"Vietnam Hopes China ‘Will Show Restraint’ On The..." Topic

… Issue Of The South China Sea In 2020.

"Vietnam said it hoped China would show restraint in the South China Sea next year after a Chinese oil survey vessel and its escorts spent months within Vietnam's exclusive economic zone, which Hanoi regarded as a blatant violation of its sovereignty.

Vietnam, the region's most forceful challenger of China's extensive maritime claims to the busy waterway, will take on the rotating chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) in 2020.

"I hope that during our chairmanship China will show restraint and refrain from these activities," Vietnam's deputy foreign minister, Nguyen Quoc Dung, said at a lecture at The Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. "What China did is very alarming and also kind of threatening not only Vietnam but also other countries that see the potential of being threatened in the future."…."
Main page
link

Maybe…someone should tell Vietnam that hope is not a strategy.

Amicalement
Armand

Well, well, well --you mean to tell me that the hand that fed you really sometimes does bite you ???

Ha, ha, ha……..!!!

Thanks for the laugh tonight.

(smile)

Amicalement
Armand

Well, they did take on the Chinese back 1979 and had a number of big fights up until 1989.

China will strike Vietnam sometime.

Major Mike, the 1979 war and 1980s occupation of Cambodia were a long time ago. All those veterans are long retired.

The Chinese have grown immensely in terms of capability, especially air and naval as well as electronic warfare.

Vietnam has invested heavily in these capabilities but their forces are still miniscule relative to the Chinese:

6 x Kilo class subs (their main strike force.
4 Gepard class frigates (1500 ton ships so also can be categorised as corvettes)
2 x South Korean Pohang class corvettes.

48 x Su-27/-30 Flankers (at least 2 lost since)
12 x S300 SAM launcher

Overall their airforce is shrinking – there was once over 200 combat aircraft based on MiG-21Bis (superior to Chinese aircraft ala J6 and early model J7 at the time) and Su-22. Now there is 80 aircraft including 34 ageing Su-22s and 46 more modern Su-27/30s.

The Chinese operates hundreds of Flanker derivatives as well as several hundred J-10s (based on Israeli IAI Lavi) and have inducted J-20 stealth interceptors. There's also other modern aircraft ala JH-7 (similar to Tornado) and hundreds of modernised J-7s (MiG-21) and J-8 interceptors.

The Chinese also operate a large AWACS fleet whilst Vietnam have none.

The PLAN is officially a monster with 30 destroyers, 50 frigates, 40+ large corvettes and nearly 70 submarines (oh and two aircraft carriers). Most of these ships are modern with older ones being scrapped or sold off/donated.

The Vietnamese army has been largely neglected in favour of upgrading the navy and airforce. It's main tanks are still based on T55 and T62 with a mere 64 T90s acquired.

The PLA has on the other hand gone through a massive upgrade and now boasts large numbers of modern tanks as well as a large fleet of attack helicopters.

The PLA has been conducting exercises with western style forces including Turkey, Thailand and Pakistan as well as large scale exercises with Russia.

It is thus questionable how much Vietnam could do to stop the Chinese without massive assistance from else where.

You make it sound like Vietnam vs. the U.S. during the last century. That said, China has one other advantage that you pointed out at the end. Who would come to the aid of Vietnam?

Except in the Vietnam War, the North Vietnamese had considerable help from USSR and China, South Vietnam was politically unstable and the US limited its action by not invading North Vietnam. Also the Vietnamese had many experienced commanders and veterans who had waged insurgency warfare against Japanese and French and the anti-US insurgency effectively plugged into pre-existing networks.

Thus the North Vietnamese could easily fuel a massive insurgency without threat of the North Vietnamese regime being overthrown.

Vietnam in 2020 is a different place. They have no real ally (Russians sell them weapons but that's it). If a war starts, the Chinese aren't restricted at all.

And there is no cadre of experienced guerrilla fighters or preexisting insurgency networks.

Instead you have a military that is largely based on a Soviet model. Additionally the capital Hanoi is well within reach of the Chinese (300 odd kilometres). The Vietnamese are partially saved by poor roads but they've actually built a couple of express ways to China and are building more.

Plus the Chinese effectively surround Vietnam on 2 flanks due to Hainan Island which makes deployment of Vietnamese naval assets difficult and also allows China to easily interdict any troop movements from south to north.

arealdeadone wrote:

South Vietnam was politically unstable

Beautifully phrased! ,-)