"Historicon 2019 turnout, and how much does it matter?" Topic

The figures are all on the HMGS website now:

hmgs.org/page/HconArchive

2007 3,272 Host
2008 3,667 Host
2009 3,565 Host
2010 2,980 VFCC
2011 2,946 VFCC
2012 2,720 Fredericksburg
2013 2,727 Fredericksburg
2014 2,441 Fredericksburg
2015 2,450 Fredericksburg
2016 2,336 Fredericksburg
2017 2,342 Fredericksburg
2018 2,523 Host
2019 2,272 LCC

So. 2272 is the "official" figure?

We moved from Fredericksburg because everyone was sqwaking about attendance. Well it didn't get any better at the HOST nor even in this awesome venue

2017 Fredericksburg – 2,342
2018 Host 2,523

Correct my math, but isn't 2523 > 2342??

Seems like with the way we're trending soon we'll be able to take it to the next level in a smaller venue than we could fit in before.

2272 may go up or down by a few but that's very close.I also had to revise last year's down by about 10. (Yay, people go to the website!) It's hard to point to any one thing that causes attendance fluctuations but generally it's my opinion that a lateral move will cause a decline.

Gen Con's move from Milwaukee (I was working that show at the time as a Registration Senior Volunteer) moved to a much larger facility in a location more easily accessible to a larger population.

I'll be in Lancaster next week for a post-show wrap up with the LCCC and our first pre-show meeting for 2020. The AAR to them membership will go out next week I suspect after that meeting. It will officially announce the numbers and we expect to be able to announce the room block opening in it. Going forward the room block should be set up at the end of the previous show but this year we had a cancellation clause we had to address that caused us to delay it.

I can give you all a little bit of an update now on the prep for next year. John Spiess and I have already added the 100 extra rooms available in the new tower to the block next year (we could only get additional space at the Holiday Inn this year because Marriott is renovating rooms in the old tower). We've also made sure we've gotten the rest of the event space going forward as well. Thanks John!

Load in and load out is on the slate as well. Some of that is on us. It appears some volunteers weren't adequately trained for the new location. As we all get more acclimated to the LCCC that will improve. The loading spots outside the LCCC main entrance weren't kept clear when we didn't have them reserved. If they can't guarantee us better handling of that situation we'll reserve those spots for the whole show. Some people had no trouble and some had trouble. We'll make improvements to try to smooth those rough spots to the extent that we can and we're listening to input from those that want to share to make the experience the easiest we can for the majority but we won't be able cater to everyone's personal opinions as to how that will work.

For those that parked in the Steinman Park garage (formerly the Central garage) that didn't go smoothly and it will be discussed.

With the additional space we'll also be able to address the cramped gaming space next year and use some of the airwalls.

Those seemed to be the biggest issues. I'll see you all at Fall In where I'll be happy to speak with you all about Historicon 2020 and beyond.

Thanks to everyone that came out to the show this year and for all the feedback.
Joby

FCC had similar attendance numbers in 2017 and the con wasn't paying $7.00 USD USD per day per person for parking, so I guess we'll have to wait for the next membership meeting minutes to know for sure.

The FCC cost substantially more.

Seems like with the way we're trending soon we'll be able to take it to the next level in a smaller venue than we could fit in before.

Agreed.

TheKing30 and I were using that as a joke back around 2009 or so. Remember the "Move Historicon Now!!" and the "Take It To The Next Level!!" comments and buttons? Yep, the "New Level" is upon us.

Thanks for the update, Joby.

#Ploogak

I'm not sure I got this one thing. It sounded like next year there won't be a block, nor a reduced room rate, for us in The Holiday Inn. Is that correct?

Kpinder, I'm going to try to meet with them while in Lancaster next week also. We didn't have a three year contract with Holiday Inn like we did with the Marriott. The Holiday Inn was the Hotel Lancaster when the cycle for this year began and they were going through some changes (our contact person there changed throughout the last year). John Spiess and I arranged the room block and were able to get it increased twice over the year. They also have about 100 rooms more than the start of last year so I hope that'll make it easier to increase the block.

