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"Ukraine War Heats Up" Topic

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Tango01 Supporting Member of TMP20 Jul 2017 9:01 p.m. PST

"Ukraine's Defense Ministry said on July 20 that eight Ukrainian soldiers were killed and 10 were wounded in the previous 24 hours as Russia-backed separatists stepped up shelling attacks on their positions in the country's east.

The ministry said on its Facebook page that four servicemen were killed and seven were wounded on July 20, while on the previous day, four soldiers were killed and three wounded.

A ministry spokesman had initially said that nine soldiers were killed and five wounded over the past two days…"
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Personal logo Cacique Caribe Supporting Member of TMP20 Jul 2017 11:52 p.m. PST

In a Russia-Turkey war, I can already imagine Ukraine becoming Turkey's ally, and then trying to get all of NATO to come to the assistance of that alliance.

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Pan Marek Supporting Member of TMP21 Jul 2017 4:40 a.m. PST

Of course. When will Putin have a POTUS less interested in this?

jsmcc9121 Jul 2017 7:36 a.m. PST

We had a POTUS when it happened in 2014 that did nothing, so there cannot be any comparisons. Putin went in to the Crimea without any opposition. I have friends in the Ukraine and I pray for their safety each day. These attacks are nothing new. They go on everyday in the Ukraine.

kiltboy21 Jul 2017 9:51 a.m. PST

Of course there can be comparisons.
One imposed sanctions and took steps to isolate.
One seems to think Putin is his new best buddy and that sanctions should be lifted.

Personal logo Cacique Caribe Supporting Member of TMP21 Jul 2017 10:14 a.m. PST

Why would the West get involved in a Russian "backyard" issue, defending a former member of the USSR in a sovereignty dispute with its former associate over the exact terms of their disassociation?

What could possibly go wrong with that? :)

PS. Our great ally Turkey would love for NATO/US to jump right in, on the side of Ukraine. And we know that we can always count on them to have our back (to stab):
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jsmcc9121 Jul 2017 10:18 a.m. PST

There are no comparisons at all. There is no information at all anywhere that states the sanctions are going to be lifted. It is exactly the opposite in fact as of the statements on record in July. The sanctions have done nothing if you talk to the people that are there seeing it first hand. It is offensive to to misinform since there have been Ukrainian people dying since 2014. The war will go on until NATO decides to get involved or something else bigger. What CC mentions could happen.

Pan Marek Supporting Member of TMP21 Jul 2017 1:33 p.m. PST

I have family in Poland who are worried about this. True, Obama did not start WWIII over it, but he got the west to back sanctions. Right now, it would appear that someone would like to remove them.

Pan Marek Supporting Member of TMP21 Jul 2017 1:36 p.m. PST

Jsmcc- We know Trump would like to. Thankfully, so far Congress wants to increase them.
Perhaps arms to Ukraine?

But"NATO getting involved" would seem to be a ticket to WWIII.
If you have a suggestion on how to avoid WWIII in the face of direct NATO involvement, such would be welcome.

USAFpilot Supporting Member of TMP21 Jul 2017 2:24 p.m. PST

I was very happy to recently read in the Washington Post that the CIA is no longer funding the so called "moderate" rebels in Syria which was a huge mistake from the previous administration. Hopefully this will lead to better relations with Russia. In time a peace settlement will be reached in Ukraine. (Sanctions have obviously not worked.)

ITALWARS Supporting Member of TMP Inactive Member21 Jul 2017 3:23 p.m. PST

The way to peace could be a gentlemen agreement with Putin which in fact share common interests with us and not only drop sanctions which are rightly feeled as it was with the absurd bombings over Belgrade and Kossovo as a sort of treachery…and the last most intelligent and natural option for US and Europe would be to rank the actual illegal government in Kiev as terrorist and delegittimate it

Personal logo Cacique Caribe Supporting Member of TMP21 Jul 2017 4:37 p.m. PST

USAFPilot: "I was very happy to recently read in the Washington Post that the CIA is no longer funding the so called "moderate" rebels in Syria which was a huge mistake from the previous administration"

Thank God Almighty! That's the best news I've heard in a very, very long time.

We've been funding and arming those guys for some time now, and yet some of those same weapons have already been found in Al-Qaeda weapon caches inside Russian territory.

