"Impact of New Tariffs on China?" Topic

OK, this is for all the retailers and manufacturers out there. The increased tariffs on China start June 1st, and the cardboard (hex and counter chaps, GMT, Decision, etc) are in a bit of a tizzy as to how its going to impact their pricing. My guess its due to a lot of offshore printing and production (for things like dice, etc) in China, or at least that's what GAMA seems to imply.

But what about miniature wargaming? From what I can see most model, scenery, terrain and paint production are done in country, locally. I know Old Glory's are produced right here in PA, ABs in Australia, Flames of War(Hammer) in NZ. As regards print and pubs, I know FOW stuff is marked made in NZ, but Osprey is outsourced to Worldprint Inc in China. Otherwise, not sure. Do you think the tariffs will impact the hobby, and if it does in the publication sector, could that hasten the adoption of digital alternatives like the PDF?

Ciao, Colonel Bill
ageofeagles.com
wargamer.com

Already under discussion: TMP link

As I state in the other thread, this "trade war" is much ado about nothing. China needs the rest of the world (and particularly the US and Europe) far more than the rest of the world (particularly the US and Europe) need China. Without them, we see a temporary hit to our economy while we adapt. Without us, their economy collapses. They'll be a lot of thud and bluster going on for a bit, and then they'll pretty much cave, with some face-saving agreements offered by the US so that the Chi-comm government can strut about crowing to their people that they "won."
Impact on our hobby? Minimal and temporary.

We need a poster for this situation: "KEEP CALM AND GAME ON."
That about covers it.

Actually no. That thread is little more than a political discussion IMHO, and a very debatable one at that. I'm looking for more specific, numbers centric data. Right now I know of a Gama article on the subject (listed below), but it seems more concerned with board and mainstream games. I'm looking for miniature wargaming dealers and manufacturers to comment.

link

Colonel Bill

I thought FOW was cast in Indonesia. Or was that just the resin and the new plastic comes from where?
Are there trade wars elsewhere?

Well, that's why I am asking the question, I'm not sure about a lot of this stuff. On Facebook someone noted that while a firm like Old Glory may make their minis right here in the US, is the metal they use imported from China.

Another issue that has popped up is the Country of Origin tag. I have to fill it out on the customs form every time I ship an AOE product across the pond. In one case the CoO is Hong Kong, which is kinda China. I know Osprey prints their stuff in China using a company called WorldPrint Inc. If its shipped directly to the US, or first to the UK and then to the US, the CoO is still China. Does this mean that after 1 June an $ 18.00 Osprey MAA will cost me $ 22.50.

Ciao, Colonel Bill

FOW is made in Malaysia, and designed in New Zealand.

Most of the tin used in casting metal figures comes from China. If tin is on the tariff list, the prices of figures will either go up or the manufacturers will eat the tariff. There have been some efforts on the part of suppliers to develop alternate sources but I'm not aware that any of these efforts have produced any metal. A 15% increase in the US price may provide the incentive actually come up with new sources. There was an effort to open a new mine in East Africa but the usual African corruption seems to have stalled this project.
I would just as soon not have to raise prices on my product or eat the increase in metal.

From what I'm now seeing, it appears that the Chinese are stalling for time, hoping that the current guy will no longer be in power starting in January, 2021.

Like they typically do, they're playing the long game, and with a "President for life" with solid backing from their communist regime, they have the upper hand in the leadership arena.

The USA definitely holds the financial cards however, as pointed out above.

Only a few items/categories are subject to the 25% tariff, and those don't include the lucrative electronics market currently. That of course could change, since we are hearing some talk of the 25% being levied on ALL Chinese exports.

I don't know where things sit with plastic models, or other things from there.

Some suppliers may even attempt to profit by claiming their costs are increasing, even when they don't, as they sometimes do.

Tin suppliers from other nations make become more attractive, if the 25% tax is levied on them, and/or China may need to shift some of their manufacturing/distribution ops to other nations to try to get around the tariffs.

FWIW, I managed to pull what I believe to be the official May 2019 tariff list from the US Trade Rep, Office of the President, and it wasn't easy. Though a URL for the pdf was referenced in several reliable sources seems to have been taken down from the USTR official government Website. Instead it reads:

The requested page "/sites/default/files/enforcement/301Investigations/May_2019_Proposed_Modification.pdf" could not be found.

Yet I found it on the – wait for it – the US-Vietnam Chamber of Commerce site. Its over 140 pages long and yes, includes almost every electronic line item under the sun, and also things like municipal waist and sewage sludge (seriously, not making this up).

However, lead and tin were not listed so may be part of the rare mineral/metal exclusion. However, overall the US does not import more than a tiny amount of the two items anyway.

Colonel Bill

Why the heck would Old Glory and any other makers import their metal from China?!?!?!

Are there no mines in North America anymore?!

Perhaps that's why a lot of the plants have shut down and so many working men lost their jobs – cheaper metal from overseas from miners being paid next to nothing.