I expect we'll be able to get a block there again this year as it went well last year but I can't say for sure until I meet with them. So I'm not saying we won't, just that we don't yet. We were a new show to them last year so they were cautious. That's typical.

I'll keep everyone posted.

Joby

Thank you very much, TSD101. I appreciate your assistance.

Ditto.

So basically, from a high water mark in 2008, attendance has dropped by over 33% as of this last convention.

Not good.

#Ploogak

Tks.

We also might want to make happy noises about their event space on lvls 2 and 3. Lots of cozy quiet rooms up there. Obviously they won't want to commit those spaces, and more importantly the warm bodies needed for set up and tear down, unless we gobbled up a ton of rooms.

We should at least gauge the extent of 2.5x5 tables they keep on hand. If they have very few, well…

So basically, from a high water mark in 2008, attendance has dropped by over 33% as of this last convention.
Not good.

No it's not. But it is a 11 year trend that has seen 4 different venues for the convention. Other factors are at play here.

KPinder, that's actually on the list. They bought a bunch of tables specifically for our show but not enough. They ended up building 6x10 tables out of 7 18" tables. That made the tables 6x10.5 which doesn't sound like a big deal but as tight as we were with as many rows as we had ended up eating up a few extra feet of space. It's not a problem if they let us tell them where it's okay to do that.

And if you're talking about those small rooms down that little hall on three of the levels, we've already got them for next year.

Joby

Bowman you are right ! There are other factors at play here and most folks don't want to accept it . The average age of Historical gamers are in there 50s and we are dying faster then we are being replenished . Every hobby I have a connection to is in the same predicament .

Constant venue changes does cause problems , but I would bet real money you will never see 3,000 or anything close to it again . History has become a bad word in the young society and will just get worse . There being taught to not only be assumed of there history but to hate those that lived it . If you don't think there is a reason why Sci-Fi/ Fantasy has replaced History then you are not paying attention . Enjoy what we have !

#Ploogak

I was referencing the event space at the Holiday Inn. They have 3 moderate sized "ballrooms" (think Paradice Room), 1 Uber suite, and 7 meeting rooms (think Strasburg). They are located on 2, at the top of the lobby escalator, and on 3, one floor higher.

There's a huge room on 4, but that's the pool and unless we want to try "full immersion" naval gaming, unlikely to be of any real use.

I'm 46 and I've heard that the hobby is grey and dying since I was a child. Our hobby's target group has always been 40 to 60. I was an anomaly back in 87 with an interest in Napoleonic and the American War of Independence. I would argue there are more young people and females at the shows than there ever has been before. I don't know if we'll hit 3,000 but the numbers will go up next year.

Children aren't being taught to hate history. Children just don't like being taught. I think Socrates said that.

"Bowman you are right ! There are other factors at play here and most folks don't want to accept it . The average age of Historical gamers are in there 50s and we are dying faster then we are being replenished . Every hobby I have a connection to is in the same predicament."

That's really the elephant in the room; I sell toy soldiers for a living and like all hobbies, it's slowly circling the drain, as you pointed out, collectors are aging, slowing down, passing away and there aren't large numbers of new collectors coming along to replace them.

All of the toy soldier shows are bleeding attendees.

I'm not as well versed on the demographics of wargaming, but my assumption is younger gamers start out interested in fantasy/sci fi and then as they get older, they "graduate" so to speak to historical gaming.

Maybe I am wrong to assume that, but I'd think that would be the trend, just like with toy soldiers, younger collectors start out with plastics and then "graduate" to painted metal figures.

The problem is with no mass merchandisers carrying plastics anymore and hobby shops/toy soldier stores closing left and right and moving to ECommerce, the entry point for kids is drying up.

It's sad to see, but it's reality.

The statistics clearly demonstrate a downward trend in attendance over the last decade, seemingly answering my earlier question as to whether attendance was simply fading irrespective of venue.

The average age of Historical gamers are in there 50s and we are dying faster then we are being replenished

Sorry, not buying that as an excuse for why the con numbers are falling off a cliff. Attendance declined by over 1,100 in a mere 5 years. This argument that the hobby is grey and dying has been said for 40 years and yet Historicon was trending up up up until 2010. Yet there is also a massive resurgence in board gaming of all kinds. Hmmm. Will the people who used to blame the great recession for our woes please stand up?