Some claim that the CIA stingers taken in 2012 by Al-Qaeda in Libya went straight to Afghanistan, but a few of those may have also ended up in Russia as well. Personally, I think most of those were used against Qaddafi's military. But that's just a guess.

Let's just say, something has to be done to lessen tensions with Russia right now. Arming our proven enemies is not really any sort of solution.

* I would not be shocked if it was discovered that the Russian jets that the Syrian Turks shot down were taken out by some of that missing Surface-to-Air missile equipment.

Aristonicus Inactive Member21 Jul 2017 8:41 p.m. PST

The Eastern Ukraine conflict has entered a positional warfare stage but there are occasional battles. The latest that I have heard of was this one:

Fighting in Zholobok June 8, 2017

Author: Yuri Podolyaka – Yurasumy [notable Ukrainian war blogger]

Source: link

Today June 7 at 6:00 am regime Kiev launched a surprise attack in the north, in front of Lugansk, in the town of Zhelobok. The fighting spread rapidly across the front line of 10-15 km, [along the Bakhmutka Highway] and reached a very high intensity.

According to the enemy [Ukrainian Army Brigades' facebook page] the battle began at 06:00 hours, with a shelling of the Novorussian line, followed by the assault on the town of Zholobok.

The attack was carried out by a company of the 93rd (Kharkov) Brigade with the support of artillery and three tanks.

"The main objective of the offensive was to" cut "the salient of the separatist defensive line that is at an acute angle with our positions, which was convenient for the bombardment of our positions and caused us losses. Therefore, we received the informal approval of the command to rectify the line so at 11.00 this cut was cut.

We hit the height of 175.9 we also entered the village of Zholobok and hold positions in it. Now the separatists are in an unfavorable situation, since as a result of the rectification of the front some of their blocks are exposed to fire. The separatists and have begun to evacuate these advanced positions Therefore, we can say that the target has been reached … our casualties, 16 injured and 8 dead."

Map of the sector
- For those who are not able to read the Cyrillic, Zhelobok is on the left, where the two arrows converge, and height 175 on the right and in the red circle between both, the village of Krimskoye, the base of the Ukrainian forces.
The T-1303 is the famous "Bahmutka route" where the numbered checkpoints are located (see below), the scene of hard fighting in the winter of 2014-2015, the river is the Severksy Donets (North Donets), The Ukrainian forces occupy several bridge heads in the south bank.

Yura Sumy:

If we look at the map, we see that the 175.9 (1) elevation is the dominant height of the zone, and I understand the enemy's interest in recovering it, since they lost that position in 2015

Here is a map of the same area at the end of April 2015:

Therefore, after the loss of height 175.9, the Novorussian checkpoints have become very vulnerable. The height is a key position, and must be recovered, or some of the positions have to abandoned. The counterattack will be difficult, since attacking from the village of Smeloe (SE of the position) and from the road is very difficult in view of the abrupt slope, streams and extensive cleared areas without cover.

Aristonicus Inactive Member21 Jul 2017 8:55 p.m. PST

Another account of this small battle.

The Ukrainian side denies today's attack [on June 7], but reports that since 6 June morning, heavy 152mm artillery and 82mm and 120mm mortar are used – forbidden by the Minsk accords – in the area near the town of Frunze (near Zhelobok).

According to the ATO press center, the Ukrainian side maintains the front line in the town of Krimskoye, but since the start of the day one soldier has died and seven have been injured. In addition, Ukraine reports that one of the working drones has been shot down to adjust the artillery fire.

All these reports refer to a sensitive spot for the People's Republic of Lugansk [LPR], close to the localities of Kirovsk, Stajanov and Debaltsevo, a new area of ​​confrontation in Donbass. The novelty is that this area of ​​confrontations, although close to Debaltsevo, is under the responsibility of the LPR. So far, the war's hottest battles at Donbass – at the Svetlodarsk arc, Avdeevka and the Mariupol area – were located in the DPR's area of ​​responsibility.

"The enemy has launched an attack on the town of Zhelobok, while at the same time bombing residential areas from nearby villages," Colonel Andrey Marochko, speaking on behalf of LPR's military command, told one of the local media the morning of June 7th. At the same time the information about the evacuation of the civilians of several nearby villages began to appear on the part of the Ministry of Defense of the LPR. These are the localities of Donetskiy, Jelobok and Frunze in the area controlled by the LPR and Krimskoye across the front line.

