"Syria: Who will win the future? " Topic

"We all know that the situation in Syria has become a disaster. And one can ask oneself whether this disaster could have been foreseen and prevented.

I personally am convinced that the main developments in Syria could have been foreseen, certainly as far as the behavior (and misbehavior) of the Syrian regime were concerned. For many observers, however, all the cruelties at first went beyond their imagination; even though they could have been predicted – and were predicted – by some people having a deeper knowledge of the Syrian regime.

There were some essential elements, however, that could not have been clearly foreseen. One of these was the so-called "Arab Spring" that brought many Syrians in a kind of euphoric mood, after political leaders in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya resigned or were toppled with the help of Western and Arab countries that proclaimed that they wanted to support or protect the Arab populations against their dictators or authoritarian rulers…"
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Armand

Syria became a "line in the sand" for Iran and, to a lesser degree, Russia, who did not want to see Syria go the way of the other countries that fell to the Arab Spring movement.

Russia, in particular, saw Libya as a huge mistake and vowed never to stand by again and allow what befell Gaddafi happen to Assad. With Iran and Russia behind him, Assad is assured of staying in power, at least among his own Alawite minority.

The only success of the "Arab Spring" which I am aware is Tunisia. The rest of the Middle-East is a mess. It was naive of Western governments to think that the Assad regime would simply step down after ruling Syria for 40 years. Assad and the Russians alone did not destroy Syria.

Assad's misrule and steadfast refusal to step down were the root causes of what destroyed Syria, along with Russian/Iranian intervention which only prolonged the agony.

I would postulate that the doddering of the Obama administration during what was a relatively moderate period in the rebellion's history contributed greatly.

CFeicht,

Why should Assad "step down"? He is the leader of his country. Who are we in the West to tell a foreign leader he has to step down. That is the ultimate in arrogance; look at the mess we made of Libya. And if he had, what do you think would have happened next, instant peace among all the "moderate" rebels? Rebel groups like ISIS which had established their caliphate capital in a Syrian city would have continued to behead people. Syria is much worse now with all the rebel groups fighting then is ever was before the fighting started.