I tend to think (and it's really just a hunch) that the decline in attendance is related to multiple factors, aging of the historical gamer perhaps being just one.

"Sorry, not buying that as an excuse for why the con numbers are falling off a cliff."

If you don't think that's a factor, just curious as to what you think the reason is.

STD101 , You don't have to except the FACT that there is a "greying of the hobby" But its true! Its also true that board gaming is doing well as you stated but thats not "historical miniature gaming" Also someone mentioned seeing lots of young and female participants as of late and I would say most of them are NOT playing historical miniature gaming but non- historical game of which we can only hope they transition to historical games but I doubt it .

We are creatures of our environment. Many of us grew up watching Combat,Rat Patrol etc.. ,saying the pledge of allegiance at school , listening to our fathers WWII stories not tearing down statues etc.. Now what do we have Kids grow up watching ONLY Fantasy and Sci-Fi . Taught in school , but mainly in the the mass media i.e. Facebook, Twitter, Hollywood etc that there past is evil and that schools with George Washington's name should be renamed . So do you really think the next group of miniature gamers are going to be "Historical miniature gamers like the last couple of generations ?

P.S Anyone see those new Victrix Gallic figures ,they look great ?

Yet there is also a massive resurgence in board gaming of all kinds. Hmmm.

I don't see how that counters the concept that the age of historical gamers is increasing. Instead of buying two armies, doing the requisite research on a battle, prepping and basing the figures, building(buying) the terrain, trees and buildings, you just open a box and you are ready to play in 5 minutes.

It's getting harder and harder to drive the long hours to the HMGS conventions and lugging a car full of toys to put on a game. One day I may just come to play in others games, and then one day I will stop altogether. I know of many who have done that already.

This hobby requires a lot of time, money and hard work. Boardgaming is not in the same league.

If you don't think that's a factor, just curious as to what you think the reason is.

Beating a dead horse but I don't think the organization ever recovered from the "Take it to the next level" fiasco and its quite clear that the vocal bunch who said they were done with the convention after the FCC move has stuck to their guns and moved on to other local conventions or groups. There is more competition now and I think that was the single biggest factor in why attendance looks to fall under 2,000 for the premier con in the next few years. Moving Historicon back to the Host saw the only positive spike in attendance since 2008/9, but part of me wishes the whole Somerset NJ location went through for a year to see if attendance would've had a big upswing from being within easy day tripping distance from NYC. We'll never know now.

As for kids not playing Historical miniature games, no matter what you say about Flames of War/Team Yankee it brought in a ton of people under 35 to the hobby. I see many younger people in the tournament room playing it. The question is, why haven't they branched into other games?

A decline of 1,100 attendees over a five-year period was mentioned above. In spite of all the references to the "graying of the hobby," one assumes they haven't ALL died!

Explanations other than death:

1) More infirm with age, as Bowman describes, more difficult to travel, medical issues – George wasn't the first guy to suffer a stroke

2) Other interests – Hey! Let's take a cruise!

3) Personal figure collections are maxed out, so why go?

4) With age and reduced income, more importance may be placed on the costs involved (They want HOW MUCH for a room????!!!!) (They raised the rates on dealer booths – now I have to pay $100 USD for electricity!!!) ($15 for a breakfast – are you kidding???) (You mean we actually have to PAY for parking?)

5) More unwillingness to drive long distances

I'm sure there are many other reasons for aging gamers to drop out.

I think the younger crowd better populate the local cons. There's a local game shop here in Lebanon NH that's all kinds of boards games and fantasy and they do just fine. Games , in general, are seeing a resurgence as people enjoy the personal interaction and tactile experience of moving pieces around a board or custom built terrain vs video games. In terms of disposable income for hobbies, we are seeing the first real increase since the meltdown of 07-08 and the economy is at full employment. That bodes well for all hobbies.

