"What if... Churchill never became Prime Minister?" Topic

Or was kicked out of office after Dunkirk?

He became Prine Minister to fix a problem. Dunkirk showed that the policy in France was a failure. (Follow me here…)
So the same old appeasers were back in power.
How would Herr Hitler have reacted? He is said to have admired the British, and the British Empire. What would he have demanded, had Britain sued for peace immediately after Dunkirk? Assume the Battle of Britain and Sea Lion have a temporary halt during negotiations.
What would Hitler's demands have been? I would think they would be generous, in his mind. Generous enough so that Britain could adequately defend the Far East. Screw Mussolini. What did he contribute?
Maybe give Gibraltar to Spain, Malta to Italy.
Token surrender of a few old battleships, just to show who's boss, but keep the majority.
Maybe Hitler would have "suggested" that Winston have an accident. Easily arranged.

So, anyway, Hitler has no worries about his rear while he invaded Russia. In fact, the month delay over Yugoslavia doesn't happen.
Monty defends Malaya and Singapore. Or perhaps he doesn't need to. Hitler throws Japan under the bus too. He doesn't need them anymore.

Thousands of British citizens do not die in the Blitz. Russia falls. The Empire is saved.

Any thoughts?

John, have you seen "Darkest Hour?" If the historicity is correct, and I don't know that it isn't, then I think Chamberlain and Halifax thought they could control Churchill. But once he got the House of Commons behind him with his "Nver Surrender" (my name for it) speech, they couldn't stand against him.

But if Halifax had been less of a wishy-washy person, then he could have succeeded Chamberlain and there would have been even more appeasement and peacemaking with "that Austrian paperhanger."

Just my nickel's worth.

Jim

The response to this question really depends on who would have been PM insteam. On the other hand, look at it like, what if Chamberlain had been PM during the war years. Would England be speaking German now?

I've read that Hitler's demands would have included restoration of the German colonies lost after the First World War. I'm sure there would have been other things, as well.

Grelber

I have read that Chamberlain was only appeasing because all the brass hats told him that the army and RAF were not yet ready. So he was buying time. He was not a coward. But events caught up with him.

"On the other hand, look at it like, what if Chamberlain had been PM during the war years. Would England be speaking German now?"

Chamberlain died in November 1940.

Appeasement knew no bounds…..each infraction of the treaties was met with further appeasement……the admiration of the apparent economic turnaround and 'strong nation' rhetoric was rife in the ruling class of GB that was starting to face nationalist independence movements within the Empire. The preservation of this Empire would have trumped any desire for involvement in another European war had anyone else been PM other than Churchill….who saw the Third Reich as the greatest danger.

Restoration of German colonies is interesting, perhaps with a 'Vichy' type deal with the British Empire……all to secure the West for Hitler's takedown of the Soviets and lebensraum in Eastern Europe.

Alan Clark proposed a different scenario in which Britain makes overtures for peace, not in 1940, but in 1941. With the Battle of Britain having failed and with Hitler's attention focussed on Barbarossa he was of the opinion that the British could have secured a very favourable deal. They would then have been free to oppose the Japanese more effectively, if indeed the Japanese decided to go ahead. What does Hitler get from this? It secures his rear from threat of invasion and Swedish iron ore supplies from interference. It gives him access to trade from French ports with the rest of the world for the raw materials he needed. Rudolf Hess was thinking along similar lines and hence his flight to Scotland in May ‘41.

""On the other hand, look at it like, what if Chamberlain had been PM during the war years. Would England be speaking German now?"

Chamberlain died in November 1940."

We're talking what ifs. What difference does it make?

We're talking what ifs. What difference does it make?

So it's all pretty pointless then? You have to anchor your "what if" somewhere, otherwise you might as well add "what if Hitler had been born in Bolivia in 1786, and powered flight had never been invented/discovered?". smh

yse, what ifs are pointless

"I have read that Chamberlain was only appeasing because all the brass hats told him that the army and RAF were not yet ready. So he was buying time. He was not a coward. But events caught up with him."

He certainly did not act from cowardice. His father, Joseph Chamberlain, was a staunch supporter of being allied to Germany. I have actually no doubt that this feeling was also strong in his son Neville.

Chamberlain knew that he could not start a war in 1938. Neither the RAF or Army was ready. Remember Gloster Gladiator was new then. Also democracies have to be provoked and Germany reclaiming lost lands that had some German speakers in them was not enough to inspire the country to return to war. All it would have done is created a political crisis and the UK would not have been prepared by 39 and may have even left the Poles to their fate. Instead he issued his ministries with basically blank cheques to create the industrial capacity and even buy up as much strategic metals as he could just so that Germany could not have them

Halifax felt that he could not be PM because he was a member of the house of Lords. Knowing the diplomatic skills of Germany at that time their peace offer would have just made Britain more determined especially after what they demanded of France. I suspect that if it was not Churchill, say he had had a heart attack or insulted just one person too many, It would have been somebody else just with not such good speeches and probably different mistakes.

What Churchill could not say after Dunkirk was that Britain with the RAF, Navy, industrial setup and most importantly the Empire and its resources was pretty much unbeatable by 1940, it was just a mater of time and the price.

By the way the only way I can see Germany of wining this would have been in June 40 to only demand a return to 1914 borders and vacate the Low countries, Scandinavia and France. That way Britain would have been out on a limb and would probably have had to agree to a ceasefire as they could not stop all of Europe trading with Germany. Of course for Germany to realise this path then they would have to recognise their weakness, which would have meant they would not have started this whole war in the first place.

I doubt there would have been any stomach for a peace in 1940 amongst the British people- Churchill simply articulated the mood of the country and like all politicians went with it. One other thing to remember- among all the hagiography…Churchill's speeches were not well received at the time- in fact he was advised not to make any as they were found depressing and counter to good morale by Mass observation the public opinion body of the day. The versions you hear now where re-recorded after the war in a much better style of delivery and of course his words (with hindsight) do appear far more inspiring than they ever were at the time.

Continental Europe would be part of the Soviet Union today……..

Hitler never wanted to be at war with Britain. He was an admirer of Britain as fellow Aryans. Provided someone accomodating like Halifax was PM, I doubt Hitler would have wanted more than cesessation of hostilities, exchange of prisoners, a formal peace treaty with a non-aggresstion pact. Making demands of occupation of Britain, loss of British territories would have been an non starter for peace with Britain. To sweeten the pot he would probably offer to withdraw from the low countries and Denmark and Norway making it almost impossible for the British to refuse. France and Poland would be off the table but doubtful the British would really care. Then Hitler would be free to tackle what he really wanted which was to attack Russia with no distractions

We would have had the " Atlee" tank?