"North Korean Scenarios - Looking More Likely?" Topic

This little tea pot looks like it could boil over soon, and I see no evidence either side is willing to turn down the heat.

Claims are China is/has offered to help reduce tensions, but thus far, other than a little rhetoric, and perhaps a slowdown in coal deliveries, it appears to me that there hasn't been much concrete progress on this front.

All the while, North Korea continues to launch missiles on a weekly basis, continues their ballistic missile research, and no doubt is also pressing forward on their nuke weapons development and production too.

Most Western pundits seem to believe something must be done, and that we cannot permit North Korea to develop viable, ICBMs AND nuke warheads to go on them. Looks like this will need to be dealt with/resolved in the next 3.5 years, or it will be too late (same goes for Iran, in my personal opinion, too).

It's so bad, Hawaii is now looking at steps it can/should take for civil defense, and even the state of Washington's governmental officials are being criticized for their law preventing civil protection plans development in the case of a nuclear missile strike on their cities.

China claims not to want further progress and tensions, but at every turn they aid and defend the Norks, and have even provided them with the equipment and technology to develop ICBMs, if not the outright blueprints/schematics, and/or missiles themselves.

Seems to me they are using NK as a proxy to distract, weaken, and stall the USA and her allies in the region, while suffering little blowback because of that.

If it goes to a shooting war, I suspect Mattis is right, it will be horrific, in terms of casualties, given the large number of people NK can put into the field, e.g. regular soldiers, as well as reservists (millions, if the reservists are included, and NK has one of, if not THE largest army on the planet, in terms of soldiers in uniform).

My guess too, if push comes to shove, is just like in the 1950s, China will come to North Korea's aid as well (unclear if they'll try to remove him, and install someone more malleable to their desires).

At the very least though, it does present an interesting set of issues and problems for one to consider, up to and even including anti-missile defense for the USA, and her allies (test on Tuesday, for that).

Looks like lots of decent fodder for the aerial and/or naval wargamer, and perhaps even for some wanting to run covert land/naval ops as well.

Strategic missile launches/attacks, and defense could be gamed in a fairly simplistic manner, if you want to try those, though hidden, mobile missile launchers would certainly make things rather interesting. Targets for those include: SK, Guam, Okinawa, Japan, possibly the Philippines, Hawaii, and the western portion of the continental USA. Perhaps even throw in Beijing too, if Un feels threatened by the Chinese leadership.

Land-based fighting and battles will be quite large-scale affairs, and no doubt, brutal, meat-grinder encounters, with such large numbers, limited NK tech, and the rough terrain.

Can't imagine SK and the USA have enough bullets, bombs, and other ordnance to deal with such a situation, especially given the depletion of the latter so much of late, in trying to deal with AQ and ISIS.

Not sure how the South Koreans, and/or USA can effectively stop hordes of North Koreans swarming over the border, or their bombardment of Seoul into oblivion, short of using nukes, which obviously, we'd prefer not to do.

If NK pops the cork though, on that, I suspect ALL restrictions/bets may be off on their use in retaliation.

Not sure if we'd use them pre-emptively to take NK's forces down, but imagine it would be very tempting in order to keep US/SK military and civilian casualties to a minimum, just like was done at the end of WWII.

No doubt, a lot of the professional wargamers are working overtime on strategies and tactics to deal with the above, since it appears that a renewed conflict is likely, given the current vectors by both sides.

Not sure I'd want to game the large-scale, land-based battles, due to the above, but air and naval scenarios would certainly be interesting, especially if China sends in some of their stealth jets to help NK redress the balance against America's F-22s.

Running the strategic/tactical missile/rocket battles might be interesting too, if you don't dwell on the casualties of cities targeted, if/when some of them get through the missile defenses, and/or aren't taken out by the air force jets and drones. At least that should be on a much smaller scale than a nuke exchange by the USA/NATO vs. the Soviet Union, back in the day.

Searching for, and trying to take out the mobile missile launchers could be an interesting, and challenging game.

Thoughts?

To support my theory above, China is still advocating for "more dialogue", despite the fact that tensions and test-firings by NK are on a major upswing, and 20+ years of discussions, negotiations, and even aid by the West have done nothing to deter North Korea from its path, or to even slow things down:

link

Three US carriers are, or soon will be in the region, which is also very unusual too. Clearly, we are trying to send a strong message, but it appears to me to be falling on deaf ears.

