"Why War With China Is a Terrible Idea" Topic

"Key Point: While it is possible for one side to win without the conflict going nuclear, there's no way to be sure. Keeping the peace will be a difficult and vital task.

The United States and China are inextricably locked in the Pacific Rim's system of international trade. Some argue that this makes war impossible, but then while some believed World War I inevitable, but others similarly thought it impossible.

In this article, I concentrate less on the operational and tactical details of a US-China war, and more on the strategic objectives of the major combatants before, during, and after the conflict. A war between the United States and China would transform some aspects of the geopolitics of East Asia, but would also leave many crucial factors unchanged. Tragically, a conflict between China and the US might be remembered only as "The First Sino-American War."…"
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Amicalement
Armand

I do not think keeping the peace with China will be difficult unless they invade Taiwan.
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The gifting of the South China Sea to the PRC without a single shot fired is proof that the USA and the West will give in to China before they consider even modest diplomatic action, let alone economic action. Military action by the West is totally inconceivable here.

I suspect the US and Europe would sooner withdraw completely and let China rule Asia than confront it. In fact the Europeans like the Australians before them long to have China control them economically even more (ie Chinese inveetment).

In the future all roads will lead to Beijing under current trends.

I do find these analyses hilarious. All make the same assumptions and usually assume the other guy (be they China or Russia) to be completely predictable when in fact their actions have been unpredictable.

The other assumption is US military prowess which is mainly based on blowing up third world insurgents. Last time US faced foe even remotely technically and tactically capable was Korea.

The problems the USN is experiencing (eg ship collisions, low serviceability, declining ship numbers) show a force that is worn out with eroded standards.

The other thing that is assumed is USA will act like it still the Cold War. The expansion of PRC into South China Sea shows that the US is now willing to let peer competitors threaten key trade routes it dominated up recently. US actions in Ukraine, Syria and Yemen show that it is no longer proactive or willing to retain the initiative.

Actions against Iran show US is unwillingly to materially engage even with a third rate power that lobs missiles at US bases and attacks ships and oil installations in the region. This wasn't even tolerated in the 1980s butnow is acceptble.

The greatest army in the world isn't worth a pinch of excrement unless you are williing to use it (and low lying insurgent fruit doesn't count)

We had our chance to go to war with China in the 1950s when Chinese troops poured into Korea attacking and killing US troops. I think General MacArthur wanted to do something about it and got fired. Easy enough to start a land war in Asia; difficult to successfully finish one.

To quote a certain comic book character, "with great power comes great responsibilities." Or rather ambitions in the case of China. Just as the US dominated its environs and the waters of the Atlantic and western Pacific with its system of trade and commerce, it should come as little surprise that the emerging dragon of the Orient would seek to do the same in hers.

Great powers come and go or get supplanted over time, whether we're talking about the Romans (Pax Romana) or the British (Pax Brittanica). It's an inevitability that China will supplant the US the same way the US supplanted the British after WWII. Whether we choose to accept it peacefully or not is entirely up to us.

Whether we choose to accept it peacefully or not is entirely up to us.

In the end the question will be whether liberal democracy (or even illiberal democracy the way some places are going) is worth fighting for.

I, for one, welcome our new social credit system overlords!

They come in peace. And bring free (re)education for everyone. LOL

(smile)

Amicalement
Armand

Australia is already eagerly re-configuring legal protections to make them more compatible with China.

We now have police raiding media organisations, government able to spy on anyone, government whistleblowers facing 161 year in gaol for revealing government wrong doings and even a secret prisoner tried, and jailed in secret.

I'm sure President Xi Jinping sheds a little tear of happiness when he sees the progress his new Australian acquisition is making.

Unlike liberal democracies China's foreign policy is underpinned by Realpolitik rather than Idealpolitik. There are no strings attached such as democratization or human rights. It's simple, transactional and amoral (as opposed to immoral).

Good point Fanatik. The Chinese also maintain strong control of their private sector so it can be used as a tool of influence and control.

We now have police raiding media organisations, government able to spy on anyone, government whistleblowers facing 161 year in gaol for revealing government wrong doings and even a secret prisoner tried, and jailed in secret

I think you have it wrong mate. Journalists are not above the law, and equality before the law is a core Western liberal value. And lets face it, allowing anyone to leak defence secrets to journos without being investigated doesn't do what remains of our defences much good!

LT Sparker, the journalists were raided for investigating things like alleged war crimes by Australian troops and potential new laws that would curtail individual freedoms even more.

If people think it is Ok to destroy freedom of press for supposed national security, then they are open to dictatorship.

Australia is no longer considered an open democracy by independent observers. It is now classed as narrowed democracy.

National security is increasingly being used to destroy freedom and rights (and remember unlike USA, Australia has no bill of rights).

Meanwhile politicians get away with all manner of corruption yet no action is taken even when that corruption compromises national security (e.g. leasing of Darwin port to Chinese for 99 years whilst the minister involved in the agreement got a lucrative job with the Chinese company).

So much for bring equal in the eyes of the law.

It's not just China and Australia. After 9/11 western governments in the name of safeguarding our national security and the "public good" have been empowered as never before in curtailing personal liberties and to take pre-emptive action against perceived enemies of the state. Never mind our privacy. It's the price of doing business in today's world I suppose.