"If America Topples North Korea and Iran, What Happens Next?" Topic

"…Removing hostile regimes, including by means of military action, is the logical solution if one concludes that a "rogue state" cannot be deterred. This thinking drove the George W. Bush administration's invasion of Iraq. Many champions of that operation have now reemerged within the Trump administration and on its friendly periphery. North Korea and Iran are the two remaining members of President Bush's "Axis of Evil."

The predilection to vanquish the North Korean and Iranian governments may or may not lead to war. But, the perception that the United States is seeking the removal of North Korea's and Iran's governments certainly has perverse effects that remain underappreciated and underdebated in Washington and the country at large, notwithstanding the Iraq experience.

History shows that threatening authoritarian governments does not compel them to stop building nuclear weapons and missile systems. Rather, it spurs them to speed the development of these weapons in order to deter foreign attacks and subversion. Close observers of North Korea conclude that threats from the United States hasten North Korea's development and testing of both nuclear warheads and missiles of ever longer range. North Koreans say that Libya's Muammar el-Qaddafi would not have met his ignominious defeat and death in 2011 had he not given up his nuclear program in 2003. (Gaddafi, in fact, had no significant nuclear capability; what matters here are the perceptions of the North Koreans). The legendary Indian general, Krishnaswamy Sundarji, famously quipped that the lesson of the 1990 war in Iraq was: "If you are going to fight the United States, you better have nuclear weapons."…"
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Amicalement
Armand

Easy. China will find a way to "motivate" the locals to set up two replacement regimes who will honor their obligations to the PRC and who will continue to distract the rest of us from other vital matters.

A few months ago Beijing was very clear. They would not tolerate a regime change in North Korea, even if that means military involvement by them.

There simply will not be much change while China is pulling the strings. Sooner or later we'll have to address the big elephant (dragon?) in the room.

Dan
PS. Then again, I could be wrong. China could just sit passively on the sidelines and let things take their own course. Ha! Yeah, right. I started laughing just as I was typing that. :)

Two?

We'll all bathe in the nuclear afterglow!

The government in Iran is the direct result of the regime change we inflicted on that country in 1953. The Iranians, despite however much they may dissent from their government, still remember that. The US will need to learn to live in a highly weaponized world. Somehow we managed to avoid nuclear war during the Cold War. We can do it again.

LOL. Of course it's our fault. Everything, everywhere, at any time, always seems to be our fault, according to some people. We've heard it so much these last few years that nowadays that mantra doesn't always have the effect it used to have.

Because Iran couldn't have possibly ever come up with a fundamentalist "theocratic" government all on their own, right? That kind of stuff simply never happens in that part of the world. :)

Dan

(smile)

Amicalement
Armand

I agree with all you said there Dan. It is too easy to point fingers at the USA. As we see many do it. Whether it's valid or not.

And the last thing the world needs in a fundamentalist theocratic regime with nucs.

Un who is a draconian dictator, who only wants to stay in power. He likes to be king. Not plan to wipe a certain nation(s) off the planet, based on spiritual belief differences.

Regardless both are dangerous to all within range of them. By the time some types are done. They will be the first for the "wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth". When one or both of those nations somehow launches a nuc at someone within range. then keep asking how could we let this happen ?

The P5+1, etc., really needs to find a way to stop those lunatics before it's too late. Unfortunately it seems it won't be without bloodshed. Hopefully it won't ever come to that. And the P5 rarely agree on anything.

IMO, both the North Koreans and in turn Iran will have deployable nucs. And nothing may be able to stop that.

The US will need to learn to live in a highly weaponized world. Somehow we managed to avoid nuclear war during the Cold War. We can do it again.

North Korea and Iran are not the USSR and PRC of the Cold War era. It would be a grave mistake IMO to believe in that paradigm.

Freedom and Justice for some, the others not so much

Hopefully that ratio would improve.

But if the PRC and others have anything to do with it, and all they do is replace with someone from the same circle, the status quo will remain.

Dan

Un and his supporters should be charged with various crimes from the Hague or some such similar legal body. Hopefully Un & Co. would die during the war. Painfully if possible …

I'm sure if Iran gets a little jumpy with their new nucs once they get them from North Korea. The Israeli Air Force may have something to say about that. But Iran is not like North Korea. It would never be occupied, it's too big, etc. Bigger than Iraq.

The best thing that could happen there is a leadership change somehow. With less hardline leadership. But the divides between the various factions in that region run long and deep. Like in A'stan and there will be no real "peace" there for the same reason.