And then by a simple search I found Canada has two tin mines, Alaska one. The one at Mount Pleasant Mine property in Charlotte County, New Brunswick is the largest in North America.

If tin is on the list, that would be a good thing in the long run.

I have posted two threads on the topic, while it was my intention to pass along some information on potential increases to those of us who game in this hobby they seem to have been dismissed and devolved into political or semi political discussions with my sources and information being criticized. The fact is that costs are going to increase for the gaming hobby, dice, paper costs and many of the parts of Boardgames, RPGs and rules sets will go up. Perhaps miniatures will themselves not be directly affected but the stuff that goes with them likely will be no matter whether one agrees or disagrees with the policy of the current administration on this topic.

Just doing some research for a possible article I might have to write for wargamer.com (and once again, not a blog, they pay me). Checked again and it seems this will be a blanket tariff on everything we get from China outside certain rare metals and minerals. Tin and lead are not on the list and we get very little from the PRC anyway. The two big items I can see are anything made with paper or plastics (and yes, electronics of course).

Colonel Bill, While this is not directly part of your research thought I would pass along this article that just popped up. It may not be necessary to add a tariff to Rare Earths as China may very well stop exporting this commodity.

link

Why the heck would Old Glory and any other makers import their metal from China?!?!?!

Let me hazard a guess. The workers in the Canadian and Alaskan tin mines earn higher wages, have health care benefits, have expensive security and safety policies in place. Hence the Chinese tin is much cheaper.

Old Glory purchases its tin – (15 tons in 2018)-- from a very large American supplier right here in the state of Pennsylvania. Where they get the raw material before smelting and process??????

Russ Dunaway

Gang,

Seriously, the USA does import tin, but as this site indicates I don't think this is going to be a China tariff issue. As the Editor indicated on another thread, so far I think mini wargaming so far seems reasonably unaffected:

Here are the US tin import stats:

link

Colonel Bill

I wish people would stop using the term"tariffs on China " as it is incorrect and misleading The actual charge is an extra tax to the customer for purchasing an item attributable to or made in China. The only one who pays is the end user namely the customer.

The revenue raised goes to the Federal Government and becomes part of the general revenue.The increased purchase costs also increases sales taxes so that State and City governments get some cash too.

Tariff revenue is also unplanned for money so that the added government revenue may be a good way to have more cash to pay bills and it is difficult to give that money up.It is also a good way to tax people

Tariff revenues have risen 40% over the similar quarter last year so you have to ask Is it a trade war or a tax grab ?

link

Indeed Redblack, as with corporate taxes, tariffs are just another way for the government to get revenue from their citizens.

And the greatest impact is on the citizens in the lower income brackets.

One of the primary factors leading to higher production costs for US tin, etc. is excessive regulation fueled in many cases by those who see mining and manufacturing as unnecessary evils. The last base metal smelter in the US was closed due to 'environmental' issues – not because there was no need for it.

I've already ordered a lot of magnets. Just in case China stops exporting rare earth minerals.

> is excessive regulation fueled in many cases by those who see mining and manufacturing as unnecessary evils

In most cases it is necessary regulation by those who see mining and manufacturing as necessary good but safety in those professions important too.

One of the primary factors leading to higher production costs for US tin, etc. is excessive regulation fueled in many cases by those who see mining and manufacturing as unnecessary evils. The last base metal smelter in the US was closed due to 'environmental' issues – not because there was no need for it.

Not sure what any of this has to do with the original post which asked about the impact of new tariffs on China to the miniatures production industry.

Condottiere, Precisely! There is a urge or need by some to distort the discussion into areas that are at best marginally related. Assuming these tariffs are imposed we will see increases in the gaming industry/hobby on many goods such as dice, game parts, boxes, paper (that goes into pretty much everything), packaging & shipping materials along with items that I have likely missed.

A tangent, I wonder about, is whether certain companies(I am certain not all) would use the hype to justify price increases just as the oil companies do through out the year. Also the "buy now while prices are still low" tactic may be proffered by them or their venders.

As usual wargamers are not looking at the big picture. Maybe the hobby won't take a hit but the prices of many items people buy will increase, cutting into discretionary money used to buy hobbies (including figures and games). Which means some businesses may close. Miniature building Authority items come from China, many painted miniatures come from China. The Warstore is closing its online business, not sure why, but it had been harder to get items from them.

The Warstore is closing its online business, not sure why, but it had been harder to get items from them.

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I'm sure having between 100k – 200k stolen from you doesn't help your bottom line at all. Neal does something nice for someone and this happens. It's sickening.

No good deed goes unpunished.

I am sorry that very nice man is suffering because of a christian deed but this is a hilarious statement by the thief's lawyer:

"He's being set up," Mr. Mates said. "I don't know by who, but he's being set up … In the end he will be exonerated."

If I were that lawyer, I'd make sure that I found some damn good evidence before appearing in court with a claim like that. It would be interesting to hear about what happened to him.