 Editor in Chief Bill   | 16 Apr 2020 6:19 a.m. PST |
You rolls your dice, and you takes your chances. But on a scale of 0 (nada) to 10 (awesome), how would you rate your understanding of probability? |
 Mserafin  | 16 Apr 2020 7:31 a.m. PST |
An eight. I have a Master's in statistics, which is all probability. If I had a PhD I'd say a nine, if I were God I'd say a ten. |
| advocate | 16 Apr 2020 7:54 a.m. PST |
Compared to most folk – 8-9
Compared to Mserafin – maybe a 7 |
| Stryderg | 16 Apr 2020 8:01 a.m. PST |
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| Stryderg | 16 Apr 2020 8:03 a.m. PST |
More likely around 5 or 6. I know a foot charge uphill, through muddy fields, against well defended cannon is probably a bad idea. |
| rustymusket | 16 Apr 2020 8:32 a.m. PST |
I know it has been discussed here before and I learned but forgot what I learned, so, 1. |
| 79thPA | 16 Apr 2020 9:01 a.m. PST |
Maybe a 4 or 5. I know enough to know what a calculated risk is. |
| rmaker | 16 Apr 2020 9:23 a.m. PST |
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 etotheipi  | 16 Apr 2020 9:28 a.m. PST |
There are a lot of different topics within probability. So, in general for any given case I'd rate myself at 5+1d4. |
| ZULUPAUL | 16 Apr 2020 9:30 a.m. PST |
probably a 5 but heck even if I know I won't probably make the charge etc I'll still do it. |
| Dynaman8789 | 16 Apr 2020 9:34 a.m. PST |
10 in theory. Any particular probability depends. For example, if I need to roll a 1-5 on a D6 for an important rally roll I will roll a 6 every time. |
 Doctor X | 16 Apr 2020 9:36 a.m. PST |
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| Jeffers | 16 Apr 2020 10:23 a.m. PST |
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| Oberlindes Sol LIC | 16 Apr 2020 10:44 a.m. PST |
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| GildasFacit | 16 Apr 2020 11:39 a.m. PST |
As far as the knowledge and experience to deal with dice related calculations near enough 10. It isn't all that complicated as probability goes. Looking into other types of probability at least vaguely event related I'm less confident so only about an 8. Game theory always drew me but never really had the time to study it properly and it is too late to bother now. |
| von Schwartz | 16 Apr 2020 1:36 p.m. PST |
5-ish…accent on the "ish" |
| willthepiper | 16 Apr 2020 2:21 p.m. PST |
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| Stoppage | 16 Apr 2020 3:35 p.m. PST |
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| Yesthatphil | 16 Apr 2020 5:22 p.m. PST |
I'd have said 10 but I attended a very well researched seminar on this at the last Society of Ancients Conference and have to admit that one of my mathmatical assumptions was, in fact, slightly off (so I guess that makes me a 9 – or well I was a 9 before my weakness was exposed) … Truly this is a dull subject of which hopefully people did enough at school not to need to get too deeply into as leisure enthusiasts and historical wargamers later in life  . I guess we have to understand the basics, though, to be able to design good wargames and plausible scenarios. Phil |
| David Manley | 16 Apr 2020 7:18 p.m. PST |
I'm 99% confident that I'm 8 |
| Rudysnelson | 16 Apr 2020 8:10 p.m. PST |
10 since I teacher math for the adult education classes. Back in the 1980s, I had my son do a math project using dice. He won the regional award as a eight grader. |
| Chairtwosqueaky | 17 Apr 2020 5:48 p.m. PST |
I am not normally distributed… |
| UshCha | 18 Apr 2020 1:07 a.m. PST |
Chairtwosqueaky +2,
Me perehaps 7, enough to get the basics but the more subtle ramifications I have had to resort to Monti-Carlo techniques. |
| Thresher01 | 18 Apr 2020 11:54 a.m. PST |
Probability frequently proves to be "improbable" far too often, in my personal experience, both in gaming, AND in real life. |
| GildasFacit | 18 Apr 2020 1:34 p.m. PST |
Ah – but probability predicts HOW improbable events could be. It doesn't predict what will actually happen. As Pratchet tells us – a one in a million chance will ALWAYS happen !!!! |
| etotheipi | 19 Apr 2020 4:53 a.m. PST |
Just remember that the odds are one in a million that no one in a million odds things will happen this year. |