Let's hope they're all "what if" scenarios.

The only alternative to "more dialogue" in some form or other (sanctions being a dialogue of sorts) is "start shooting" so what exactly do you propose that the Chinese government should propose? And I note that sanctions were the tipping point that left the Japanese Government/Military with little option (from their perspective at least) but to seize oil wells and so need to attack the US.

China is an enabler of the North Korean ruler and his regime.

They could cut off ALL trade, for starters.

The Chinese do not want NK starting a war. They will assassinate Kim or have him abdicate, and put their own puppet on the thrown before they let NK send missles around the globe.

I'm wondering if China does want NK to start a war?

I mean what has China got to lose if it did all kick off?
Answer: nothing.

It'd mean NK would take the damage and China not lose anything materially, and China would gain by getting a proxy to hurt, or severely damage, either the US, South Korea and/or Japan.

China's on a win-win.

Thinking it through the US may be better to just nuke NK from word go? Less chance of NK damaging South Korea in a protracted war?

Note: I'm just thinking aloud here and playing 'Devils advocate'. Really hope it doesn't turn out like that.

"we will all go together when we go"

Going nuclear would be a horrible idea. It would set a precedent that other nations would use to justify going nuclear in their own regional conflicts. That is something the world just doesn't need.

China doesn't want a war in Korea since the North would probably lose, reunification would follow and that would leave the spectre from a Chinese perspective of large numbers of US troops on their border

China has a lot to lose.

NK refugees, loss of trade, possibility of being drawn into a war, possibility of the results of a nuclear 'accident' crossing the border…

Sure there's a lot of other possible effects.

Yes, as many Generals and former say it would be a real mess. With Seoul being only about 35 miles from the DMZ. The Norks do have a long range FA piece, the M-1978, IIRC with RAP can reach Seoul. Again Seoul being one of the most densely populated cities on the planet.

However, the Norks have plenty of rockets and missiles like SCUD, FROG, etc. types and more that could even if only a few with Bio/Chem rds., hit. Would still kill a lot of the citie's denizens. A lot meaning, IMO any number is bad but 50, 100, etc., is much worse. If it is one of your relations it's catastrophic obviously.

As I posted on another thread here. The ROKs and US have the assets and firepower to stop such an attack. But Seoul may still be hit with some of all the rockets & missiles the Norks have. If those can't take out by TLAMs/CMs, CAS, etc. Or intercepted by US ADA like THAAD. Or even the Patriot. Like during GW II.

And just to note the Norks do have the M-1978 170mm SPA. With RAP it's max range may be around 35-6 miles(?). But I'd think most of those would be suppressed/gone. Again by TLAMs/CMs etc.

The situation as I see it if the Kimchi hits the fan there. The US (and it's UN allies ?) would almost simultaneously with CMs take out all the Nork ADA and all their known missile/rocket artillery. Along with the Nork AF. With both naval and air CMs.

Then CAP/CAS goes in to clean up anything left. With the Nork ADA gone. And most of it's AF. Maybe even then drop some Massive Ordinance Penetrators(MOP). The Hardheaded version of the MOAB, from C-130s once air superiority is achieved. And it has to come rapidly. The MOP would be useful in taking out the Nork heavily entrenched C3. And yes that should/would include Un and his cronies. And some MOABs could be used on some targets too.

US/ROK(UN?) FA along the DMZ could take out Nork ADA and FA in range as well. And any troop concentrations once the ADA/FA is gone.

Regardless there will be a lot of loses, on all sides. With the majority coming from the Norks. Plus the PRC would probably take a fit. But they don't want to have a Korean War II. And without Un it would be better for the Koreas and the PRC overall.

But I fear even with this massive air offensive some Nork missiles will still hit Seoul.

And I wouldn't underestimate the ROKs. They want to have one Korea unified under a democracy. Not as Un wants with a brutal "communist" dictatorship. And the ROK armaments, e.g. their K1 MBT is supposed to be one of the most high tech new AFVs around. Better than even the "best" Nork.

Something else, even with all the Norks "mechanization" with modern/more updated MBTs, APCs, etc. They still won't have the numbers or possibly even the tech. And still today generally they are primarily an Infantry/Light Infantry army. Their strength lies in their FA of all types, it seems to me. But IMO, based on the scenario I outlined above. Much of that FA, etc. will be gone after the massive initial missile/air strikes.

