"The End of Hong Kong" Topic

"Over the course of April and throughout May, while much of the world's attention was trained on the coronavirus's spiraling death toll, hardly a day passed in Hong Kong without news of arrested activists, scuffles among lawmakers, or bombastic proclamations from mainland officials. Long-standing norms were done away with at dizzying speed.

In that time, Beijing was undertaking aggressive actions across Asia. A Chinese ship rammed a Vietnamese vessel in the contested waters of the South China Sea, sinking it. Off the coast of Malaysia, in the country's exclusive economic zone, a Chinese research vessel, accompanied by coast-guard and fishing ships—likely part of China's maritime militia, civilian vessels marshaled by Beijing in times of need—began survey work near a Malaysian oil rig. The standoff that followed drew warships from the United States and Australia, as well as China. Beijing then declared that it had created two administrative units on islands in the South China Sea that are also claimed by Vietnam. Chinese officials have reacted, too, with predictable rage to Taiwan, whose handling of the pandemic has won plaudits and begun a push for more international recognition…"
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Amicalement
Armand

Hands up everyone that's surprised by this.

Not mine Dan!

So what? Hong Kong has become an irrelevance, its contribution to China's GDP have long been outshone by the likes of Shenzhen and its status as the PRC's expat enclave usurped by Shanghai.

And oh my god, the people. A few friends aside, they deserve every bit of totalitarianism coming their way. It's a very cool city with a great cyberpunk atmosphere, enviable access to beaches and hiking trails, and a fantastic culinary scene (albeit one that is being upstaged by the mainland). But man, does the population know how to make you feel unwelcome.

And look, there will always be Singapore.

Wow. Tell me again how ANY human being deserves ‘totalitarianism coming their way?' Sometimes it's better to remain silent and be thought the fool than to speak and remove all doubt.

HK people must be cursing Great Britain for giving them up.

Can somebody explain to me why there is no exodus? The writing is definitely on the wall. Of course, all those dual citizen types who thought their western passports would protect them from being "disappeared" up into the mainland were kidding themselves. Maybe Cleopatra wasn't the only queen of denial.

Perplexing.

In theory HKs separate system is sort of guaranteed for a few more years – in practice apart from being seen to unequivocally act in bad faith before the international community the CCP could impose direct rule on a whim (to be honest it can yank enough chains and cut enough corners to more or less act like it). At that point I'd expect the majority to remain and knuckle under, a few dissidents will leg it and few may stand by their principles and remain – to then be disappeared. China being one of those states that struggles with the idea that loyalties may be a complex thing I'd advise anyone with a dual passport to think very carefully about their future. And experience shows it offer no protection. As for 'getting out', for all the diplomatic tutting that may ensue over bad behaviour by the CCP the UK for one isn't going terribly welcoming to large numbers seeking asylum.

It's just human nature to be in denial. And most people don't want to leave their home and start all over again. The older you get, the harder change is. And most people are sheep that will just let their executioners march them toward their death chamber without a fight.

They are doomed….

Amicalement
Armand

Perhaps they know that like the Chinese head guy of Interpol, they can be kidnapped, killed, or disappeared anywhere on the planet, and few if any will help them.

In addition, their family and friends can be made to suffer too, and as the Tiananmen Square Massacre has shown, the Chinese leadership is not squeamish about brazenly snuffing out the lives of dissenters, AND then denying it ever happened.

To be fair, it isn't Britain's fault, it is the fault of the totalitarian, communist Chinese government leaders running the place.

I'd love to see them overthrown, but think it is probably unlikely to occur in my lifetime.

I'd love to see them overthrown, but think it is probably unlikely to occur in my lifetime.

IMO assuming absence of major war, the People's Republic of China will be the preeminent world power by the end of this century if not sooner.

And that will probably result in more radical shifts elsewhere. Already democracy has been failing in a number of states and China's success will make their model far more attractive.

One of the key questions we face at this time is how to confront China – or the CCP controlled version of China. [Climate Change is probably more serious but that doesn't mean we can ignore China].

There are lessons to be learned from the mishandling of the fall of the Soviet Union.

We don't want to lure China into a proxy war like Afghanistan – that was a disaster with repercussions running into the present day.

We don't want China to turn into a Kleptocracy like Russia did and we don't want a Chinese version of Putin either.

So how to proceed?

#1 – do not allow China to use military force to gain territory or control of seaways.

#2 – don't let China buy influence in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe or the US etc.

How to accomplish these aims is more difficult.

Military forces need to be re-orientated away from the GWOT towards potentially countering China. It need not trigger an arms race. The US has ample forces already available. Moderate modernisation will be needed but let's not go crazy.

The US needs to extend unconditional guarantees to countries that China has set its sights on. Taiwan, The Philippines, Japan, Vietnam, etc.

Gradually, manufacturing and foreign investment needs to leave China and go elsewhere. Either in the region or to Europe, Australia, and the US. This cannot happen overnight but has already begun.

This may seem minor, but many companies are floated on the stock market in the US that are essentially paper companies that produce next to nothing. This is a ticking time bomb that needs to be diffused before it creates another 2008 style collapse.

