ready for that?

Rep. Ted Yoho had a PR nightmare this week after reportedly calling Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez some ungentlemanly terms. Though this is the controversy du jour, we should not lose sight that actual policy is more important than sound bites. Yoho recently announced plans to submit legislation this week for the "Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act" that would commit the United States to war against China if Beijing attacks Taiwan. Such a proposition has long been popular in the Beltway. Before tying the United States to Taipei's fate, however, a closer analysis is warranted.

The most fundamental starting point of any discussion of potential agreement that could commit our country to war is examine how it affects our interests—namely, our national security. If Taiwan were attacked, would it result in a direct threat to America? If we committed to the defense of Taiwan, what benefit does the U.S. gain that is commensurate with the enormous risk? The answers to these questions are paramount…"
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Amicalement
Armand

Yes.

I can more easily imagine China seizing some smaller islands than suddenly invading Taiwan. If it got that far – the situation would be very different.

The first step – before any 'piece of paper' is to review the US forces posture in the region and come up with some plans about what to do to prevent an invasion. I don't doubt the US military is looking hard at this and some changes seem to be taking place already.

I don't think Yoho can recover from his recent transgression, but the need to confront China is still very real. Individual politicians are expendable.

Simple: do you or not have a defense treaty with Taïwan? SEaTO?

One thing the situation in Asia is not is 'simple'. It's Gordian. We'll need a Machiavellian intellect to untangle it.

What the US should do would depend on the circumstances, and if the other circumstances lead to a "yes" China would not go ahead. China would wait and arrange until it makes no sense for the US to attack, then invade. So the question is sort of silly.

And when we abandon Taiwan to it's fate, what will the Philippines, Indonesia, and even Japan and Australia think of American "support?"

Take one free, and the others will have to consider changing allegiance….

TVAG

We could simply declare "We have no opinion on the <strike>Arab-Arab</strike> China-China conflicts, like your border disagreement with <strike>Kuwait</strike> Taiwan."

Apparently 'strike through' does not work on this page. Humph!

And when we abandon Taiwan to it's fate, what will the Philippines, Indonesia, and even Japan and Australia think of American "support?"

Take one free, and the others will have to consider changing allegiance….

1. Philippines are already starting to flirt with China and are looking at reducing their alliance with the USA including booting US troops out and heavily reducing military cooperation (announced by Philippines earlier this year).

2. Indonesia is not a US ally (and never were). They too have been expanding ties with countries hostile to the USA.

3. Australia literally just refused to join US operations in SC Sea, the Foreign Minister stating that "(t)he relationship with China is important, and we have no intention of injuring it". Australia is economically reliant on China and is also heavily infiltrated by PRC.

So I suspect whilst Australia might oppose the invasion of Taiwan by PRC, the Australian government would not join any US efforts to defend it.

Note Taiwan is not a sovereign country in the eyes of the international community. It is not recognised by the UN or most sovereign countries including the US.

It is legally by all accounts a province of China and indeed up to 1971 the Taiwanese government was legally the legitimate government of all China and as such represented China at the UN etc.

Taiwan's constitution also does not maintain it is an independent country.

This gives the US a get out goal free card as it could be construed that legally any Chinese action against Taiwan is an internal issue.

Finally US commitment to defence of Taiwan has been floundering for years.

For example weapon sales are often rejected by US and very often Taiwan gets offered subpar equipment. For example the US objected to a sale of 66 F-16C/Ds to Taiwan for a decade.

The Taiwanese then started requesting F-35s and the USA has just allowed them to buy the original 66 F-16C/Ds which is not in the same league as the F-35 and probably only offers parity against current Chinese fighters.

The rest of the west is even worse – bar maintenance of equipment acquired in the 1990s the Europeans have effectively embargoed Taiwan for 20 years!

Forgot to mention even the original 150 F-16A/Bs sold to Taiwan in the 1990s were downgraded.

The current version during this period was the F-16C/D Block 50.

Taiwan wasn't sold this version but instead sold the F-16A/B Block 20. The Block 20 was effectively a Block 15 OCU with some elements of Block 50. Still it was downgraded – for example it didn't have the current AN/APG-68 of the Block 50 but rather an uprated older AN/APG-66 which still lacked the range and capabilities of the AN/APG-68.

I guess this was fine when China operated J-6 (MiG-19) and J-7s (MiG-21) but China was already acquiring Su-27s at the time and had signed a licence production agreement for them!

A great example of how the US has been turning the screws on Taiwanese defence capabilities since the 1970s!

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The US formally began limiting arms sales to Taiwan in 1982 when they signed a Joint Communique with China that promised to reduce arms sales.

However it started in the 1970s. Note Taiwan was not provided with F-4 Phantoms in the 1970s even though South Korea was. South Korea started sending F-5As to South Vietnam and in turn received F-4Ds (and then was allowed to buy F-4Es).

Taiwan also supplied F-5As to South Vietnam and in turn got F-5E Tiger IIs and was then allowed to buy more F-5Es.

US was unwilling to provide anything more complicated than an F-5E up to 1992 despite Taiwan requesting F-16s from the early 1980s!

So between 1970 and 1992 ROCAF suffered a massive decline in quality. Other than F-5E/F they were only able to procure some replacement F-100s in the 1970s (A models upgraded to include elements of D model) F-104s in the 1970s and 1980s.

The Navy and Army are in similar states – indeed Taiwan is one of the few places where the M48 Patton derivatives still plays a vital role as well as the M41 Walker Bulldog and other 1960s relics.

For the naval afficandos, 2 of the 4 submarines are WWII vintage Tench and Balao class subs commissioned in 1945 ad 1946 respectively! The remaining 2 aren't that new either, dating from the 1980s but based on a 1960s Dutch design.

But no one has been willing to sell them any submarines since the 1980s (indeed Dutch stopped sales once China turned on the screws in early 1990s!).

A 10 year old analysis of Taiwan's naval capabilities.

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Note since then not much has changed in ROCN whilst the PLAN has massively expanded its capability.

No. It's a "war" the US has already lost, the time just has to be set. Not enough allies within range to support a US response, no American support for it will come, bad for business, no intention of fighting or winning. Nothing indicates any of that will change in the future. So no, don't waste the resources.