Yes, they may have many dug in along the DMZ, etc. But we know how to handle that sort of target(s). And if they are "massed", that only makes them a big(ger) target(s).

Also China does not a want USA ally, the ROKs on their border/across the Yalu. Anymore than Russia/Putin wants US/NATO troops in Poland along his border.

But with the PRC, I think if we play the business card/$$$$. 90% of Nork trade is with the PRC. But if we could convince them with the ROK being on their border. Would be a better "deal" for them economically than dealing with a worldwide pariah, like Un and his regime. But that paradigm would be a pretty hard sell to the PRC, at least at this point.
However as I have said before. The PRC are probably the most "Capitalistic" Communists on the planet.

Regardless, I think it will be very hard to stop all of the Nork missiles/rockets from hitting Seoul. And that is really the rub/bottom line, IMO. How many ROK civilians will die before all the Nork assets in range will be eliminated ?

Five minutes after NK declares war, there will be a Chinese-inspired change of management and peace will be restored. The Chinese want a friendly country on their border.

Perhaps this is why the purges Un has instituted of late, he has eliminated anyone who was linked to the Chinese. I think he can do the math too guys, and wants to make sure there wasn't a Chinese inspired coup.

That is not to say there might not be one…but coups are very iffy things. They often have a 50/50 chance of success and hinge on how many people are really willing to trade the "devil they know" for the "devil they don't". I am pretty convinced that the Chinese will try and launch a coup if things get ugly…but if it fails…god help them.

I agree with BB and Legion.

Cruise missiles and air attacks do seem pretty much the strategy of the day, though I'm not sure that will be enough, and wouldn't be surprised to see human-wave attacks flowing across the border, with their brain-washed 6 million men in arms (okay, perhaps only 5 million, since the other 1 million will be spaced throughout the country, or on the northern border with China).

Do we have enough cruise missiles, bombs, and bullets to do the job of wiping out NK's armies and equipment?

I'm skeptical we do.

Yep, I see it as a win-win for China if this were to occur, provided NK doesn't fall to the SK/USA, since it just bleeds both out, from a military standpoint, severely weakening us.

I can't see the Chinese letting NK lose, no matter what, so they'll step in militarily to aid them, if/when they start losing, just like the did in the 1950s.

Xi and China seem to be pressing hard on issues they care about, e.g. the South China Sea, and East China Sea regions, so they don't seem to be worried about losing trade. My guess is they think we'd be hurt just as bad, if not worse, if trade is cut off, or curtailed. I'm not sure I agree with that, given our trade imbalance with them.

Seems to me the NK refugee issue is overblown. I suspect China can/could/would seal its border, and enforce it rather ruthlessly. They're not shy about using their military on their own people (Tiananmen Square), so I doubt they'll be with the North Koreans.

A special "soup" recipe for Un would probably be the best solution, though I'm not sure that is likely to happen/work.

Since this topic has become a warfare discussion rather than a gaming scenario discussion, it has been moved to the Ultramodern Warfare board.

I see this as a large opportunity for China. China could well let North Korea could initiate things and step in and change the name from North Korea to South China. Would make it easy to contain the cesspool and operate it under new management. Perhaps even a name change from North Korea to simply Korea.

Bottom line … whatever is happening, China has been pulling the strings all along. All along.

Everyone's forgotten everything about the artificial islands (Spratleys), haven't they?

And when China needs to divert the world's attention back to the Middle East, it gets Iran to hiccup.

Dan

Dan-
That is exactly what I had in mind when I made my post above. That and the fact that China rolled thru NK the last time it got itself on the losing side of a conflict.

Bingo! Korean War Part Deux coming up, courtesy of the PRC.

Dan
PS. The US is going to wish it had kept all its trade and arms sales promises to the ROC/Taiwan.

Much like Russia in relation to Ukraine, China's interest in N. Korea is geopolitical. N. Korea provides China a buffer against the US threat in S. Korea. If Korea is unified and under American influence, those much ballyhooed THAAD missiles could be moved north and China would be contained at her southern borders.

How would we like it if China bases anti-missile systems in Canada or Mexico near the border?

Like THAAD would stay in Korea after the reunification.

China isn't threatening to nuke anyone within throwing range!