I would say the biggest variable/factor for any location is accessibility. Real or perceived. The beauty of the Host was it was always very accessible , warts and all , and kind of a known quantity. Based on the update from TPinder , it would've been a disaster for this years Historicon. All things considered , LCC was the best option and went as well as could've been hoped.

But the Host is getting born again. I would strongly recommend finding a way for it to be Cold Wars 2020 location. The optionality of three locations until we find our new equilibrium will pay off.

My cousin Double Gs glass is half empty on the future of the hobby but as I stated above, I'm more hopeful. Promotion and accessibility will help.

Gentlemen, a good and polite discussion. I think the arguments above show that the drop in attendance is a multi factorial problem, and will therefore resist a simple answer.

I see many younger people in the tournament room playing it. The question is, why haven't they branched into other games?

Exposure. I used to be a tournament player that spent too much time in the Lampeter Rm at the Host. There are some people who live in that room all convention and never venture afield.

I would strongly recommend finding a way for it to be Cold Wars 2020 location.

Your wish has come true, Millhouse.

hmgs.org/page/hmgs_cons

Personally, I'd like Cold Wars and Fall-In to be there.

Exposure. I used to be a tournament player that spent too much time in the Lampeter Rm at the Host. There are some people who live in that room all convention and never venture afield.

I've noticed for years that there seems to be two distinct bodies of players, Tournament and PEL, and they often exist in their own separate worlds never to mix. Still, in the tourny room I thought they'd at least be exposed to DBA, Saga, etc.

I would love to see the unique attendee numbers for each year between the shows. As a vendor I am also interested in the total number of customers I am reaching at shows, not just the same customers at 3 shows. That is the one thing I loved about the Fredericksburg location, a different subset of customers from further south that were now within a 10 drive of the shows. We have definitely seen many of those attendees drop off since the move back north.

"My cousin Double Gs glass is half empty on the future of the hobby but as I stated above, I'm more hopeful. Promotion and accessibility will help."

Which hobby do you think I am referring to? I mentioned wargaming has the ability for younger gamers who are into sci fi and fantasy to graduate to historical, while toy soldiers has no entry point with younger collectors in the way of plastics.

How is that half full thinking; it's reality you clambrain……………..(and I can call him that because he's my cousin; actually more like a brother from another mother……..but he is a clambrain).

I just got the full "Moe Howard". Lol.

I'm glad you feel that way. Collectibles in general have suffered. Millennials are more renters than owners and don't collect stuff. The older crowd hasn't had disposable income but between the stock market and wages, that is improving. And I think the model soldier hobby outside the US is as vibrant as it's ever been. Time will tell.

"Yet there is also a massive resurgence in board gaming of all kinds. Hmmm."

Bowman responds – "I don't see how that counters the concept."

- – -

An epic riposte! ….. ;-])

B

I see what he did there …. ;)

More food for thought: a group we've had only modest interaction with. But seems the most obvious group to get more involved

link

An epic riposte! ….. ;-])

For truly epic, I would have needed to figure out how to use the word "Meeple".

I suspect a big part of the problem was the way they advertised the shows. When I came on Historicon advertising was primarily Wargames Illustrated, Strategy and Tactics, and our own pre-show flyer which went out to the names in our database. There was some spotty additional advertising but none of that really advertised outside of our already established audience.

Starting last year we changed that by switching over to the e-brochure which saved each show a ton of advertising money. That money went into profit mostly because we needed to know how much money the shows were going to make with the changes the convention directors were making. Now that we have that information money is going back into advertising. Heather has expanded our social media advertising starting with Cold Wars this year, that continued at Historicon, and hopefully will continue at Fall In (I haven't spoken with Dan about what he's doing about advertising as I write this). All three shows are working more with Little Wars TV and Historicon had Beasts of War at the show this year. All of this will help us to reach new and more varied audiences but it won't be an immediate return.

Gaming is doing well right now and we're only just starting to tap into that audience beyond what HMGS had been doing the prior decade at least. I know people will have other opinions but in the end we won't really know for sure how successful these kind of changes are for a few more shows.

- Joby

Joby ,PM me. I have some social media ideas for you

Gaming is doing well right now and we're only just starting to tap into that audience beyond what HMGS had been doing the prior decade at least.

