"Beijing is winning the great South China Sea game" Topic

"The security temperature in the South China Sea has ratcheted upward precipitously in recent weeks. On May 2, news outlet CNBC reported U.S. intelligence that China has installed anti-ship cruise missiles and surface-to-air missiles on three fortified outposts in the Spratly Islands.

This deployment follows the installation in April of jamming equipment that disrupts military communications and radar systems — also on outposts in the Spratlys…"
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Amicalement
Armand

China won the issue back in 2009, when no one with any real power told them no.

Dan

Nah. US and other nations continue to move warships through there to continue the international waters claim. I think they have already lost a World Court case on this not long ago?

Sea level rise will probably give everyone else the last laugh on this one…eventually!

The article is sensationalist and far from accurate.
Australia , for example, maintains a policy of freedom of movement in the area. In April, three RAN ships, on route to a goodwill visit to Vietnam, were challenged by the Chinese navy and a " polite but robust" exchange followed.
The US and Australia will continue to route warships and planes through what is open space.
Certainly we can trust the US and Australia not to act in a precipitate way but to simply and firmly dispute Chinese claims.

The author of the article above has no concept on how modern diplomacy works.

No one will do anything to prevent China militarizing the disputed islands because of China's economic clout and the internationalization of trade and commerce. Too many people have too much money to lose if they displease the Middle Kingdom.

Nothing militarily will happen unless China starts drilling for oil or natural gas in the disputed waters, because only then we're talking about who gets to benefit from the windfall.

If China had any brains, they'd grant Hong Kong and Taiwan independence, then withdraw their territorial claims to the South China Sea.

A stunned world would marvel at the forward looking Chinese statesmanship.

The next day they should issue invitations to a South China Sea summit. All the countries bordering on the region, including Japan, but no US nor Russia. At the summit the Chinese propose a South China Sea Consortium. All the South China Sea waters would be supervised by a central steering committee, dominated by the Chinese. All the countries would surrender their sovereign claims to exploit the resources to the Committee. The Committee would exploit the resources for the benefit of all. The regional countries would not have to lift a finger. Members of the Consortium would receive payments from the Committee from the sale of the resources, after costs and some modest admin fees.

Freedom of transit is preserved. The local countries get to benefit from the resources they feared they'd lose to China, and don't have to do a thing to get it. China gets control of the resources, and look statesmanlike.

Oh, and buried in the fine print is a provision hat China has the right of first refusal to purchase any resources produced by the Consortium, at market rates.

I think they call this the "soft kill."

KPinder: "I think they call this the ‘soft kill.'"

Indeed. Sun Tzu would still have called it part of "warfare". I think it is we who think diplomacy and other "soft" tactics are completely separate from, and in opposition to, an open war option.

Also, not everyone sees time as an enemy, like we often tend to do here in the West.

Dan

Xi Jinping probably thinks he is smarted than Sun Tzu. Outright bullying and militarism is the least creative way to influence the region.

Lol. Who knows? Xi (Who Must Be Obeyed) certainly thinks he's smarter than most in the Party leadership, and their "Constitution".

The rest somehow all end up accused of corruption and other things, and end up "removed" one way or the other. Even some of his generals go "missing":

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Dan

@KPinder,

That is an excellent plan in theory, but practically speaking it's very unlikely. The US will use its massive political clout to make sure that its allies in the region (e.g., Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Japan, etc.) would never agree to China's magnaminous proposal for the benefit of all (in the consortium). Without unanimity or near unanimity, the consortium will be a pipe dream.

This is the kind of America-dominated NWO Pax Americana that China and Russia are trying unsuccessfully to put in check.

Sure, because a Pax Sinica (Communistarum?) would be the very best option for all parties involved. :)

Dan

I lived in Taiwan. It's already independent regardless of what Beijing says. Unfortunately, that could change.

Rdfraf…. do you really think that the Continental Chinese made any move to invade the Island…?… just curious….

Amicalement
Armand