"COVID-19 Fears and Wargaming" Topic

Actually it is more like 60,000 to 80,000 die from flu in the US per season.

"As many as 61,000 people died in the 2017-2018 flu season, and 45 million were infected."

I liked the Cold Wars staff message I got today. Acknowledged the risk but in a calm and reasonable way, while stating some steps they were taking. Kudos to Heather and staff.

I'm not sure the BBC understands US health care

So Very true, the VP & POTUS talked today in the media to us. Basically saying if the Gov't will pay for care for someone who gets COVID-19 if they don't have health insurance, etc.,. Or work with the insurance companies to take care of the cost, etc.

An indicator of the fact that COVID-19 is not the plague that some feared. The markets went Very Green gaining about 1/2 of what it lost yesterday. I think by the end of the week it will be making big gains again.

In six months or a year, we'll know.

I'll give it less than that.

Actually it is more like 60,000 to 80,000 die from flu in the US per season.

I have heard directly from doctors and nurses in the media or at the VA. The figure is 20,000-40,000 on average. Never heard anything from anywhere that claims 60,000-80,000 as an accurate number. That seems pretty high, IMO. Add all the other diseases, tobacco, alcohol, drugs, car accidents, etc., etc., that kill people in the US … We'd have to start baby mills and/or clones to keep our population from going extinct !

Acknowledged the risk but in a calm and reasonable way, while stating some steps they were taking.

I think that is what is occurring. But headlines like that don't sell.

Starting to remind me of Y2K. Some stocking up for the End Times … that didn't come.

I got the email too, planning on going, just take precautions like for any communicable diseases

The Coronavirus epidemic is going to get a whole lot worse before it gets any better. If you focus on the absolute number of cases in the US, you miss the forest for the trees. It's not the numbers today, it's the numbers next week and the week after that. The numbers are increasing at an exponential rate. Look at the way the numbers went up in China. Look at how the numbers went up in Italy. And look at what those countries had to do in an effort to bring it under control.

The only way to slow the epidemic down is through "social distancing". And I'm not talking about fist-bumping instead of shaking hands. I'm talking about canceling events that bring significant numbers of people together in one space. Sporting events, classes, and yes, Cold Wars. I can't imagine a better way to spread the virus than to bring people together from across the East Coast and Midwest, let them mix and interact for 2 days, then send them back to their home communities.

This isn't about whether we, as individuals, are going to be. Most of us will get through the infection ok. It's about how we weather the storm as a society. Whether the healthcare system gets overwhelmed. Whether we slow the spread of the virus enough to find better ways to treat it and eventually, create a vaccine.

Canceling events like these isn't the only step we need to take, but it's an important part of slowing this virus. Canceling Cold Wars is the responsible thing to do.

I respectfully disagree, El Jocko.

All cancelling Cold Wars would do is keep a few gamers home. Some would remain in higher threat areas if they stayed home. I'm happy to spend a few days in Amish Country. Besides, the time to cancel the convention has passed.

Meanwhile, nobody's cancelled other larger events. For example, March Madness, the ACC and Big East Tournaments all proceed apace. I know, I'll be at two of the three, in addition to Cold Wars.

Once Cold Wars is over, HMGS, like other groups, can re-evaluate going forward. The issue will be what to do, if anything, about Historicon in July.

We'll see.

P.S.--FYI, from another topic on TMP, Salute in the UK is still going forward as planned.

So, I work for a pharma that is now in the process of producing millions of testing units. Our precautions are pretty strict, but we have the requirement to stay in operation. If you have any underling medical problems and are elderly, I would recommend you skip this convention. For everyone else, use hand sanitizer and enjoy life! Yes it's pretty contagious, but not life threatening unless you have underlining medical issues like I said. See you there!

A few days in the Amish country sounds nice. I'd just stay away from barn-raisings, crowds of Amish there I expect.

You're right that a lot of events are still going on, but some significant ones are being canceled too. The Boston St. Patty's Day Parade, the Ivy League basketball tournament, the South-by-Southwest festival, just to name some of the bigger ones in the US. I'd wouldn't be surprised if the NCAA basketball tournament is played without any fans in the seats. If this plays out the way the experts are suggesting it will, we're in for a very bad time.

I'd wouldn't be surprised if the NCAA basketball tournament is played without any fans in the seats.

The NCAA putting safety above profit? I'll believe it when I see it.

I watched the press conference today with Mike Pense in charge, with a whole host of experts with him. Seemed pretty much in control of the situation. Yes NY engaged the National Guard, but for what? We are not like China, where 75% smoke and have the worst smog in the world. Look at the statistics. Most deaths in the US came from Washington State at a nursing home. Right now we are in the Twilight Zone. Nobody really knows, but my sence is this is being a bit blown out of proportion for the risk it really is. If you are risk adverse, just stay home, simple as that. But for adventurers, let the wargames begin!

