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"NATO enlargement and Russia: myths and realities" Topic


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Tango01 Supporting Member of TMP03 Jul 2019 9:18 p.m. PST

"In his address to the Russian Parliament on 18 April 2014, in which President Putin justified the annexation of the Crimea, he stressed the humiliation Russia had suffered due to many broken promises by the West, including the alleged promise not to enlarge NATO beyond the borders of a reunited Germany. Putin touched a responsive chord among his audience. For more than 20 years the narrative of the alleged "broken promise" of not enlarging NATO eastward is part and parcel of Russia's post-Soviet identity. It is hardly surprising, therefore, that this narrative has resurfaced in the context of the Ukraine crisis. Dwelling on the past remains the most convenient tool to distract from the present…"
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Legion 404 Jul 2019 5:55 a.m. PST

And what will Putin & the Russians do with the enlargement of NATO ?

Attack West facing the old & new NATO members, e.g. the Poles for one.

Do they even have all the assets it would take to do such a move ?

Or are willing to take the high losses in the attempt ?

Use WMDs ?

Cuprum204 Jul 2019 7:02 a.m. PST

Russia is not capable of a big offensive war. Russia does not possess such potential and will not possess it in the foreseeable future. All that Russia is capable of is local wars, the defense of its own territory and a suicide attack by nuclear weapons, as a way to cause the enemy unacceptable damage before its own death. If the West rejects the interests of Russia, threatens it, then it has only one way out – to side with him potential opponents.
Putin once spoke of Russia's accession to NATO, of a united Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok … These proposals did not interest anyone.

Oberlindes Sol LIC Supporting Member of TMP04 Jul 2019 11:54 a.m. PST

This would be an interesting scenario to wargame out using hex maps and counters, maybe using the rules from GDW's Third World War series.

Thresher01 Supporting Member of TMP04 Jul 2019 5:11 p.m. PST

I suspect this is really just Ex-KGB distraction from their real worry to the east, and a considerable, and growing, powerful foe that could actually present an existential threat to Russia, e.g. China.

Vlad's got a lot more to worry about from Xi than he'll ever have from the militarily weak, and fractured European and Ex-Soviet nations to the west.

VCarter Supporting Member of TMP05 Jul 2019 4:17 a.m. PST

Sounds like it's time to pull out the old S&T game "The East is Red".

Legion 405 Jul 2019 6:27 a.m. PST

I have & played "The East Is Red". Pretty good !

Of course the thing about Russia & China is they can attack each other by just crossing a border(s). They really don't have to deploy. Regardless that would still require a number of things to occur.

But something all need to remember, and I"m sure the Russians, Indians etc., know this. 20% of the World is Chinese. As well as another 20% is Indian, by the way.

Lion in the Stars05 Jul 2019 8:18 a.m. PST

Worse is that the Chinese are sitting on a demographic bomb due to their One Child policy. The generations of people under that policy are something like 75% male, which means that 50% of those families will not have anyone to carry on the name (which really matters to the Chinese culture) unless they 'find' a source of women.

Thresher01 Supporting Member of TMP05 Jul 2019 10:16 p.m. PST

I'm guessing that issue won't be solved in Siberia, so………..they'll need to move in other directions.

Cuprum205 Jul 2019 10:58 p.m. PST

In our time, no one needs a territory. Need resources and need a market for products. Conflicts with Russia are caused precisely by these reasons, as well as issues of military security.
Territorially, Russia may be interested only in a land corridor to the Kaliningrad region (there may be fears among the Baltic countries). Ukraine was interesting to Russia as a large market, the Crimean base of the Black Sea Fleet, as well as the manufacturer of many components for Russian weapons. This interest has already been lost and is actively being replaced by its own and Chinese products. The creation of separatist enclaves in the territories of neighboring states is supported by Russia to prevent these countries from joining NATO, as it threatens the interests of Russian security (we all could see the aggression of NATO. NATO is not the defense of the territory of the West. It is an offensive military bloc). The support of the Syrian government is an attempt to get its instrument of control in the oil region. This is an important region for Russia.
Venezuela – Russia's participation is minimal. Demonstration of readiness to protect their investments in the oil industry of this country. China is much more interested in this country.
Russia does not attack. She is trying to defend herself where she was inferior to the West for twenty years, hoping to be a full partner and relying on her interests to be taken into account. That did not happen.
China is probably a big problem for everyone in the future. Do you want China to gain control over Russian resources?

Thresher01 Supporting Member of TMP06 Jul 2019 8:13 a.m. PST

"Russia does not attack".

Events of history belie this claim, e.g. Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Crimea, Ukraine, Georgia, Afghanistan, etc., etc.:

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Nope, I do not want China to gain more power, nor do I want Russia to continue to attach, invade, and bully other smaller nations either.

Legion 406 Jul 2019 9:30 a.m. PST

I think the USA, Russian and China as well much of Western Europe have no intentions to start a war with one another. No real profit, it would interfere with "business", per se.

Now we see places in the Mid East, Africa, Afghanistan, etc.
Some 3d World, emerging nations or those based on religious dogma and terrorists are the new "enemies" to the 1st World.

Cuprum207 Jul 2019 8:08 a.m. PST

Thresher01 Do you list the countries that were attacked by NATO? Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria. This is not counting the wars that the members of the alliance fought without the participation of their allies.