The US must carry the burden of this effort because they are the only country that can. There is useful support that can come from the UK, Australia and Japan [perhaps others] but 90%+ of the forces needed are US forces.

This needs a 20-30 year commitment. The best results will be achieved by talking little and acting firmly. It is not a topic for domestic political points scoring.

I'm not optimistic the US has the appetite for this work. But they either have to step up or step down.

And a great example of how Australia slowly embraces Chinese Communist ways:

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An Australian student criticised his university's links with Chinese Communist Party and they are now looking at expelling him.

Most Australian universities are either reliant on Chinese money or infiltrated by Chinese.

I don't think the actions by the university are political and it's a stretch to claim Australia is embracing Chinese Communist ways.

It is wrong of course to take action against any student for protesting. It's the natural result of allowing Universities to become dependent on foreign students [in particular from China] and has other symptoms that are well documented.

This is a way the CCP buys influence in Australia and to a lesser extent in the UK and even the US.

I want to see a reduction in foreign students in all public universities with a cap of perhaps 5%. [seems to be over 20% at present in Australia].

2 – don't let China buy influence in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe or the US etc

I wonder how you do that and if it is already too late. China has bought a lot of property in the US and places like northern Italy. You know that old saying about how ‘money talks and…". There has been dirty money in politics for a long time; the swamp is immense.

True – much easier said than done.

Things could be done though. It depends on regulation and enforcement of those regulations.

Lately there has been a lot of cutting back on both in the US and UK. We are reaping the reward for that in many areas, including this.

Where China has bought strategically important land it could be repossessed with appropriate compensation. It will get ugly but better to confront China now rather than later.

The practice of lending money to poor countries then taking over land and assets when the debt cannot be serviced also needs attention.

The best way to tackle the CCP is to make it unable to rig their economy. As they fail to deliver high growth its support will crumble.

"So what?"

So Hong Kong is proof that people very different from us want the same things we do; self governance, a decent life, and to be left alone. Once your average person, no matter race, gender or creed, tastes real freedom, they want to keep it. The people of Hong Kong are a genuine threat to the CCP because if they're allowed to survive long enough for the rest of China to get a taste of real freedom, the commies won't stay in power.

The people of HK expose the lie some westerners like to tell themselves when they feel like its too expensive in men, treasure, and effort to protect infant democracies; "The Chinese, Arabs, Africans, whatever are too different from us. They like being ruled by dictators, we should stop investing our resources in protecting them because democracy will never work there.' What a load.

Dn Jackson, Hong Kong is vastly different to the mass of China and as an ex-British territory it's culture is closer to ours than the the rest of Asia.

The rest of China or indeed much of Asia doesn't care for true democracy or any thing that rocks the boat.

Even the Japanese form of democracy has meant that is had been ruled by 1 party since 1955 except for one small period in 1993-94 and a second one in 2009-12. That party is engrained into the whole political and bureaucratic system. Yet there is no real appetite for change except that little spasm in 2009-12 and then the party that won was crippled by a bureaucracy that was really an extension of the LDP.

If we care to look closely, democracy is a much scarcer commodity than many might suppose.

Recent trends in many countries have been making democracies look rather foolish. This is a tragedy.

We all have to do better in this regard. If people in China or elsewhere are going to fight for democratic rights, they need better examples to make the fight seem worthwhile.

Don't write off Asian or other peoples as 'not caring about democracy'. It's lazy and simplistic thinking. I have lived in several countries. Some democracies and some not. People all want the same things deep down. Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness is a good summation.

This could all be academic. China has hosted 3 exotic viral outbreaks in 20 years. IF, China flubs another pandemic eruption, it very well may find itself staring out at the world thru a chain link fence.

Personally, I agree with arealdeadone that China is on the verge of a great becoming. What it "becomes" is yet to be seen. It is currently stunted behind Xi's obsolete realpolitik world view. For the Chinese leadership to take credit for the Chinese economic and developmental accomplishments is like a surfer taking credit for the wave.

Xi is not an entrepreneur. He's a kleptocrat. The entrepreneurs are paying the bill's for Xi's police state. Their tolerance of him will last as long as he can deliver. If decoupling puckers their income, Xi is in deep trouble.

China is becoming. Xi, and his ilk, can either be the midwives of this becoming, or its' victims.

If you talk to the average Chinese person living in the USA, they regard the people in Hong Kong as greedy, arrogant, full of themselves to put it nicely. They give no support to their complaints.

"Dn Jackson, Hong Kong is vastly different to the mass of China and as an ex-British territory it's culture is closer to ours than the the rest of Asia.
The rest of China or indeed much of Asia doesn't care for true democracy or any thing that rocks the boat."

Yet, they are culturally, racially, and historically the same people. The obvious conclusion is that, given enough time and guidance, they would embrace democracy.

No offense, but I heard the same thing said about Eastern Europeans during the Cold War. It's pure garbage.

It certainly looks like Xi is willing to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.

Tell me 'bout the rabbits George.

Interesting. I would have thought most of you should have realized that Francis Fukuyama's "The End of History" argument that all nations will become liberal democracies is debunked by now.