"UK F-35 news" Topic

Seems UK will:

a. Not upgrade all 48 F-35B jets* they're ordering to Block 4 software standard (this is basically full operational capability).

b. Not obtain any gun pods for the F-35B.

c. It seems the Block 4 upgrade will average at $27 USD million dollars. Given F-35s are now being sold without Block 4 for $80 USD million means that to get a fully operational F-35 with Block 4 the unit cost is probably still over $100 USD million.

Note Block 4 isn't slated for service entry until 2024 at which point most NATO countries and Australia who have ordered F-35s will have them all delivered! So all these users will have to cough up huge amounts of cash to have them upgraded.

And that doesn't take into account already paid costs of incremental changes to early aircraft already delivered!

link

* UK has currently ordered 48 F-35Bs. The official requirements is 138. Yet no one knows when the other 90 will be ordered, or more appropriately if they will be ordered.

And then let's not forget the RAF is working on a new 6th generation jet, the Tempest.

In any case, RAF is in free for all. It's current fleet numbers are down to about 160 aircraft – 142 Eurofighters and 18 F-35Bs.

If the RAF orders a full fleet of 138 F-35s, there won't be much demand for the Tempest.

So I can see them limiting the F-35 fleet to 48 and then acquiring 140+ Tempests.

Of the 142 Eurofighters, only about 105 are modern Tranche 2 and 3 standard and the remaining 37 are Tranche 1s with very limited capabilities.

I guess it depends one whether the ones they are considering not upgrading are the early ones that have been used as part of the test / development fleet or a larger number. If the former then it would seem to make sense not to throw $27 USDm each at them but obviously more worrying if it is a larger number.

The RAF isn't in "free for all" or even free-fall but the front line fast jet fleet certainly has already shrunk to a worryingly low size.

The point of keeping those T1 Typhoons – which are perfectly capable for A2A but lacking the multi-role capability of later aircraft – was to maintain front line numbers between the phasing out of the Tornado and standing up the remaining three squadrons of F35s. The plan, IIRC is for a front line of 4 squadrons of F35B and 5 of Typhoon T2/T3. At the moment it is 1 of F35Bs and 8 of Typhoon.

I think more F35s will be bought – they would certainly be needed to sustain 4 squadrons. The questions are how many and what variant. 4 squadrons suggests 80-90. The idea of switching to F35A to save acquisition cost and for better performance is dangerous, I think, as it would create two different aircraft fleets, both too small for long-term viability, and fatally undermine the Royal Navy.

I'm slightly sceptical that Tempest will really emerge as an actual aircraft rather than the UK's entry ticket to a collaborative project but something is going to be needed to replace those 5 squadrons of Typhoons if we are to maintain even the current small front-line numbers. 138 F35s would only be enough to sustain about 5-6 squadrons.

Why countries shell out tens if not hundreds of millions per aircraft, and Billions/Trillions on them for "limited capability" models is beyond me.

They should negotiate better, and hold the manufacturers to account to "fix" or "correct" them so they are "fully" functional for that kind of money.

The RAF isn't in "free for all" or even free-fall but the front line fast jet fleet certainly has already shrunk to a worryingly low size.

Up to only a few years ago the RAF fast jet fleet was around 220 aircraft and in 2010 it was 270+. Now it's down to 160. That is a massive amount of cutbacks.

And it was actually slated to drop even further as all 53 Tranche 1 Euroghters were meant to be retired, but backlash saw most of them retained except 16 two seaters which were reduced to parts.

he plan, IIRC is for a front line of 4 squadrons of F35B

That 4 squadron plan was 4-5 years ago.

I wonder if they are now thinking 4 squadrons all up including 17 Test and Evaluation Squadron and 207 Squadron OCU? That leaves 617 RAF and 809 NAS as two frontline units.

The idea of switching to F35A to save acquisition cost and for better performance is dangerous, I think, as it would create two different aircraft fleets, both too small for long-term viability, and fatally undermine the Royal Navy.

Especially those two expensive carriers which would be left with airwings not that dissimilar to the old light Invicible class.

But there's talk of having USMC F-35B squadrons assigned to those ships.

I think more F35s will be bought

To be honest I would have expected them to have already ordered them if they want to secure production slots.

As it stands any deliveries of F-35A or Bs outside the initial 48 won't be delivered until at least 2024 if they are ordered now.

I'm slightly sceptical that Tempest will really emerge as an actual aircraft rather than the UK's entry ticket to a collaborative project but something is going to be needed to replace those 5 squadrons of Typhoons if we are to maintain even the current small front-line numbers.

Tempest already has Italy involved and Sweden is kind of there in a tech sharing arrangement.

As it stands if RAF and Italy are to buy sufficient numbers to replace Eurofighters on a 1:1 level, that's a production run of a mere 230 aircraft which is completely lacking in scale.

It's true that both the Gripen and Rafale aren't being produced in much bigger numbers but these are Cold War projects with much bigger anticipated production runs (French originally planned over 300 Rafales but now 180 seems to be the number + 84 sold for export so far).

Thus I think they might opt not to buy as many F-35s in order to allow for a bigger Tempest buy.

Further to this not all of the 48 aircraft have been ordered either:

link

In 2018 they order 17 F-35s which "doubled the order."

I looked at Wiki:

link

LRIP 3: 2 F-35B for UK
LRIP 4: 1 F-35B
LRIP 7: 1 F-35B
LRIP 8: 4 F-35B
LRIP 9: 6 F-35B
LRIP 10: 3 F-35B
LRIP 11: 1 F-35B

That is a total of 18 aircraft ordered by 2017. These have been delivered and are assigned as follows:

17 TES – 3 aircraft, located in USA
207 OCU – 6 aircraft
617 – 9 aircraft

Then add 17 aircraft in late 2018 and it adds to 35 out of 48. These 17 aircraft will be delivered between 2020 and 2022 (though none have been delivered as yet). First of these is on production line and according to UK serials delivery schedule is as follows:

ukserials.com

2020 – 3
2021 – 6
2022 – 8

So by end of 2022 UK has 35 F-35s. To keep deliveries ticking they need to order the next 13 this year or early next.

According to a post on this forum ( link ), the 13 aircraft have not been ordered due to pricing not being agreed. Their delivery schedule is:

2023 – 2
2024 – 4
2025 – 7

It should be noted that 809 NAS isn't excepted to stand up until 2023. I suspect it will be formed using some of the aircraft manufactured in 2021-22 but it probably won't be fully formed let alone operational until 2025.

This all apparently came out of a National Audit Office report.

Wow, they'll be obsolete before they're fielded AND fully capable at that rate.