Im up in the air. Planned on running a huge game but is the risk of people handling the dice figures worth it? Also my wife is a severe asthmatic, do I risk bringing anything home to her? Dont let arrogance cloud your judgment…

I also respectfully disagree, El Jocko. So far, China has reported about 3,000 deaths from COVID-19 in a population of about 1.5 billion. Let's say they are under-reporting their deaths by 100%---that means 6K in 1.5B. All in all, pretty low numbers. And the US has a much lower population of about 333 million. It's a flu, people, and it's killing people pretty much like the regular flu, except this one doesn't seem to be killing kids or healthy adults.

Social distancing is like quarantine. Neither works in the long term to stop the spread of a virus--it just slows it down and gives time for countermeasures to be developed and for the health system to cope.

OK, had to check. The H1N1 pandemic back in 2009-2010 caused about 113,000 cases in the US with about 3,400 deaths, according to Wiki). And that strain of flu was bad for children. Don't remember it causing the angst and uncertainty that this one is. I don't recall talking about cancelling wargame conventions back then?

I plan on attending Cold Wars. Never even considered not going. Had my regular flu shot. Will be washing hands and wearing my "lab coat".

Heck, the last couple of cons at the Host were already like surviving the apocalypse, trying to navigate thru the debris filled parking lots, march to the vendor hall, halls and rooms falling apart, closed rest rooms, I made it thru all that. I'm a survivor.

Acceptable alternatives to shaking hands:

1) Elbow bump – currently very hip

2) Japanese bow – my personal choice

3) Simple nod of head – yeah, I know you're there, so go away now

4) The Spock hand jive – "live long and prosper"

From the CDC web site:

CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

link

OK, had to check. The H1N1 pandemic back in 2009-2010 caused about 113,000 cases in the US with about 3,400 deaths, according to Wiki). And that strain of flu was bad for children. Don't remember it causing the angst and uncertainty that this one is. I don't recall talking about cancelling wargame conventions back then?

Exactly! This is like some sort of bizarre World War Z thing. And what is with the toilet paper. People nearly killed to take a dump. Wow.

I am not sure what is causing all this. Although on a media web site the other day they had an article about survival and apocalypse and stuff. You can't make this up.

One of the issues is one can be infected and not know it. But if you are feel a just a little bit off maybe you might sit this one out.

A chart from a "Time" article using CDC and WHO data shows the mortality rate is currently estimated as 34 times that of a routine flu (3.4 vs. 0.1). Put plainly, you are 34 times more likely to die from corona virus than a run-of-the-mill flu.

link

About 34,200 folks died of the flu last year in the United States. If the corona virus spreads at all in a similar way, you are looking at around 1.3 million deaths in the United States if the government doesn't act to contain this. In fact, that number is probably far too low because the capacity of our current medical infrastructure (ICU beds, ventilators, etc.) will be overwhelmed at the current rate of infection growth. This is the inflection point experts are concerned about. When that happens, you're going to see death rates surge past 1.3 million.

The IMF/World Bank cancelled its spring meetings because of this, and the IMF just created a $50 USD billion special emergency Fund to help countries deal with the economic strains that are going to result.

Keep making jokes about grocery stores selling out of toilet paper, but this is likely going to get far worse before it gets better.

Thanks Bibliophile,

Look Gents there is no need to panic and panic buying toilet rolls is just crazy but this is serious, just blowing it off as the Flu is not what this is…

Governments DO NOT close their own country down for the hell of it. The economic damage is massive. Italy is really suffering and their medical system is barely holding up.

This link gives you a good comparison vs the Flu. So if you want to understand the difference from a pretty good medical POV have a look…

link

Each person needs to assess their own risk and circumstances and if you have any contact with High Risk groups you might want to consider them if you pass this virus on to them.

It sucks and I am hoping to be in Florida in April for Recon but I fully expect the UK to be put in lock down and Florida with all it's elderly is a time bomb for this potential Pandemic.

Once the medical systems start to get over loaded even if you are not affected by the virus hope you don't need any medical treatment fast as the hospitals will be pretty busy and any non urgent treatment will just not be dealt with.

You need to remember that it is not just the dead that will tie the health system up. The extra percentage of people who need care to recover is the thing to note, so the death percentage is not the full story it is the percentage needing medical treatment, hitting a hospital system already at capacity.

So no panic but be aware of what is happening and why some Governments are taking this deadly seriously.

On one of my area's local talk radio stations this morning,someone brought up the possibility of cancellation of the MLB Opening Day baseball games and parades. Seattle has reportedly banned all gatherings of 200-300 people ,or so I heard. Hopefully someone from Seattle can help clear this story up.

The charts in the time link are skewed. The Covid-19 chart is world wide (as is the MERS and SARS) and the flu chart is the US only.

