"China Will Surpass US in AI Around 2025, Says ..." Topic

… Google's Eric Schmidt.

"In April, as Eric Schmidt watched a computer program defeat China's top go player in a ground-breaking match in the Chinese city of Wuzhen, the executive chairman of Google's parent company was struck less by the considerable innovations displayed by human and machine than by the audience: "To me the more interesting thing [was that] all the top computer science people in China had shown up."

It showed, Schmidt said, the importance placed on AI development by both the Chinese government and its people, and was a postcard from the future competition for AI dominance.

"I'm assuming our [U.S.] lead will continue over the next five years and then that China will catch up extremely quickly," the Google leader told the Center for New American Security's Paul Scharre at the Artificial Intelligence & Global Security Summit on Wednesday.

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Amicalement
Armand

Isn't the question more of 'when will the AI surpass us?' than 'will the Chinese surpass us?'

I don't think that AI is growing as fast as the pundits keep claiming. Go is still a fixed, mathematical problem, just like chess or shogi. While it might take fancy computer architecture with lots of parallel or branching paths, it's still a mathematical problem to solve.

While China's growth is slowing (you can't sustain 7-8% annual growth for more than about 30 years, three doublings), I still expect them to end up with *at least* twice the GDP as the US (roughly half the GDP per capita). Their current GDP is nearly 12bnUSD, ~60% of the US's 18.6bn.

My personal guess is that they are aiming to get their standard of living/GDP per capita up to US levels, which means about 4x the US GDP (~3 doublings from now, but as China's growth slows down that time will grow. If China averages 6% growth, that will be ~12year doublings)

But I think the real question is WHEN will the Chinese really grok the QC/QA culture. Once they do that, their military capabilities will go up by somewhere between double and an order of magnitude.

Increasingly, computers are helping to write software. When the AIs are preparing new AIs comparing nations is probably pointless.

I'm currently working on a computer game. The ai is by Ezra Sidran, a leading expert who has designed real time systems for the us army.
I don't do ai myself but Ezra sent me a link today to an article about ai.
You can fool image recognition ai by changing just a single pixel.
I think we're safe for a while yet.

Come to think of it, he's posting a series of articles on ai which readers might find interesting.
Here's the first
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Destroy all robots now, before it's too late!
Destroy all toasters, before we are toast!
Remember Sarah Connor! Remember the Twelve Colonies Of Kobol!

Dan

Yeah, I'm with CC. It just means that the Chinese will be meeting the Cylons before we do.

Dang, I need to get that Viper MK I done quicker than I thought!!!!!