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"Probability" Topic

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Personal logo Editor in Chief Bill The Editor of TMP Fezian16 Apr 2020 6:19 a.m. PST

You rolls your dice, and you takes your chances. But on a scale of 0 (nada) to 10 (awesome), how would you rate your understanding of probability?

Personal logo Mserafin Supporting Member of TMP16 Apr 2020 7:31 a.m. PST

An eight. I have a Master's in statistics, which is all probability. If I had a PhD I'd say a nine, if I were God I'd say a ten.

advocate16 Apr 2020 7:54 a.m. PST

Compared to most folk – 8-9
Compared to Mserafin – maybe a 7

Stryderg16 Apr 2020 8:01 a.m. PST

Probably 130%

Stryderg16 Apr 2020 8:03 a.m. PST

More likely around 5 or 6. I know a foot charge uphill, through muddy fields, against well defended cannon is probably a bad idea.

rustymusket16 Apr 2020 8:32 a.m. PST

I know it has been discussed here before and I learned but forgot what I learned, so, 1.

79thPA Supporting Member of TMP16 Apr 2020 9:01 a.m. PST

Maybe a 4 or 5. I know enough to know what a calculated risk is.

rmaker16 Apr 2020 9:23 a.m. PST


Personal logo etotheipi Sponsoring Member of TMP16 Apr 2020 9:28 a.m. PST

There are a lot of different topics within probability. So, in general for any given case I'd rate myself at 5+1d4.

ZULUPAUL Supporting Member of TMP16 Apr 2020 9:30 a.m. PST

probably a 5 but heck even if I know I won't probably make the charge etc I'll still do it.

Dynaman878916 Apr 2020 9:34 a.m. PST

10 in theory. Any particular probability depends. For example, if I need to roll a 1-5 on a D6 for an important rally roll I will roll a 6 every time.

Personal logo Doctor X Supporting Member of TMP16 Apr 2020 9:36 a.m. PST


Jeffers16 Apr 2020 10:23 a.m. PST


Oberlindes Sol LIC Supporting Member of TMP16 Apr 2020 10:44 a.m. PST

etotheipi for the win.

GildasFacit Sponsoring Member of TMP16 Apr 2020 11:39 a.m. PST

As far as the knowledge and experience to deal with dice related calculations near enough 10. It isn't all that complicated as probability goes.

Looking into other types of probability at least vaguely event related I'm less confident so only about an 8.

Game theory always drew me but never really had the time to study it properly and it is too late to bother now.

von Schwartz16 Apr 2020 1:36 p.m. PST

5-ish…accent on the "ish"

willthepiper16 Apr 2020 2:21 p.m. PST
Stoppage16 Apr 2020 3:35 p.m. PST

Brain: 6
Behaviour: -1

Yesthatphil16 Apr 2020 5:22 p.m. PST

I'd have said 10 but I attended a very well researched seminar on this at the last Society of Ancients Conference and have to admit that one of my mathmatical assumptions was, in fact, slightly off (so I guess that makes me a 9 – or well I was a 9 before my weakness was exposed) …

Truly this is a dull subject of which hopefully people did enough at school not to need to get too deeply into as leisure enthusiasts and historical wargamers later in life wink.

I guess we have to understand the basics, though, to be able to design good wargames and plausible scenarios.


David Manley16 Apr 2020 7:18 p.m. PST

I'm 99% confident that I'm 8

RudyNelson16 Apr 2020 8:10 p.m. PST

10 since I teacher math for the adult education classes. Back in the 1980s, I had my son do a math project using dice. He won the regional award as a eight grader.

Chairtwosqueaky17 Apr 2020 5:48 p.m. PST

I am not normally distributed…

UshCha18 Apr 2020 1:07 a.m. PST

Chairtwosqueaky +2,
Me perehaps 7, enough to get the basics but the more subtle ramifications I have had to resort to Monti-Carlo techniques.

Thresher01 Supporting Member of TMP18 Apr 2020 11:54 a.m. PST

Probability frequently proves to be "improbable" far too often, in my personal experience, both in gaming, AND in real life.

GildasFacit Sponsoring Member of TMP18 Apr 2020 1:34 p.m. PST

Ah – but probability predicts HOW improbable events could be. It doesn't predict what will actually happen.

As Pratchet tells us – a one in a million chance will ALWAYS happen !!!!

Personal logo etotheipi Sponsoring Member of TMP19 Apr 2020 4:53 a.m. PST

Just remember that the odds are one in a million that no one in a million odds things will happen this year.

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