So after some googling, I found countless news articles stating that Covid-19 is 3.4% and flu is 0.1%. BUT this is apples to oranges (world vs USA). So it goes to show how misinformation is spread.

I'm not saying don't pay attention to this or don't stay informed, just be certain of what you are reading. And stop stockpiling the TP already!

Phrodon:

Here's the only way that matters in which that chart's statistics are an apples-to-oranges comparison: The United States is even less prepared than these other countries. We have only tested around 8,500 people for coronavirus, compared to South Korea who has tested 200,000. We have far less of a handle on the profile of how this virus is spreading and thus how to address it within the U.S. than do other countries like China, Korea, and Taiwan.

I'm not sure what comfort you're taking from the point you're making.

A chart from a "Time" article using CDC and WHO data shows the mortality rate is currently estimated as 34 times that of a routine flu (3.4 vs. 0.1). Put plainly, you are 34 times more likely to die from corona virus than a run-of-the-mill flu.

That is not what the stats mean.

The mortality rate of diagnosed flu is 0.01% and the mortality rate of diagnosed COVID-19 is 3.4%.

However, if you get COVID-19 and don't spike a fever, you will never be diagnosed as having COVID-19. And if you go to the doctor with a mild fever and don't have a bacterial infection, you will probably be diagnosed with flu.

COVID-19 is a specific diagnosis that can only be achieved with a DNA test that costs more and takes longer than a general diagnosis of the flu. If you're not at risk for needing disease specific treatment, doctors won't push for a disease specific diagnosis.

So, lower unnecessary referrals to specific testing lead to higher mortality rates in specifically diagnosed diseases.

The flu data is also supplemented by years of (scientific medical) poll of people who don't bother to go for treatment, which adds large numbers of non-fatal "diagnosed" flu cases, further reducing the diagnosed mortality rate.

We have far less of a handle on the profile of how this virus is spreading and thus how to address it within the U.S. than do other countries like China, Korea, and Taiwan.

This is only relevant if you consider the number of post-fatality diagnoses for people who never went in for treatment.

Your analysis above has nothing to do with the charts. The charts are a mortality rate (world vs US). Your making a point about the US testing and preparedness. Not sure what the two have to do with each other. Other than the fact that the USA's confirmed cases stats (about 1200) is probably low due to poor testing.

The link in holien's post has better stats.

I thought the 3.4% mortality stat was of people ill enough to require hospitalization, not the populace at large. Is my info stale?

So no panic but be aware of what is happening and why some Governments are taking this deadly seriously.

I agree …

And as pointed out the and I also agree …

I watched the press conference today with Mike Pense in charge, with a whole host of experts with him. Seemed pretty much in control of the situation. Yes NY engaged the National Guard, but for what? We are not like China, where 75% smoke and have the worst smog in the world. Look at the statistics. Most deaths in the US came from Washington State at a nursing home. Right now we are in the Twilight Zone. Nobody really knows, but my sence is this is being a bit blown out of proportion for the risk it really is

The United States is even less prepared than these other countries

I don't think we were that unprepared. And as noted, I think we have reacted well and things seem to be under control or very close.

And yes no doubt more will die worldwide from COVID-19. But I think as time goes on we will even get more control over the situation. The CDC looks every year for another virus, etc., that will show up and start something like the 1918 "Spanish" flu. So no one is sitting idle.

Again I think we got this … But just like when we'd parachute out of aircraft when I was in the Army. We always had a reserve chute … just in case.

I went to the VA clinic today for a scheduled appointment. They had a screening when you went into the building. And have two Quarantine rooms if need be … They asked me if I had been to South Korea in the past two weeks. I replied, I left Korea in '85 and I ain't going back.

It is interesting to go back to the beginning of this thread and read all of the "it's no big deal" comments and then compare them to up to date information and events as of today:

NBA has suspended all games indefinitely
NCAA March Madness Basketball Tourney will be played without spectators

Around 100 American universities are switching to video/online classes only

Several states have banned public gatherings of more than 250 people.

And so on and so forth.

Things to remember: Covid19 is not like the flu, it is more contagious and there is, so far, no vaccine whereas flu does have vaccines. Also, there are medicines that work on the flu whereas there are few that stop Covid19.

Registered yesterday so going to fight off whatever communicable diseases out there.

Things to remember: Covid19 is not like the flu, it is more contagious and there is, so far, no vaccine whereas flu does have vaccines. Also, there are medicines that work on the flu whereas there are few that stop Covid19.

@Der Alte Fritz-spot on.

And we can now add to the list flights from Europe to the US. The list will, undoubtedly, grow.

I thought the 3.4% mortality stat was of people ill enough to require hospitalization, not the populace at large. Is my info stale?

Close. It's the people who presented symptoms that put them at risk for severe effects. Those are the only people who get tested.

