"Wellington's "Other side of the hill" quote?" Topic

"All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavor to find out what you don't know by what you do; that's what I called 'guessing what was at the other side of the hill.'"

How would you interpret this enigmatic quote, made after the Napoleonic Wars (not sure when)? What insights does it offer into this great man's approach to war?

To find out what is on the other side of the hill is the job of military intelligence. All military operations plans begin with intelligence.

Taking an educated guess at what the enemy will do and then making sure you're right by doing proper reconnaissance?

As Glengarry 5 says using the information that you do have to make educated guesses or deductions, but also using what you do know to figure out what else you have to find out.

Wellington was strong on reconnaissance in the Peninsula. But I hadn't really considered the quote before, which is about being able to draw the correct conclusions based on the limited amount of data points that even the best intelligence can provide.

This is surely more about epistemology….the science of knowledge. The old Rumsfeld quote about things we know we know etc. Also the quote about things we can change. God give me the grace to etc…. and the wisdom to tell them apart.

Folk often joke about Donald R's famous speech, but there is much more substance to it than many allow.

Please don't overlook the phrase about "all the business of life". Wellington was writing, or speaking, in his own time ( of course), and would be as aware of contemporary thinking as any educated person is today about, say, "climate change". That is, we all know a bit about current thought, some much more than others ( again, "of course"). Wellington seems to me to be alluding to Enlightenment thought, to Empiricism, to the practice of deducing more and more about the Natural World from what knowledge Humanity had built over centuries. This may seem a bit far-fetched, but I'll just give two specific and relevant examples, in addition to repeating the earlier points about everyone knowing at least something about current thinking. First, Sir Humphry Davy, and later Michael Faraday, gave lectures in London about Chemistry, these being very popular among "polite society" (I wouldn't be at all surprised if Wellington had attended). Davy referred specifically to advances in metallurgy and consequent improvements in artillery, with benefits to what we'd call "national security". Secondly, during the eighteenth century, significant advances in the treatment of battlefield wounds were made by the Scottish surgeon John Hunter. Again, all part of the rational approach of observing, analysing, experimenting &c &c. Not suggesting that Wellington was greatly interested in all this, just that it's a pervasive aspect of contemporary thought.

Then again, he's better known as a general than as a thinker, or even as a (Tory) politician! If you've had the patience to read thus far, I'll just add that one line of thought about Tory, and then Conservative, policy in Britain has been to defend the status quo for as long as possible, only relinquishing a little bit of power when absolutely necessary to preserve Privilege longer. A defensive position. Remind you of anyone? Good Luck.

I wonder what some Enlightenment philosophers would have made of "known unknowns" and so on?

The "unknown unknowns" comes from Johari's window.

link

I thought the key word was 'guessing</i.'

Yeah, I guess so. But an educated guess, based on experience, observation….

I thought Rumsfeld's observation was a good attempt at summarising a tricky situation.