I'm glad this is being done because we need some new blood. Good advertising is something I support HMGS dropping money on.

Bowman et al, I think the comment on the resurgence of boardgaming is somewhat misleading. I follow this subject and the industry very, VERY closely in my capacity as a staff writer for wargamer.com, and if you mean family-parlor-Euro-similar, etc type games, the concept is spot on. If you mean board WARGAMES of the Panzerblitz or GMT Great Battles of History by Richard Berg (who just passed last week BTW) variety, however, then I think you are talking total collapse in the near future.

The demand for slick graphics has driven costs up and print runs down. GMT just noted that Mark Herman's new Rebel Fury ACW game just made the print cut with 584 preorders, a bit less than the 320,000 copies of Panzerblitz sold over its run. The killer, IMHO, are computer wargames (not strategy games like the Total War series). Matrix Pike & Shot Campaigns (actually digital Field of Glory Renaissance with all add-ons) is $ 40.00, or to get the equivalent with the GMT Musket and Pike series you will pay $ 377.

So I would be careful in comparisons between the two genres and emulation thereof. Case in point is the local Game Table Cafe which just posted the image below with the caption, "The hardest part will be figuring out which one to play first."

link See any you like? Imhotep, maybe?

Colonel Bill

#Ploogak:

Please include room layout in your AARs too. Each gaming area is best if it has a broad aisle to assist with movement (foot traffic as well as GMs hauling stuff in and out), and more than five feet between table edges. Yes, you lose gaming area, but it is a much more enjoyable experience for all, and game times can be adjusted (as I found out at a recent con).

This will also help reduce some of the noise, and the smaller rooms for club use will be a big hit as well.

Best wishes to you and thanks for doing all this work. :-)

Bill, I'm in agreement with you.

Case in point is the local Game Table Cafe which just posted the image below with the caption, "The hardest part will be figuring out which one to play first."

Not for me. I don't like board games. But I really dislike computer games of all stripes.

The point is still that the expenditures in money, time and skill to get a good looking miniature army onto the tabletop is quite high. Not so much with board games and definitely not so with turning on a computer. I think most people aren't ready to invest that amount of effort anymore.

Keep this in mind as well . A large percentage of miniature gamers either own no figures or very little or do not run games and that percentage has grown in my 47 years . If you notice it is often the same group of guys putting on games at both the club level and convention level . The only area where thats not true is in the Tournament area which is primarily a small unit ,one on one non participant gaming .

historygamer, that's more on us than them but with full use of Freedom, Hickory and Walnut that'll add about 2500 sq ft plus the Freedom pre-function space. That should allow us to spread out quite a bit more and use the airwalls to cut down on the noise. – Joby

Milhouse, I can't PM, I'm just a basic member but you can contact me at my email (director@historicon.org). Thanks, Joby

In the late 1960's I was playing board games (think Avalon Hill) and collecting figures and vehicles without a clue as to how they could be used in a game. Then I discovered Don Feathersone's book Wargames. My gateway. After that, it was all history (pun intended).

What I'm trying to think about now, is how would a computer-game-playing person approximately age 18 be introduced nowadays to table-top and figure games?

Will do Joby

I brought my oldest grandson (16) with me. It was his first Historicon. He knew nothing of the past, and was only able to see what was there in 2019. He really enjoyed himself and he can't wait to go back. Thanks to all of who made that possible.
One boy is not a representative sample, but his vote means the world to me!

We welcome your grandson to the HMGS!

Great location, awesome gaming halls, Vendor area was excellent. Food was ok but the cafes etc available just down the street was excellent. Best Fall In/Historicon/Cold Wars venue I have experienced. Nothing to complain about. Cant comment on others experience, it was their experience. All I can say for me, it was a great experience and I would go back to the Lancaster Convention centre anytime. Again my opinion, HMGS did an excellent job and I would take this place over the host anytime.

Oh come on, Obsidan23 .
What about the free ice cream served by the Host???
Heh heh heh … when the electrical power and air-conditioning all went out at the Host during a July HCon back some years ago).

In all seriousness, I must confess to a degree of curiosity about what this renovation of the Host will yield.

B