"Taiwan president: possibility of China attack" Topic

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen said that she does not exclude the possibility of China attacking the self-ruled island, amid heightened tensions between the two sides including an increasing number of Chinese military drills near Taiwan…

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But everyone keeps telling me such that things are simply inconceivable. :)

Dan

Shades of the post Beijing Olympics period when the world and his dog were convinced that was the best time for China to make a move.

There is no greater (or lesser) possibility that China will invade Taiwan today than yesterday, last year or five years ago.

The current regime in Taipei is making noise only because Taiwan desperately needs to modernize its military and purchase new equipment. It can't possibly justify spending billions without raising alarm about a possible invasion.

Hummmm… their best tanks are M48s and M60s. Tanks designed in the 1950s. How many things do you own and use a lot date from then? Yeah, time for a new tank!

The reality is that Taiwan doesn't modernize its land forces because it relies on defeating any invasion from the mainland before it reaches the island. Like Britain's English Channel deterring Operation Sea Lion, the Taiwan straits is a body of water that an amphibious force must overcome first.

Taiwan's strategy has always been to place higher priority to its air and naval forces before its army. But because it's a "renegade province" that's not internationally recognized due to the official "One China" policy, few nations are willing to risk angering Beijing even as Taiwan has a lot of money to spend on defense. The most modern fighters in the RoCAF are the F-16A (though upgraded continuously) and the Mirage 2000. The US wouldn't even sell Taiwan F-15's like it did Singapore because of Chinese pressure. This has forced Taiwan to grow its own aerospace industry and develop its own combat aircraft, like the indigenous F-CK-1 "Ching-Kuo" fighter. It's a nifty little bird but somewhat underpowered.

Maybe the poor unfortunate citizens of Taiwan will get this little message first, to make sure that the Taiwan regime loyalists are easier to single out.

Dan