"Are the USA and Russia in a new Cold War?" Topic

Is this off limits? I am asking from a historical perspective. Do you think the USA and Russian governments are entering a new Cold War period? Please explain your reasoning.

Quite possibly. And in short, I'd lay the blame on

But this is only my personal observation and opinion.

Even though President Obama wanted to reduce nuke weapons. In 2016 the US approved a $400 USD Billion upgrade and improvement of our nuclear weapons program. Its estimated the US Nuclear Modernization program will cost upward of $1 USD Trillion dollars before its finished.

Since 2014 Russia military started modernization efforts, including modernization of its strategic nuclear forces.

So I'd say we are at the beginning of a new arms race. We'll see if it turns into another cold war.

So we're talking about NOW and not the actual 1946-1989 Cold War (based on profound ideological differences between East and West)?

Because now that Russians dropped Marxism like a hot potato there are more differences between Russia and China (which, despite its thin veneer of free enterprise, remained Communist) than between Russia and the West. And with the exception of the proxy war in Ukraine, Russia is not making an expansionist move anywhere else. They might want to look tough as they conduct exercises, but they aren't conducting any other massive territorial moves.

Also, though the USSR had multiple exclusive trading partners, and controlled a closed trading block that spanned both hemispheres, the modern Russian Federation has absolute control of trade in no other nation but itself.

I just see Russia as a trade and military rival, just like we have others, but not as part of a massive Cold War bloc, of the type that split the UN so noticeably for decades the way the Soviet Union did.

So, if you want to look for a Cold War analogue today, just look at what two opposing ideological blocs are creating the most tension and polarization in the UN right now. That's where you'll find your new Cold War.

My opinion of course.

Dan
This topic might have longevity if moved over to Ultramodern Warfare:
TMP link

@piper- Giving Putin a free ride?

If it is not COLD WAR 2.0 … It's pretty darn close, I'd think … My reasoning is if nothing else it looks and feels at least somewhat like the COLD WAR … Especially with a lot of old school CCCP fans in charge.

Of course we have to remember the US has to depend on Russia to get our astronauts to the ISS. With there aging rockets. At @ 1 million dollars a pop, IIRC. So that is something both sides have to consider. At least a little bit.

I think Putin is certainly attempting to recreate some of the influence Moscow had during the times of the USSR.

He has attempted to form a custom union of the former soviet states for that purpose as a challenge to the EU and the US. One of the many reasons why Putin is opposed to the former soviet countries turning away from Moscow is that it prevents his idea taking shape.

That those former soviet countries want no part of his union is conveniently ignored and provokes violence such as annexing Crimea or invading Georgia.

I can't follow piper's argument as many countries joined NATO for a better future not to strangle Russia nor to force it to capitulate. Those former soviet countries had experienced what Moscow had to offer during the cold war and didn't want to return to it.

Russia might not be trying to take over the world, but they are not exactly playing nice. As per the old russian ways there is real politik with great power ambition. Cyber warfare for instance seems to have been employed against Estonia in I believe -06 more or less shutting down banks for about a week.
This is done while saying NATO is an agressor moving bases closer to Russian borders. I would say the people living in said countries should be masters of their own fate. They wouldn't have joined NATO if they didn't see a need for it.
Russia might not be able to take on NATO or washington, but they can really make life miserable for their neighbours.

Putin may too also just want Russia to still stay "relevant" … They are part of the UN P5, he wants everybody to remember they were a Big Boy on the block. And still is/can be. Even though everybody knows they are not the "power" that the once were. And that may very much "upset" Putin & his cronies, etc.

But generally the Russian's are not the big threat to the West that they once were. Regardless … they still have a lot of Nucs … And everyone knows that too …

The so called Cold War never ended if it existed in the first place. So much of what we believe(d) is a Medía manipulation. In fact, all dominating parties are further dominated by money, which buys knowledge, and that is power.

There are c. 1,600 billionaires in the world. They know each other and have their own shared agenda, not just rival interests.

The uber rich originating from the nations belong to this transcendent "club" of "citizens of the world". In their own eyes, their families are the only true "citizens", because they have rights and freedoms that no one else have. They only have to satisfy each other in order to augment their personal security.

Russia as a nation is a rival of the West, not an enemy. Ditto China. ISIS is an enemy to everyone, being an aberration to the existing system. And ISIS is a flash in the pan, along with all the other aberrant players that come and go.

During the "real" Cold War, unacknowledged agents made sure that the USSR got nuclear capability and was built into "the enemy". The real powers don't care which "side" is on top at a given time, just as long as the perceived sides arm themselves and bolster the flow of money from military expenditures. Building and maintaining an army is good for the economy that is floundering.

The Cold War, so far, has benefitted the US above all others economically. Without it, our post war economy would have floundered along with most others.

So, no, there is no return to a "cold war" scenario. The Medía loves to ask the question and stir things up. They get more clicks that way. And pay per click is a growing business…………..

GWA,

Sounds like you've read this.

Dan

There are c. 1,600 billionaires in the world. They know each other and have their own shared agenda, not just rival interests

Why do I get the feeling someone is getting ready to start talking about the Illuminati?

Heck, if you can't beat them then you may as well join them!

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They are waiting for you to join them.

Seriously, 1 million dollars per launch is what the military lose down the back of the couch But a billion here, billion there all adds up till you're talking real money.

I think part of the problem is that from Russia's point of view, they are being encircled by NATO in contravention of the agreement. The EU was pushed by the UK primarily, at the urging of the US to bring the COMECON countries into the EU and into NATO to extend the pact. Russia historicaly has seen these countries as the glacis against aggression and gets very jumpy if that is threatened in any way. Given past invasions of Russia it is hardly surprising, nor is the fact they will try and push back.

The US Congress just made a really tragic mistake with these new sanctions on Russia. Unfortunately this is very short sighted of them and all driven by politics.

I agree. These days if you don't jump on the bandwagon and say that post-Communist Russia is the boogie man, you will be viewed with suspicion.

Shaming is not the best motivator for making wise decisions.

Dan

Not much confidence that the Putin-Biden talks will amount to much if anything.

link

This article was particularly scathing.

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I found this particular comment resonating:

e typical U.S. negotiating strategy in dealing with adversaries is to present a laundry list of grievances and demand concessions that amount to outright surrender regarding every point. Conversely, any U.S. concessions offered range from meager to nonexistent. It is the essence of capitulation diplomacy, and it captures accurately Washington's dealings with Russia throughout the post-Cold War era.

You can also see this approach in other negotiations eg US offers to Palestinians.

In addition to this the US does not engage in diplomacy at all if it can't win – eg SC Sea. There's no negotiation between US and China here. The US literally avoids the issue diplomatically.

It seems the "either all or nothing" approach is preferable to any kind of compromise even if the all or nothing approach risks war in the long run.

Yes … it is clear … Putin "won" … 'nuff said or to the DH I go …