WARNING, LONG POST !!!
North Korea, autocratic power and the art of deterrence.
Patrick R ·Thursday, November 30, 2017
It is common advice, if faced by a bully, just strike back, they are more afraid of you, than you are of them.
Why it didn't work on my bully and why he kept coming back despite my best efforts was for many years a mystery. Turns out he was one of those psychopathic-narcissistic types that not only love to prey on others, but see any resistance to their actions as a deed of aggression against them.
The core problem is that it makes them almost totally incorrigible because unlike normal people when confronted by sanction or coercion by say an authority, change their behavior accordingly. These people don't, they cannot accept that there is a force above them and for them it's "Dominate or die." There is no alternative.
Many of our interactions relay on the basic principle that both actors are nominally rational in their behaviour and share certain basic expectations such as self-preservation, being able to weigh the cost of an action and measure an expected outcome versus a likely outcome. Granted even rational actors can make mistakes due to anything from honest mistakes and false assumptions, to being driven by an agenda dictating a specific course of action.
Most personal interactions are ultimately framed by higher authorities be it a school principal or a legal system that will arbitrate that can intervene if our interaction goes wrong. If you bully a fellow student, you run the risk of being punished, keep this as a grudge and lash out as an adult and you could be escorted to jail, screaming death threats at the judge as my bully apparently ended up doing.
But what happens when the highest authority is the actor ? Nations interact with each other like people would interact if there was no substantive higher authority other than some basic agreements to play nice and a mostly non-binding legal framework that mostly depends on others to take appropriate action in the case of infringements.
Thankfully many international relationships are of a benign nature, mostly concerned with daily coexistence, but at times relationships are of an antagonistic nature and the threat of armed confrontation becomes a distinct possibility.
Since its creation North Korea has been tightly controlled by its autocratic dynasty, the Kim family. It's an extremely tragic, but highly efficiently run system. The state is being kept in a permanent state of near-war, still officially at war with South Korea under a cease-fire that has lasted since 1953. Supported by China and the USSR as a fellow traveler in the great communist cause it was always perceived as a lesser evil, isolated from the rest of the world.
The border with South Korea is lined with one of the most impressive series of military fieldworks in the world today. A massive array of bunkers, tunnels, emplacements, millions of miles of barbed wire and extensive minefields are claimed to be a bulwark to ward off any further South Korean aggression. That this is also a perfect stepping stone for a possible invasion of the South is brushed off as merely western propaganda.
North Korea, unlike the kleptocracies typical of African dictatorships where corruption is a game anyone collectively plays openly from the great leader himself down to the lucky owner of a single official stamp, corruption and abuse is carefully hidden. Make no mistake, the idea of an autocratic ruler ruthlessly stamping out corruption at every level is simply a fantasy because it is squarely at odds with some basic principles of power.
No ruler can run a nation all by himself. He must acquire power to achieve his lofty position and must maintain this, and is therefore tributary to those people who help maintain his position. Rewarding those important to your rule becomes primordial and turning a blind eye to any attempt they will make to acquire wealth is actually productive and conducive to keeping you in power. A wise autocrat will therefore make the redistribution of wealth to his supporters a priority. If you gained power through revolution or simply got elected makes no difference, you will reward your fellow revolutionaries, or those who helped to elect you (this does not necessarily involve the electorate), but remember your state will only generate so much money, so if you want to see that Swiss bank account swell to bursting you need to reward only the important ones or better yet give them free reign by redistributing the wealth to your supporters or better yet, leave them with the magnificent opportunity to carve out their own little corrupt system asking for a nominal tribute and the implicit notion that they are free to plunder everyone, except the one at the top.
North Korea is a communist state you say, it is ruled by an
ideology and the Kim family abides by it.
A good efficient autocrat is free of ideology and only uses it for his own benefit. If they do suffer from ideology or feel inclined to waste money on people who are unimportant in the power game, it should be chalked up to a character flaw. After all nobody is perfect.
In North Korea communism is the framework that is used by the ruling powers to keep everyone in line, but the Kim family could easily have proclaimed their own ideology and go from there.
Personality flaw ? Kim Jong Un is a complete nutcase !
Have you ever been in a situation where you were confronted by somebody who was behaving so dangerously your main preoccupation was to get away as quickly as possible ?
North Korea is not only a very efficient autocratic system, but it is also a master of deterrence. Everything is both rational and calculated and designed to appear so toxic that nobody wants to get near it.
