"Japan attacks Dutch and Brits in October 1940" Topic

"What if Japan had decided during the Imperial Liaison conference in July 1940 to move into SE Asia as soon as possible in October 1940. In October 1940 the US had no interest in intervening in WWII, so soon after the defeat of France and Roosevelt made promises during the Presidential campaign to keep the US out of the War. The US Congress had authorized Two Ocean navy and Conscription in June 1940. The longer Japan waits to attack the worse position it will be in. If Japan intends to ever seize the Southern Resource area it should do so as soon as possible. Japan relies on 95% percent of oil from the US and will have to bow to US ultimatum if it does not secure an oil supply. The US and Russia will be deterred from intervening by Japan's alliance with Germany and Italy. Attacking Britain will force WII to end more quickly. Similarly cutting off China from western supplies by occupying Burma will speed the end of the China incident. Waiting for Germany to defeat Britain as Japan originally intended would have had have little effect on US posture in Pacific because, Britain's' navy could continue the fight from Canada. Also if Britain obtains a negotiated peace with Germany Japan will be in worse position because Britain will have a free hand in the Pacific. If Britain is removed from Southeast Asia Japan will be in a better strategic position vis-a-vis the United States.

A successful attack on SE Asia in October 1940 would have serious butterflies, such as potentially Spain and the Soviet joining the Axis to attack Britain or even a successful Italian advance on Egypt if forces are diverted by Britain to SE Asia. Britain would likely seek a negotiated peace before the end of 1941…"
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Amicalement
Armand

Hmmm ? Maybe …

Interesting idea.

(smile)

Amicalement
Armand