"Is Iran Attacking Oil Tankers As Part Of A Greater Strategy?" Topic

"Suspicion is now hardening that Iran was behind the attack on the two tankers in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday morning. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has fingered the Islamic Republic, and American officials have released footage of what purports to be an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps speedboat alongside one of the ships. The video shows men apparently removing an unexploded limpet mine from the hull of the vessel.

The implication is that the perpetrators were removing evidence of their guilt…."
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Amicalement
Armand

Dunno about the footage, but the strategy is pretty clear -- create instability and uncertainty without escalating into war.

1. They want do this to peel countries away from support of US sanctions and help undermine Trump in the hopes that if he's weakened he'll lose the 2020 election and a more pliable US president will cut them the slack they want.

2. Some good 'ol sabre rattling for the Iranian people to help suppress dissent, there have been a number of protests against the regime recently.

They're hoping to put pressure on others, and to get the EU to step in, and/or side with them further, in order to get out from under the US sanctions being reimposed.

I suspect they're also trying to embarrass the US President, who, due to the last 2.5 years of wasted time on an investigation without any basis, they believe to have been weakened.

I suspect if a 3rd attack occurs in the region, the Iranian leadership will find out they've badly miscalculated, and might even do so after this second attack, depending upon how things play out.

Placing limpet mines of tankers in the region, and exploding them, or even removing ones that didn't detonate to hide the evidence isn't a very bright move, especially given the US' intel and surveillance capabilities, and their previous threats to shut down the Gulf to oil shipments.

Has a test tube with white powder been detected yet? If there is no reason for another war – it is necessary to create)))

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"A U.S. official in Washington, without offering any evidence, told the AP that an American military team's initial assessment indicated Iran or Iranian allies used explosives to blow holes in the ships".

Apparently they haven't seen the video of the Iranian guys removing an unexploded limpet mine from the side of one of the tankers.

I guess I'm not supposed to believe my lying eyes, and that video footage.

Nor are we to believe those Iranian threats made by their leaders to close the straits to oil shipments. Note – the USA didn't make those threats, or force Iran's leadership to make them. They did that on their own.

I foresee many Iranian 'attack boats' mysteriously exploding out on the water while approaching other ships. Probably due to 'fuel leaks'…

Weird attacking aJapanese tanker while you host the Japanese prime minister.

Not really Jc, if you want to send a less than subtle message, while feigning total innocence. I've read that the Iranians are "masters of chess", so it wouldn't be beyond them to come up with such a cynical ploy. In this case though, if I'm right, they're being a bit too obvious for anyone to fall for it.

I think you may be on to something there Zephyr1, but perhaps it is really due to the wrath of one's favorite, and revered deity instead.

It's odd that one is tempted to agree with Iran about anything, but this is awfully suspicious.

It does seem uncharacteristically ham handed that the Iranians would be directly behind this. It's tempting to think, given the locations of the attacks that the Iranian Houthi clients, equipped with the same tools and techniques of their patrons, got a little over eager.

That's not to say that the Iranians aren't ultimately responsible, but one has to empathize about the problems keeping clients on script, especially when Iran cultivates so many.

Many different players inside Iran. Not unheard of one trying to weaken/embarrass another by doing/encouraging something. I believe there have been protests in Iran too over the last couple of weeks.

What about PRC involvement? Pay the Iranians to muddy the waters and draw forces away from China's backyard, while spending US treasure to keep the strait open for commerce?

Ajor mike is right. Iran is not one united coherent piece. It is made of different people, and has a complicated and intricate politics. It is not an absolute theocracy like our "friends" the saudis. It has real elections, parties etc. and then mafias, currents, personal feuds and some have one or part of the forces that pull this. A lot of the talk ( vs actual deeds ) of Iranian politicians on international tribunes are actually for internal consumption.
And they are not Arabs, different mentality.
That said their unfortunately sticky theocracy can do a lot we would think unreasonable.
Also as the japs in 1941, if you push someone to a situation that would mean lose face, they might attempt a hopeless fight.

I've read that the IRGC isn't really under the control of the Iranian leadership, but it's the other way around.

If so, perhaps they're still upset at being labeled as a "terrorist organization" as they rightly should be (named that is), by the USA, so are lashing out in order to live up to their billing.

You can bet Iran, China, Russia, North Korea, and many, many others are working collectively with one another, even if not by explicit verbal or written agreement. All are opportunists seeking to weaken and challenge the USA, and other western nations at every opportunity.

What about PRC involvement? Pay the Iranians to muddy the waters and draw forces away from China's backyard, while spending US treasure to keep the strait open for commerce?

Unlikely, since the PRC does need a crazy amount of petroleum as plastic feedstock, and all that flows through the Straits of Hormuz.

Can we stop using the word "Japs" please? It's 2019 FFS …

I've read that the IRGC isn't really under the control of the Iranian leadership, but it's the other way around.

If so, perhaps they're still upset at being labeled as a "terrorist organization" as they rightly should be (named that is), by the USA, so are lashing out in order to live up to their billing.

Huh, my read on the IRGC is that they report only to the regime, basically Iran's version of the SS.

The IRGC exists to protect the ayatollahs from the elected officials. Slight paraphrase of their constitutional status, but under the Iranian Constitution, the IRGC are commanded by the ayatollahs; while the Iranian Army, Navy, and Air Force are commanded by the President.