It is common wisdom that North Korea is an isolated nation, but it is not, it has carefully built up a hidden network throughout Asia that allows it to both generate wealth, secure a steady stream of foreign currency, acquire modern technology to benefit the ruling elite and helps to give it international leverage.
Whereas many autocratic powers have a two-tier system where the bulk of the economy serves the autocrat and his ruling elite, while the general population can live off the scraps. North Korea adds another tier and makes a distinction between the ruling elite that helps to prop up the regime and the Kim family. If the money stream going to the elites is nebulous, but still traceable, the economy tied to the Kim family and said to exceed that of the two other tiers combined is completely separate.
I'll let that sink in for a second.
Forget Mobutu, forget Mugabe, Kim Jong Un is the only person in the world that has his own national economy. Most of it isn't even in North Korea.
Does this sound like a nutcase ?
North Korea wants you to believe they are crazy enough to pick a fight with the rest of the world because it assumes that its interlocutors are rational people who feel that starting a shooting war with North Korea is not worth the trouble.
Deterrence is an art. Speaking of peace, international cooperation and a friendly resolution of conflict and arguments are lofty and noble goals and coming to an agreement is the hallmark of a civilized society. Until you get involved with bad people, the bullies of the world.
Sooner or later somebody comes to power who feels they are better than others and deserve a bigger share of the pie and because they are stronger can start to dictate others what to do.
You can collectively try to isolate them and push them into revising their attitude and play nice with others. This often takes time and there are always those willing to make a little deal under the table or flatly refuse to help put them down because their self interest creates a conflict.
" I have always been fond of the West African proverb: "Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far." Theodore Roosevelt
North Korea is focused on survival against the rest of the world. To this end they have carried deterrence to its highest conclusion by acquiring not only the "poor man's atom bomb" a massive stockpile of chemical weapons, but actual nuclear weapons, performing tests not so much to perfect the weapon as to show off how dangerous they are.
In reality North Korea doesn't have the means to fight a prolonged conflict. Not without major foreign aid. Yes, there are thousands of guns aimed at Seoul and they could flatten the city in hours if something bad happens, but these bunkers are quite unusual, they have been built around the guns, fixing them permanently in one direction so that nobody would ever be tempted to turn them on say Pyongyang. The guns have just enough ammo, kept under lock and key by the most trusted officers of the regime, to do their initial job, because many are poorly maintained anyway. It is believed that anything from half to three quarters of the mines scattered between the two countries are duds or malfunctioning. It is believed that most regular divisions are woefully underequipped and many of the most loyal and trusted divisions have significant breakdown rates even in peacetime. The North Korean military is a force to be reckoned with, they have special forces trained to infiltrate and devastate South Korean infrastructure.
If there is a battle plan the most likely one will be an early attempt to gain as much ground as possible and then try to hold onto it until countries like China and Russia force another cease-fire and help to push a peace deal that would favour North Korea, probably ignoring the 38th parallel.
Kim Jong Un does not eliminate top brass, vital aides and even relatives because of some madness or a sadistic streak. It's terror aimed at everyone in the system. Cross the line and you get blown up with a missile or a cannon or you get poisoned in the perceived safety of another nation far away from isolated North Korea.
North Korea's deterrence is second to none. They threaten war, defy even perceived aggression with bloody retribution. They create a state nobody wants to get involved with, let alone go to war with.
But North Korea is now having to deal with a completely new problem.
Donald John Trump.
"Don't kick the hornet's nest, they will sting you." A rational person would take these words to heart. Trump ?
I'm not saying Trump is irrational, but he has openly defied North Korea and is acting just as irrational as North Korea's posturing. Be it genius or madness, Trump has North Korea sweating because they don't know if he is coming for them or is merely a shrewd tactician calling their bluff.
You may not agree with his policies, but others are also starting to feel a little nervous that they might end up in Trump's scope.
Rationality has never been a safeguard against tragic mistakes, the whole of Europe thought somebody would back down in the June-July crisis of 1914 and the whole system of alliances and the concert of Europe collectively failed in the most dramatic way. Rationality however prevailed during the Cold War where self-preservation and the prospect of a nuclear war always won from the temptation to scale up a hot moment.
North Korea has long gambled on the concept that any rational nation would not entangle itself in another war where the use of chemical and now nuclear weapons seems almost guaranteed. Put an unpredictable figure like Trump in the game and …
Interesting times.
finally begins Vietnam.
ING WORKED. So what else ya got?
