"Taiwan: Defend the Pescadores!" Topic

The prospects for Taiwan to defend itself unilaterally against an invasion by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) are more robust than has been previously assumed, as recent articles have highlighted.1 A Chinese amphibious force crossing the Taiwan straits would face withering fire from Taiwan's excellent Hsiung Feng ship- and shore-launched antiship cruise missiles. The amphibious force that survived would have to contend with Taiwanese mines and coastal defense vessels.2 Moreover, once it reached Taiwan, what remains of the 25,000-strong force the PLA Navy (PLAN) could carry in a single trip would have to contend with the roughly 150,000 troops the Taiwanese could concentrate on the few landing sites on the west of the island. Of course, China's fleet of amphibious landing vessels will grow, but so will the antiaccess/area-denial (A2AD) system confronting it—and defending large vulnerable platforms will always be harder than attacking them. Economic blockade will not work either. Even assuming historically high kill rates, Chinese attack submarines could sink around 6 percent of shipping to Taiwan; hardly a basis for compelling Taiwanese capitulation.3 The odds, then, seem heavily stacked in favor of the defender. This raises the question of whether Taiwan can be taken, even if China's A2AD system makes a U.S intervention on Taiwan's behalf impossible.

Yet, one contingency that does not appear to have been considered is that the PLA might take a leaf from the U.S. playbook on how to perform amphibious operations in a denied environment…

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A military attack by China would be their last step if a long series of non military actions fails.

They would begin with strong cyber attacks and a sea and air blockade of the island. This would be after a campaign to ferment political and civil unrest in Taiwan. Economic threats would be made against any country trying to supply Taiwan and this is where a possible US China clash could occur.

A more logical solution would be a slow gradual takeover. Despite what is said there is a lot of investment by both countries in each other's economies. Right now China is the #1 market for Taiwan exports and Hong Kong is # 2 the US is a distant third. The growing ability of China to affect the Taiwanese economy gives them more influence each year.

Eventually a Taiwan/China economic agreement will arise giving Beijing the opportunity to claim that Taiwan has returned. As Hong Kong shows once you get into a deal with the Dragon you eventually will be swallowed up. Remember China plans in terms of decades not years.

Their ships, aircraft, and land-based SSMs could destroy a lot more ships, in addition to the ones any sub sinks.

How many troops can the following carry:

- impressed merchant vessels like the British used in the Falklands Conflict;
- their very large fleet of small, merchant vessels; and,
- via aircraft, to be para-dropped, or landed at an airbase taken in a surprise attack on one of those?

Best game on the subject is GMT's Next War: Taiwan. The advanced game, while complex, does show all of the possible Chinese invasion options and it includes all of the foreign forces that could possibly intervene on the side of Taiwan. I don't think the Taiwanese navy is going to last very long and the Chinese are prepared to accept losses if they get a foothold on the island. While Taiwan has a large army, it is spread around the island, so they'll need to contain the airborne and initial landings quickly as once the Chinese start offloading their heavy brigades it's only a matter of time before Taiwan would fall.

Beijing may just go all-out nukestrike on the island.

Wolfman, a full nuclear strike on Taiwan would cause more radiation casualties in China than Taiwan. Taipei the capital is about 150 miles from the Chinese coast.

China views Taiwan as a renegade Chinese province. Why would they ever want to nuke it?

Wolfman, a full nuclear strike on Taiwan would cause more radiation casualties in China than Taiwan. Taipei the capital is about 150 miles from the Chinese coast.

And more importantly, the Mainland is directly downwind.

The most likely event is that in about 50 years, after Taiwan is too tightly economically integrated into the Mainland's economy, all Taiwan's sovereign debt gets bought up by the Mainland and then called. "Join us or lose your entire economy."