The USSR is not Russia. As part of the USSR Ukraine, and the Baltic countries also "attacked" Hungary and Czechoslovakia))). As well as some other countries of the Warsaw bloc participated in it. Germany for example)))

By the way, Russia did not attack Georgia. It was a response to the deliberate murder of Russian peacekeepers. Interestingly, the response of other countries to such an attack would be different?

And in Ukraine, the conflict between the eastern and western territories has always been. The so-called "revolution" expelled the president (bad president, but still legally elected), chosen mainly by the eastern territories of this country and forcibly established the power of the representatives of the western territories. In this case, the conflict was inevitable. Yes, Russia supported those who disagree in the eastern territories, but this does not negate the fact that the conflict already existed, and it will continue for a very long time – until the "revolutionaries", who have seized power by force, and who are now suppressing the interests of the inhabitants of the eastern territories, will not be removed from power, and the status quo will not be restored. Ukraine cannot be a unitary state, since Don Cossacks and people who consider themselves Russians live in the eastern territories. They either need their own autonomy, or they want to join Russia. Either Western Ukrainians will have to kill them all or drive them out of their own land. With the Cossacks it will be difficult to do.

Cuprum207 Jul 2019 8:35 a.m. PST

Legion 4 – I would not be so optimistic. Nobody wanted World War I (at least in the form in which it happened). And yet – it happened. Sometimes the inertia of events is higher than human control.

Thresher01 Supporting Member of TMP07 Jul 2019 6:11 p.m. PST

Putin wants Russia to be the USSR again, and seems to be openly working towards that.

Georgia certainly was attacked, since their navy was eliminated, and Russian tanks and other armor and troops were on Georgian soil.

You have an interesting take on Ukraine. I suspect Vladimir would not be so understanding if the situation were reversed in Russia, and other nations chose to protect "their people" on the other side of the border, within the Russian state.

Cuprum207 Jul 2019 7:49 p.m. PST

Russia will become a "new USSR"; at least, this is its natural aspiration and it will always be.
But not at all like it was in the past. It should be similar to the European Union. Military efforts are not needed here. They are simply meaningless, because they will lead to constant conflicts and tensions. A military response is needed only to an armed threat.

Georgia was attacked in response to the murder of Russian peacekeepers. That is the order of events. Afghanistan was attacked by NATO in response to the events of 11 September. Was it provoked aggression?

Russia went through similar events in Chechnya. I remember the whole West warmly supporting the Chechen rebels and the friends of the separatists (for example, from Georgia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey etc.) provided them with various support.. Why do you use double standards for evaluation? At the same time, Russia is a federal state. It has its own republics and autonomous regions for all nationalities (including Chechnya – and since the Soviet time), they have the full opportunity for their culture and language. Why should Russians and Cossacks in Ukraine be deprived of this? Is this your conscious approach to human rights? Russian – subhuman and unworthy of equal rights?

Cuprum207 Jul 2019 9:27 p.m. PST

By the way, do you know that in Ukraine the seizure of weapons depots, administrative buildings and the creation of illegal armed formations began in Western Ukraine, at the time of the "revolution"? Did you know that attacks on representatives of Anti-Maidan (participants in peaceful protests against the overthrow of the legitimate president) from the Crimea and eastern territories began at the same time? That those who opposed the "revolution", the Ukrainian nationalists just killed? Why are you surprised by the response of those who disagree with the coup d'¨¦tat?

The attack of the nationalists on the buses with the participants of Anti-Maidan, who were returning to the Crimea from Kiev. This was the very beginning of the civil war in Ukraine. After that, residents of the eastern territories began to prepare to defend themselves.

YouTube link

After this, the residents of the eastern territories had to take up arms:

YouTube link
YouTube link
YouTube link

Russian (from Russia) volunteers came later.

By the way, my cousins ​​fought on both sides of the conflict. All of them are citizens of Ukraine. They are from mixed Russian-Ukrainian families. And this is an ordinary civil war. And of course Russia and the West have their sympathizers in this war and support those parties that are interesting to them. But mostly Ukrainian citizens are fighting among themselves. And the reasons for this conflict are in Ukraine itself, and not outside. The new Ukrainian authorities simply do not want to talk to their citizens, whose rights they violated. So this conflict has no peaceful solution. Russia cannot allow someone to destroy or repress Russians on a national basis, even if they live in another country. With any power in the Kremlin.

Legion 408 Jul 2019 7:36 a.m. PST

Legion 4 – I would not be so optimistic. Nobody wanted World War I (at least in the form in which it happened). And yet – it happened. Sometimes the inertia of events is higher than human control.
That is true … but today more so than anytime in the past, with instant communications e.g. Internet, TV, etc. and other high tech. I'd think it could be stopped much more quickly before things got too out of hand. I'd hope …

Of course if jihadis, rogue states, etc., one of those get a nuc … Well … that could cause a lot of damage very quickly. And the retaliation may cost many more losses with a lot of collateral damage. At least initially.

Cuprum208 Jul 2019 8:01 a.m. PST

We will hope.

Lion in the Stars08 Jul 2019 12:33 p.m. PST

That is true … but today more so than anytime in the past, with instant communications e.g. Internet, TV, etc. and other high tech. I'd think it could be stopped much more quickly before things got too out of hand. I'd hope …

Based on riots after officer-involved shootings here in the states, where the officer's bodycam showed the person being a direct threat to the officer, I think we are even less likely to be able to control a situation now than in 1914.

Legion 409 Jul 2019 7:15 a.m. PST

As Cuprum2 said … we can hope …

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