But yes, the denominator of the tested is not comparable to the denominator of people diagnosed with flu who have zero specific diagnostic testing. So the rates are not comparable in that way.

Other than the fact that the USA's confirmed cases stats (about 1200) is probably low due to poor testing.

The number of confirmed cases is low due to well focused testing. If you have a lot of negatives in this type of specific testing, it means you are testing a lot of people who didn't need testing.

Inadequate testing would be evidenced when you have a lot of people who requested assistance, subsequently died, and were never tested or tested too late while receiving assistance.

Here is a nice opinion piece written by Dr. Abdhu Sharkawy, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Toronto. It's being published by various news agencies in both Canada and the US.

link

So not all the press is fanning the flames of panic.

I know its going to be very disruptive, but I'm kinda thinking we should cancel this con. I'm not coming Friday anymore, and the only think giving me pause is I really wanted to unload some stuff at Wally's basement.

Is a decision to cancel coming?

it is kind of late to unilaterally cancel the con. People are already there.

Etotheipi:

That is not what the stats mean.

That actually is exactly what those stats mean.

What you are arguing is whether the numerators and denominators are in fact accurate.

You and I can speculate and offer suppositions all day as to whether they are accurate and by how much (I'm presuming neither of us in an actual infectious disease researcher), but the data that we actually have in hand that I cited leads to the conclusion I put forth. The data would have to be off by several orders of magnitude to change the conclusion significantly.

Find some genuinely better data, and make your own conclusions. At the moment, you're just offering a rationale for why you think the denominators and numerators in that data are skewed.

Our dinner/meeting at the local USAFR base for tonight was cancelled as there were few RSVPs. In concern about COVID-19. Many of us are over 60 … so …

"it is kind of late to unilaterally cancel the con. People are already there."

Makes me wonder about attendance and game participation? Will be curious to hear the early returns on TMP.

I thought this was really interesting. Some cool stats.

link

This comment sums it up for me.

There are good news stories but Toilet Paper Fights get far more clicks.

This is the end game for the Host. Our final appearance, and everyone catches the plague and makes a con save vs death after years inundating us with traps like faulty stairs and elevators, poorly maintained plumbing, and the dreaded killer mold.

But seriously, my mother asked me not to go and if I wasn't running two games and helping with two more I'd reconsider going at this point. What attendance will look like is anyone's guess but I expect games will be light and spending in the dealer hall will take a huge hit.

I hope the situation changes for the better in the next few months because I don't know how well HMGS can weather cancelling its most important convention Historicon.

Serious question. With everyone touching figures, should people bring gloves? What about disinfecting them without ruining paint/basing?

I'm not coming Friday anymore,…

I was all set to attend Saturday with three other gamers from the area. We decided it was best to skip Cold Wars this year. Playing with toy soldiers is just not worth the risk of contracting the virus (as remote a chance as it may be at this point), especially with so many gamers around who are not really known for their hygiene.

Just had an live update from UK Govt health team.

Best estimate of peak is 10 to 14 weeks away and UK about 4 weeks behind Italy.

Not looking good for any shows.

I can imagine my flights to Florida in April and Lancaster in July will likely be blocked from the US if the numbers escalate as estimated.

"And stop stockpiling the TP already!"

I'm still working through my current hoard. Though I'll restock if the prices drop…

Hope 47Ronin enjoys attending his sporting events…you know. The ones continuing apace.

Saw on newsfeed earlier that a UK Govt Scientific advisor was saying that this virus could become an annual event, at least until we've built up a bodily immunity to it. So much for pinning hopes on a vaccine then.
Of course the big word in all that was, "Could".

Update from China on COVID-19 …

link

Yeah right !

Public disquiet in China over how their Govt have handled this, especially from residents of Wuhan, so China is trying to point the finger elsewhere in the hope their sheeple will believe them.

Seasonal flu virus is a annual event, kills 10s of thousands every year.

Keep calm and carry on painting 15mm ancients!

Seasonal flu virus is a annual event, kills 10s of thousands every year.

Myth: The coronavirus is less deadly than the flu
"So far, it appears the coronavirus is more deadly than the flu. However, there's still a lot of uncertainty around the mortality rate of the virus. The annual flu typically has a mortality rate of around 0.1% in the U.S. So far, there's a 0.05% mortality rate among those who caught the flu virus in the U.S. this year, according to the CDC."

"In comparison, recent data suggests that COVID-19 has a mortality rate more than 20 times higher, of around 2.3%, according to a study published Feb. 18 by the China CDC Weekly. The death rate varied by different factors such as location and an individual's age, according to a previous Live Science report."

"But these numbers are continuously evolving and may not represent the actual mortality rate. It's not clear if the case counts in China are accurately documented, especially since they shifted the way they defined cases midway through, according to STAT News. There could be many mild or asymptomatic cases that weren't counted in the total sample size, they wrote. "

link