Jelobok, whose existence many have known today, is a small town in the vicinity of the line of separation. The locality is very small: according to the 2001 census, there were 154 residents. Now they are even less. The town counted on a Rural Council that depended on the greater locality of Novomoskovskoye, now under control of the Ukrainian Army and that also suffered because of the battle of 7 of June. According to the mayor of both villages, on Wednesday afternoon, the civil-military administration prepared the evacuation of the children.

On the other side of the Jelobok overhang is the Alexandrovka-Lisichansk-Lugansk road, strategic for the RPL. It is known as the "Bajmut highway" and there is the famous number 31 checkpoint of the Ukrainian Army, which led to strong and bloody battles in January 2015.

It is likely that the location where checkpoint number 31 was located took about a week under the control of the Ukrainian Army. The reality is that the Ukrainian troops have advanced considerably in the steppe between the localities of the zone and the hills, whose catches are sometimes only known months after the facts. In this way, the first steps of this "frog jump" occurred in December 2016, but were not revealed to the Ukrainian press until the end of January 2017.

With the fight around Bajmutka something out of the ordinary has happened. First, the 1.5km advance and the catch of several important hills has been revealed by volunteers. Then, on June 2, all of a sudden, the information appeared in the official Facebook profile of the 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Army. In a message titled "Steps," it announced the victory of the "soldiers of the 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade of Kharkiv to improve tactical positions, with a 1.5km advance in the gray area in the Bajmutka area."

"Capturing dominant hills allows better control of the enemy in favorable positions for defense," the message said, probably written by the press office in consultation with the commander.

In addition, the 93rd Brigade reported that it had prepared the operation for months with "hard intelligence work" and had not suffered casualties, despite the enemy's artillery at the end of the operation. Since Zhelobok, as well as the road and Debaltsevo were under Ukrainian control in January 2015, the representatives of the 93rd Brigade do not consider it to be an infringement of the Minsk agreements and it is not necessary to describe this operation as offensive.

Interestingly, information on the operation was later refuted by Defense Ministry spokesman Andriy Lysenko, who said on the same day that the Ukrainian Army "has not crossed the line of demarcation and does not violate the Minsk accords" [false in both cases]. The news about the operation quickly disappeared from the Facebook profile of the 93rd Brigade.

However, the Brigade stands on the hills along the road. The village of Zhelobok is thus virtually surrounded on three sides and Ukrainian troops have the ability to control the road by fire, which is a potential risk for the towns of Stajanov and Debaltsevo [in the LPR and the DPR respectively]. The positions of the LPR in the area of ​​Zhelobok and Donetskiy are the last defense of the city of Stajanov.

As a result of the capture of the dominant heights in the area of ​​Jelobok, the Ukrainian Army "has cut", by fire, two of the positions of the LPR: ​​the one in the locality of Donetskiy and one near Frunze, where it controls the surroundings. This situation will become intolerable for LPR.

According to the latest information, during the attempt to advance on the area of ​​the locality of Zhelobok, the Ukrainian troops lost up to ten soldiers. This was announced by the LPR militia according to Interfax.

"As a result of the attempted assault, the Ukrainian Army suffered casualties of up to ten people," Interfax was quoted as saying by Andriy Marochko, a representative of LPR's people's militia. According to Marochko, a soldier of the LPR and a civilian were injured. The Ukrainian side, meanwhile, claimed that seven Ukrainian soldiers had been injured and one had died in the course of the battle.

The LPR forces holding Height 175.9 were part of the 4th Brigade, those in Zhelobok are a 'territorial' battalion that was formerly the "Prizrak" Brigade.

Tango01 Supporting Member of TMP22 Jul 2017 11:27 a.m. PST

Quite interesting… thanks!.


ITALWARS Supporting Member of TMP Inactive Member22 Jul 2017 12:30 p.m. PST

extremely interesting..also from pure military /wargame point of view but'll be quite sad for me to play) article and above all maps…thanks Aristonicus
untill Ucraina attacks with 3 thanks and a company of infantry to wipe our barricades it'll be ok..but we are very close to the limit…i think that if a more important battle ́ll be the end for the Kiev/Maidan Place outlwaw Gvt…Russia , as per tradition prefer the action than talks, will unlash his regular forces and Western countries will have to deal with a fait accompli…a paper tiger in the eyes of Moscow

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